Mistake Replay

Famous investor mistakes, replayed through the engine.

For each case: the original thesis, what went wrong, and which Prism mistake patterns and competing frameworks would have flagged the trade at the time. Pattern reconstruction, not real-time backtest.Curated, sourced, hand-checked — these are the kinds of receipts only a multi-framework engine can produce.

  1. Burry & cannabis — momentum vs fundamentals

    Decision point 2018-09

    Michael Burry · TLRY

    Cannabis stocks ran 5× then collapsed 90%. The momentum-trap pattern was the one signal turning red.

    momentum trapdilution riskOpen the replay

  2. Einhorn & shorting consensus quality — the cost of being early

    Decision point 2017-05

    David Einhorn · TSLA

    A correct fundamental thesis (cash burn + governance flags) for a stock that ran 10× before resolving.

    momentum trapOpen the replay

  3. Ackman & Valeant — the "platform" that wasn't

    Decision point 2015-03

    Bill Ackman · VRX

    Pershing Square took a $4B Valeant stake at the peak — the leverage and accounting flags were already loud.

    leverage trapaccounting red flagquality trapOpen the replay

  4. Klarman / Lampert & Sears — the value-trap masterclass

    Decision point 2014-06

    Eddie Lampert (and notable value investors) · SHLD

    Cheap on book value, dying on operating cash flow. The value-trap pattern lit up for a decade before bankruptcy.

    value trapleverage trapgrowth decelerationOpen the replay

  5. Buffett & Tesco — the "huge mistake"

    Decision point 2012-08

    Warren Buffett · TSCO.L

    Buffett later called the Tesco position "a huge mistake." Quality-trap warning lights were already on.

    accounting red flaggrowth decelerationOpen the replay

Why these are different from Twitter takes

Anyone can critique a famous mistake with hindsight. Each case here shows the specific Prism mistake patterns the engine would have triggered, the specific competing frameworks that would have rejected the trade, and links to primary sources for the original thesis. The point isn't to mock the investor — it's to demonstrate that a structured pattern engine has the explicit language to have flagged the warning, and that this language is the same one running on every memo today.

For research and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Conduct independent due diligence before making any investment decision.