AXP
American Express CompanyFinancial ServicesCredit ServicesQuality
$314.05 · 15min delay
β 1.08A high-quality mega-cap compounder trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $281.4652-wk high $387.49
Mkt Cap
$214.28B
P/E
—
PEG
1.55
P/B
6.30
Dividend
1.22%
ROE
34.4%
About the business
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and internationally. It operates through four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. The company offers credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, and lifestyle and expense management products and services; and banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending. It also provides merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, as well as network services. The company offers its products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations through mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers and business partners, in-house sales teams, direct mail, telephone, and direct response advertising. American Express Company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Who would buy AXP?
Consensus 21/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
2 5 8
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 34.4% clears "> 20.0%".
- AQR / Asness· Quality Factor83/100
ROE > 20% 34.4% clears "> 20.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Fama / French
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 70/100
7 insiders sold $36.9M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 336,228 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOABAR RAYMOND D | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 13, 2026 | 40 | $306.43 | $12K | Indirect |
| LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 6, 2026 | 3,032 | $300.02 | $910K | Direct |
| JOABAR RAYMOND D | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 19, 2026 | 14,000 | $340.67 | $4.77M | Direct |
| GROSFIELD HOWARD M | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 12, 2026 | 8,134 | $346.73 | $2.82M | Direct |
| RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 9, 2026 | 15,000 | $356.58 | $5.35M | Direct |
| SEEGER LAUREEN E | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 9, 2026 | 12,737 | $360.99 | $4.60M | Direct |
| PICKETT DENISE | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 5, 2026 | 23,385 | $356.91 | $8.35M | Direct |
| PICKETT DENISE | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 5, 2026 | 12,660 | $173.61 | $2.20M | Direct |
| MARRS ANNA | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 5, 2026 | 27,425 | $350.01 | $9.60M | Direct |
| MARRS ANNA | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 5, 2026 | 14,992 | $173.61 | $2.60M | Direct |
| PICKETT DENISE | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 21,012 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RUTLEDGE ELIZABETH | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 9,057 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MARRS ANNA | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 26,899 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JOABAR RAYMOND D | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 24,330 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SKYLER JENNIFER | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 9,952 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 5,875 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 20,182 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GROSFIELD HOWARD M | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 17,280 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MARQUEZ RAFAEL | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 17,280 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LE CAILLEC CHRISTOPHE | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 17,280 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| TABISH DOUGLAS J | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 9,504 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 39,882 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HERENA MONIQUE | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 18,800 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SQUERI STEPHEN J | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 123,033 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SEEGER LAUREEN E | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 27,140 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCNEAL GLENDA G | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 11,750 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JOABAR RAYMOND D | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 12, 2025 | 650 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| JOABAR RAYMOND D | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 12, 2025 | 1,400 | $384.93 | $539K | Direct |
| BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 4, 2025 | 13,800 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 22.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +336,228 sh
Price history
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What would AXP do to your portfolio?
Add American Express Company at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
AXP is currently tagged:QualityFails criteria (21/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
American Express Company · AXP
AXP: 56% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: 24% below fair value.
Outperform prob.
56%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
+1.1% → +25.1%
mid +13.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-13.0%
stress -26.0%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 65/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation.
Composite
65
/ 100
Deep valueval.
34/ 100
P/B 6.30×
Margin of safetyval.
84/ 100
24% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$535.07
+11.2% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 21%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$411.59
+5.6% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 21% operating margin holds, 12% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
American Express Company vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | AXP | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 11.2× | 8.5× | 11.5× |
| P/B | 6.30× | 1.70× | 1.20× | 1.30× |
| Dividend yield | 1.22% | 4.60% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| ROE | 34.4% |
Earnings reaction explainer
AXP missed by -2.3%.
Reported EPS $4.28 vs $4.38 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 21.2%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
News & events
Next earnings
Fri, Jul 24 · consensus EPS $4.38 · last actual $4.28
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.55
P/B Ratio
6.30
EPS Growth
17.6%
Revenue Growth
11.6%
Debt / Equity
1.78
Net Cash / Share
$-9.66
Return on Equity
34.4%
Gross Margin
62.8%
Operating Margin
21.2%
FCF / Share
N/A
Current Ratio
1.57