BABA
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedConsumer CyclicalInternet RetailGrowth at a Reasonable Price
$135.10 · 15min delay
β 0.49A steady mega-cap growth-at-a-reasonable-price pick trading near fair value.
52-wk low $103.7152-wk high $192.67
Mkt Cap
$324.11B
P/E
—
PEG
0.86
P/B
2.06
Dividend
0.76%
ROE
8.2%
About the business
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates digital retail platforms under the Taobao and Tmall names; wholesale marketplaces through 1688.com and Alibaba.com; global e-commerce platform under the AliExpress name; e-commerce platforms under the Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz names; and consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace under the Tmall Global, Tmall Supermarket, and Xianyu names. The company also operates Cainiao, an e-commerce logistics solution; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; and Amap, a provider of mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information; Youku, an online video platform; and Damai Entertainment that provides content production, promotion and distribution, performance and event ticketing management, IP-related licensing and operations, cinema ticketing management, and internet data services for the entertainment industry. In addition, it provides elastic computing, storage, network, security, database, big data, cloud native, and Alibaba cloud model studio services; and hardware, software license and installation, and application development and maintenance services, as well as sells membership packages and subscriptions. Further, the company offers Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and goods; Alibaba Health for medical and healthcare solutions; mobile games under the Lingxi Games name; UC Browser, an information service platform; Quark, an information services platform for young users; Fliggy, an online travel platform; and DingTalk, a collaboration workplace and enterprise management platform. It also offers the Alibaba Token Hub (ATH) Business, which develops multimodal foundation models; the MaaS Business Line, which builds AI technical infrastructure; and the Qwen Business Unit, which is responsible for a personal AI assistant. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
Who would buy BABA?
Consensus 9/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
0 6 9
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP63/100
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) 0.86× clears "< 1.00×".
- Benjamin Graham· Graham Net-Net63/100
Net Cash Positive (NCAV proxy) $21.50 clears "> $0.00".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksInsider activity · Sparse
No recent insider transactions
Strength 10/100
No Form 4 filings in the last 6 months. Insider inactivity is itself weak evidence — it usually reflects blackout windows or compensation cycles rather than a view on the stock.
- Sparse data — read with caution
No transactions match the selected filters.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.0% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
—
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What would BABA do to your portfolio?
Add Alibaba Group Holding Limited at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
BABA is currently tagged:Growth at a Reasonable PriceFails criteria (9/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Alibaba Group Holding Limited · BABA
BABA: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: D/E 0.26. Main risk to monitor: 100% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
48%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-12.4% → +23.6%
mid +5.6% / yr
Downside (p20)
-5.9%
stress -11.9%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 40/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation.
Composite
40
/ 100
Deep valueval.
43/ 100
P/B 2.06× · FCF yield -8.1%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
100% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$87.96
-8.2% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 7%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$67.66
-12.9% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 7% operating margin and 2% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Alibaba Group Holding Limited vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | BABA | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 2.06× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | 0.76% | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | 8.2% |
Earnings reaction explainer
BABA blew past estimates by 23.6%.
Reported EPS $7.09 vs $5.74 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 7.1%.
- Growth investorsPositive
Confirms operating leverage — -71% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
- Quality investorsPositive
If ROE (8%) and operating margin (7%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
- Value investorsNegative
Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, May 13 · consensus EPS $5.74 · last actual $7.09
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.86
P/B Ratio
2.06
EPS Growth
-70.9%
Revenue Growth
1.7%
Debt / Equity
0.26
Net Cash / Share
$21.50
Return on Equity
8.2%
Gross Margin
40.8%
Operating Margin
7.1%
FCF / Share
$-10.89
Current Ratio
1.33