AAPL
Apple Inc.TechnologyConsumer ElectronicsQuality
$294.31 · 15min delay
β 1.06A high-quality mega-cap compounder trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $193.4652-wk high $294.90
Mkt Cap
$4.32T
P/E
—
PEG
2.57
P/B
40.54
Dividend
0.37%
ROE
141.5%
About the business
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers exclusive original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
Who would buy AAPL?
Consensus 26/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
2 6 7
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 141.5% clears "> 20.0%".
- AQR / Asness· Quality Factor86/100
ROE > 20% 141.5% clears "> 20.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksInsider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 55/100
4 insiders sold $95.8M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 5,084 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVINSON ARTHUR D | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | May 6, 2026 | 5,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LEVINSON ARTHUR D | Director | Open-market sell | May 6, 2026 | 250,000 | $284.76 | $71.19M | Direct |
| PAREKH KEVAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 23, 2026 | 1,534 | $275.00 | $422K | Direct |
| PAREKH KEVAN | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Apr 15, 2026 | 10,928 | — | — | Direct |
| BORDERS BEN | Officer | Transaction | Apr 15, 2026 | 1,717 | — | — | Direct |
| O'BRIEN DEIRDRE | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 2, 2026 | 30,002 | $255.35 | $7.66M | Direct |
| COOK TIMOTHY D | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 2, 2026 | 64,949 | $254.23 | $16.51M | Direct |
| O'BRIEN DEIRDRE | Officer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 64,317 | — | — | Direct |
| KHAN SABIH | Chief Operating Officer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 64,317 | — | — | Direct |
| COOK TIMOTHY D | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 131,576 | — | — | Direct |
| NEWSTEAD JENNIFER | General Counsel | Transaction | Mar 13, 2026 | 60,208 | — | — | Direct |
| LEVINSON ARTHUR D | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Feb 26, 2026 | 1,113 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JUNG ANDREA | Director | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 1,255 | — | — | Direct |
| LEVINSON ARTHUR D | Director | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 1,113 | — | — | Direct |
| SUGAR RONALD D | Director | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 1,255 | — | — | Direct |
| WAGNER SUSAN L | Director | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 1,255 | — | — | Direct |
| AUSTIN WANDA M | Director | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 1,255 | — | — | Direct |
| GORSKY ALEX | Director | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 1,255 | — | — | Direct |
| LOZANO MONICA C. | Director | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 1,255 | — | — | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.6% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +5,084 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week highs despite weak framework scores — market enthusiasm is running ahead of the fundamentals most legends look at.
What would AAPL do to your portfolio?
Add Apple Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
AAPL is currently tagged:QualityFails criteria (26/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Apple Inc. · AAPL
AAPL: 50% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 141%. Main risk to monitor: 52% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
50%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-3.2% → +20.8%
mid +8.8% / yr
Downside (p20)
-14.8%
stress -29.6%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 53/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
53
/ 100
Deep valueval.
27/ 100
P/B 40.54× · FCF yield 2.3%
Margin of safetyval.
8/ 100
52% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$252.28
-3.0% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 32%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$194.06
-8.0% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 32% operating margin holds, 17% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Apple Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Technology. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | AAPL | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 22.0× | — | 23.0× |
| P/B | 40.54× | 4.00× | — | 4.50× |
| Dividend yield | 0.37% | 1.00% | — | 1.40% |
| ROE | 141.5% |
Earnings reaction explainer
AAPL beat by 6.3%.
Reported EPS $2.01 vs $1.89 expected — a routine beat. Read the rest of the print (guidance, margins, segment mix) before assuming the multiple should expand. Trailing operating margin: 32.3%.
- Quality investorsPositive
A routine beat with stable margins is the textbook compounder pattern — nothing changes in the thesis.
- Value investorsNeutral
Whether the beat matters depends on entry multiple. P/E — sets the bar.
- Growth investorsNeutral
Positive but unremarkable — guidance and KPI commentary will move the stock more than the beat itself.
What to watch on the next print
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Jul 30 · consensus EPS $1.89 · last actual $2.01
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.57
P/B Ratio
40.54
EPS Growth
21.8%
Revenue Growth
16.6%
Debt / Equity
0.80
Net Cash / Share
$-1.10
Return on Equity
141.5%
Gross Margin
47.9%
Operating Margin
32.3%
FCF / Share
$6.88
Current Ratio
1.07