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C logo

C

Citigroup Inc.
Financial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedRisk-First
$124.70 · 15min delay
β 1.12

A steady mega-cap risk-flagged situation trading at a discounted valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

Download report

52-wk low $71.6552-wk high $135.29

Mkt Cap

$212.69B

P/E

—

PEG

0.70

P/B

1.11

Dividend

1.91%

ROE

7.6%

About the business

Citigroup Inc., a diversified financial service holding company, provides various financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions. It operates through five segments: Services, Markets, Banking, U.S. Personal Banking, and Wealth. The Services segment includes treasury and trade solutions, which provides cash management, trade, and working capital solutions to multinational corporations, financial institutions, and public sector organizations; and securities services, such as cross-border support for clients, local market expertise, post-trade technologies, data solutions, and various securities services solutions. The Markets segment offers sales and trading services for equities, foreign exchange, rates, spread products, and commodities to corporate, institutional, and public sector clients; and market-making services, including asset classes, risk management solutions, financing, and prime brokerage. The Banking segment includes investment banking services comprising equity and debt capital markets-related strategic financing solutions; advisory services related to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, restructurings, and corporate defense activities; and corporate lending consists of corporate and commercial banking. The U.S. Personal Banking segment provides proprietary and co-branded card portfolios; and traditional banking services to retail and small business customers. The Wealth segment offers financial services to high-net-worth clients through banking, lending, mortgages, investment, custody, and trust product offerings; professional industries, including law firms, consulting groups, accounting, and asset management; and affluent and high net worth clients. The company operates in North America, the United Kingdom, Japan, North and South Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Citigroup Inc. was founded in 1812 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Who would buy C?

Consensus 37/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.

4 6 5

Endorses

· 3 frameworks
  • Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive100/100

    P/B < 1.5 1.11× clears "< 1.50×".

  • Seth Klarman· Klarman Margin of Safety100/100

    Net Cash > 0 $135.44 clears "> $0.00".

  • Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First100/100

    Net Cash Positive $135.44 clears "> $0.00".

Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 70/100

7 insiders sold $22.8M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 509,511 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Weak match).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
SKYLER EDWARDOfficerOpen-market sellApr 15, 202625,000$131.41$3.29MDirect
GILES NICOLE M.OfficerOpen-market sellApr 15, 202612,732$131.80$1.68MDirect
REINER GARY MDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026405$110.99$45KDirect
DAILEY GRACE E.DirectorAward / grantApr 1, 20266$126.33$758Direct
COLE TITILOPEDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 202617$113.00$2KDirect
VON KOSKULL CASPER WILHELMDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 202635$112.03$4K—
MOULDS JONATHAN PAULDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026260$111.06$29K—
JAMES RENEE JODirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026174$111.55$19K—
TURLEY JAMES SDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026218$111.01$24K—
TAYLOR DIANA LDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026330$111.23$37K—
DUGAN JOHN CUNNINGHAMDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026563$111.01$63KIndirect
HENNES DUNCAN PDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026218$111.01$24K—
MASON MARK A.L.Chief Financial OfficerOpen-market sellFeb 20, 20263,627$114.71$416KDirect
CANTU ERNESTO TORRESOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 13, 202667,318$111.11$7.48M—
MCINTOSH BRENTOfficerStock Gift at price 0.00 per share.Feb 12, 20264,798$0.00$0Direct
LUCHETTI GONZALOOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 12, 202619,974$115.03$2.30MDirect
HABNER PAMELAOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 12, 202629,754$117.26$3.49MDirect
SIEG ANDREW MOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202632,699$0.00$0Direct
LIVINGSTONE DAVIDOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202617,594$0.00$0Direct
CANTU ERNESTO TORRESOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202631,126$0.00$0Direct
SKYLER EDWARDOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202618,710$0.00$0Direct
TUREK ZDENEKOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202636,392$0.00$0Direct
SELVAKESARI ANANDChief Operating OfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202629,202$0.00$0Direct
GARG SUNILOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202623,097$0.00$0Direct
GARG SUNILOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 11, 202618,000$118.49$2.13MDirect
MCINTOSH BRENTOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202638,584$0.00$0Direct
LUCHETTI GONZALOOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202627,951$0.00$0Direct
KHALIQ SYED SHAHMIROfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202632,570$0.00$0Direct
MORTON ANDREW JOHNOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202658,706$0.00$0Direct
RAGHAVAN VISWASOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202659,710$0.00$0Direct
RYAN TIMOTHYOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202628,627$0.00$0Direct
HABNER PAMELAOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202619,816$0.00$0Direct
MASON MARK A.L.Chief Financial OfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202652,367$0.00$0Direct
FRASER JANE NINDChief Executive OfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 2026117,775$0.00$0Direct
GILES NICOLE M.OfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202629,911$0.00$0Direct
GILES NICOLE M.OfficerOpen-market sellFeb 11, 202616,792$119.04$2.00MDirect
WECHTER SARAOfficerAward / grantFeb 11, 202623,647$0.00$0Direct
REINER GARY MDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 20261,640$27.38$45KDirect
DAILEY GRACE E.DirectorAward / grantJan 2, 20261,273$1.02$1KDirect
COLE TITILOPEDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 20261,272$0.91$1KDirect

Showing 40 of 49 matching transactions.

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.3% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +509,511 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.

