CAT
Caterpillar Inc.IndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachineryMomentum
$901.26 · 15min delay
β 1.63A high-quality mega-cap momentum story trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $336.2452-wk high $931.35
Mkt Cap
$415.11B
P/E
—
PEG
2.14
P/B
22.25
Dividend
0.65%
ROE
51.3%
About the business
Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. The Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators; backhoe, compact track, skid steer, track-type, and wheel loaders; and related parts and work tools. Its Resource Industries segment provides electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, mining trucks, wheel loaders, off-highway and articulated trucks, wide-body trucks, wheel tractor scrapers and dozers, and landfill and soil compactors; machinery components, and wear and maintenance components; and technology products and services for fleet management, equipment management analytics, autonomous machine capabilities, safety services, and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engine powered generator sets; reciprocating engines, drivetrain, and integrated systems and solutions; centrifugal gas compressors and related services; and diesel-electric locomotive components, and other rail-related products. Its Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, revolving charge accounts, installment sale contracts, repair/rebuild financing, working capital loans, and wholesale financing; and insurance and risk management products and services. The All Other segment offers parts distribution; logistics and distribution services; electronics and control systems; dealer portfolio management; brand management and marketing strategy; and digital investment services. It also provides mining software solutions. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. Caterpillar Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Who would buy CAT?
Consensus 20/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
2 4 9
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 51.3% clears "> 20.0%".
- William O'Neil· Momentum / CAN SLIM100/100
Within 15% of 52-wk high -3.2% clears "> -15.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksInsider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 35/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (MACLENNAN DAVID W, $219K). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 148,325 shares.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 20/100) and the archetype read (Momentum).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | Open-market sell | May 6, 2026 | 9,152 | $926.25 | $8.48M | Direct |
| FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | Option exercise | May 6, 2026 | 12,000 | $219.76 | $2.64M | Direct |
| KAISER JASON | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | May 6, 2026 | 294 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DE LANGE BOB | Officer | Open-market sell | May 6, 2026 | 24,222 | $922.92 | $22.35M | Direct |
| DE LANGE BOB | Officer | Option exercise | May 6, 2026 | 28,105 | $127.60 | $3.59M | Direct |
| BONFIELD ANDREW ROBERT JOHN | Officer | Open-market sell | May 6, 2026 | 15,674 | $918.71 | $14.40M | Direct |
| BONFIELD ANDREW ROBERT JOHN | Officer | Option exercise | May 6, 2026 | 23,054 | $294.78 | $6.80M | Direct |
| SHURMAN RODNEY MICHAEL | Officer | Open-market sell | May 5, 2026 | 5,639 | $903.18 | $5.09M | Direct |
| SHURMAN RODNEY MICHAEL | Officer | Option exercise | May 5, 2026 | 5,639 | $253.98 | $1.43M | Direct |
| KAISER JASON | Officer | Open-market sell | May 4, 2026 | 5,642 | $883.03 | $4.98M | Direct |
| KAISER JASON | Officer | Option exercise | May 4, 2026 | 7,917 | $253.98 | $2.01M | Direct |
| MACLENNAN DAVID W | Director | Open-market buy | May 4, 2026 | 250 | $876.84 | $219K | Direct |
| CREED JOSEPH E | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 5, 2026 | 2,500 | $718.93 | $1.80M | Direct |
| KAISER JASON | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,650 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| OWENS DEREK | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,386 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SHURMAN RODNEY MICHAEL | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,320 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PAMBIANCHI CHRISTINE MICHAEL | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,155 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JOHNSON DENISE C. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,650 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DE LANGE BOB | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,650 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CREED JOSEPH E | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 4,950 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SCHAUPP WILLIAM E | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 102 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BONFIELD ANDREW ROBERT JOHN | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,749 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SHURMAN RODNEY MICHAEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 2,278 | $759.61 | $1.73M | Direct |
| SHURMAN RODNEY MICHAEL | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 23, 2026 | 2,278 | $253.98 | $579K | Direct |
| SHURMAN RODNEY MICHAEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 1,764 | $763.39 | $1.35M | Direct |
| SCHAUPP WILLIAM E | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 972 | $764.20 | $743K | Direct |
| FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 13, 2026 | 7,891 | $776.90 | $6.13M | Direct |
| FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 13, 2026 | 11,000 | $219.76 | $2.42M | Direct |
| KAISER JASON | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 12, 2026 | 1,690 | $776.70 | $1.31M | Direct |
| DE LANGE BOB | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 11, 2026 | 12,507 | $767.08 | $9.59M | Direct |
| DE LANGE BOB | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 11, 2026 | 15,000 | $127.60 | $1.91M | Direct |
| FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 9,055 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KAISER JASON | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 2,469 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| OWENS DEREK | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 514 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SHURMAN RODNEY MICHAEL | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 2,469 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| UMPLEBY DONALD JAMES III | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 34,986 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JOHNSON DENISE C. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 9,055 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DE LANGE BOB | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 9,055 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CREED JOSEPH E | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 9,055 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SCHAUPP WILLIAM E | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 638 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +148,325 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week highs despite weak framework scores — market enthusiasm is running ahead of the fundamentals most legends look at.
What would CAT do to your portfolio?
Add Caterpillar Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
CAT is currently tagged:MomentumFails criteria (20/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Caterpillar Inc. · CAT
CAT: 46% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 51%. Main risk to monitor: 137% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
46%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-5.0% → +19.0%
mid +7.0% / yr
Downside (p20)
-21.5%
stress -43.0%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 43/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
43
/ 100
Deep valueval.
23/ 100
P/B 22.25× · FCF yield 0.9%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
137% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$495.20
-11.3% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 18%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$380.93
-15.8% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 18% operating margin holds, 22% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Caterpillar Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CAT | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 22.25× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | 0.65% | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | 51.3% |
Earnings reaction explainer
CAT missed by -8.0%.
Reported EPS $5.54 vs $6.02 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 18.2%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
News & events
Next earnings
Tue, Aug 4 · consensus EPS $6.02 · last actual $5.54
Caterpillar Inc. Releases 2025 Annual and Sustainability Reports
PR Newswire · just now
Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization Trading Halt - CAT
CNW Group · just now
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCAT) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Simply Wall St. · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.14
P/B Ratio
22.25
EPS Growth
30.2%
Revenue Growth
22.2%
Debt / Equity
2.31
Net Cash / Share
$-86.30
Return on Equity
51.3%
Gross Margin
28.6%
Operating Margin
18.2%
FCF / Share
$8.20
Current Ratio
1.35