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Full framework decision report

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

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What would C do to your portfolio?

Add Citigroup Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

C is currently tagged:Risk-FirstWeak match (37/100)

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Citigroup Inc. · C

C: 59% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 5 signal families positive (high confidence). Strongest support: 33% below fair value.

Outperform prob.
59%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
high confidence
Expected return
+0.1% → +24.1%
mid +12.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-13.5%
stress -27.0%
Data quality
88/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 73/100. Strongest contribution from valuation; weakest from quality.

Composite
73
/ 100
Attractive
Deep valueval.
97/ 100

P/B 1.11×

Margin of safetyval.
93/ 100

33% below fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~20%
$241.12
+14.1% / yr (5y)

A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 34%
  • • Stranded asset value crystallises
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%
$185.48
+8.3% / yr (5y)

No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 34% operating margin and 16% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.

Global value comparison

Citigroup Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricCGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—11.2×8.5×11.5×
P/B1.11×1.70×1.20×1.30×
Dividend yield1.91%4.60%4.20%4.00%
ROE7.6%
Earnings reaction explainer

C blew past estimates by 18.5%.

Big beat· +18.5%

Reported EPS $3.06 vs $2.58 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 34.1%.

  • Growth investorsPositive

    Confirms operating leverage — 56% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.

  • Quality investorsPositive

    If ROE (8%) and operating margin (34%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.

  • Value investorsNegative

    Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.

News & events

Next earnings

Tue, Jul 14 · consensus EPS $2.58 · last actual $3.06

  • Daiwa Adjusts Price Target on Citigroup to $146 From $134, Maintains Buy Rating

    MT Newswires · just now

  • Citigroup Keeps Neutral Rating on Ford Motor (F) After Target Cut

    Insider Monkey · just now

  • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Price Target Increased by Citi to $141

    Insider Monkey · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

0.70

P/B Ratio

1.11

EPS Growth

56.1%

Revenue Growth

15.9%

Debt / Equity

N/A

Net Cash / Share

$135.44

Return on Equity

7.6%

Gross Margin

0.0%

Operating Margin

34.1%

FCF / Share

N/A

Current Ratio

N/A

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Walter Schloss· Schloss Deep Value0/100

    P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 1.11× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula25/100

    ROE > 20% is 7.6% — fails "> 20.0%".

  • Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality33/100

    ROE > 15% is 7.6% — fails "> 15.0%".

See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
73/100
Medium-High agreement
Signal families · 3 of 5 signal families positive
Agreement: Medium-High
  • Valuationpositive

    Trades materially below the fair-value range — historically a tailwind for forward returns.

    33% below fair value
    75
    /100
  • Qualitypositive

    Quality is mixed — some strengths, some softness.

    Op margin 34%EPS growth 56%
    64
    /100
  • Balance sheetno data

    Balance-sheet detail too thin to evaluate.

    Net cash position
  • Momentumneutral

    Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.

    83% through 52w range
    55
    /100
  • Behaviouralneutral

    Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

    Net insider selling ($22.8M)1 tracked holders · peak 6.1%
    42
    /100
  • Catalysts & eventspositive

    Recent print + capital-return signal lean positive.

    Big EPS beat (+19%)
    62
    /100
Positive drivers
  • • 33% below fair value
  • • Op margin 34%
  • • EPS growth 56%
  • • Big EPS beat (+19%)
Key risks

No structural risks flagged.

Suggested diligence questions
  • 1. Is the valuation discount durable, or is the market pricing in deteriorating fundamentals?
Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

Among 104 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 58% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of +4.0% / yr.

Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
View full thesis
Quality20%
44/ 100

ROE 8% · Op margin 34%

Balance sheet15%
—/ 100

No balance-sheet data

Insider convictionown.
59/ 100

Net selling — 7 insiders

Superinvestorown.
72/ 100

1 tracked holder · peak 6.1%

Shareholder yield10%
42/ 100

1.91% yield

Momentum5%
87/ 100

83% through 52w range

Growth5%
100/ 100

EPS 56% · Rev 16%

Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

Customise weights
Drivers
  • • Revenue growth holds near 16%
  • • Operating margin stays around 34%
  • • No major balance-sheet surprises
Bear
~35%
$139.11
+2.2% / yr (5y)

Cyclical earnings prove to be at peak; revenue stalls and the multiple, already low, drifts lower as estimates re-rate down.

Drivers
  • • Operating margin compresses 200–400 bps
  • • Multiple compresses as estimates roll back
  • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
Indicative weights
15.0%
17.0%
12.0%

Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

What to watch on the next print
  • • Whether margin expansion sustains into next quarter
  • • Forward guidance update — beats without raises tend to fade
  • Cummins Inc. (CMI) Price Target Raised to $770 on Higher Estimates

    Insider Monkey · just now

  • PBOC Warns on Imported Inflation, Focuses on Policy Transmission

    Bloomberg · just now

  • Goldman, BofA Delay Fed Cut Calls After ‘Last Straw’ Jobs Data

    Bloomberg · just now

  • Institutional Own.

    82.7%

    Insider Own.

    0.3%

    Dividend Yield

    1.91%

    Book Value / Share

    $112.22

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 6.1%

    Grand Portfolio
    • Bill Nygren

      Harris Associates (Oakmark Funds) · Q4 2025

      6.1%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.