CME
CME Group Inc.Financial ServicesFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesRisk-First
$286.75 · 15min delay
β 0.26A high-quality large-cap risk-flagged situation trading at a premium valuation.
52-wk low $257.1752-wk high $329.16
Mkt Cap
$103.91B
P/E
—
PEG
4.76
P/B
3.90
Dividend
1.84%
ROE
15.9%
About the business
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Who would buy CME?
Consensus 23/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 8 6
Endorses
· 1 framework- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality89/100
ROE > 15% 15.9% clears "> 15.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Fama / French· Pure Value Factor0/100
P/B < 1.5 is 3.90× — fails "< 1.50×".
- Seth Klarman
Insider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 35/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (SHEPARD WILLIAM R, $437K). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 75,596 shares.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 23/100) and the archetype read (Risk-First).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEPARD WILLIAM R | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 26, 2026 | 1,469 | $297.55 | $437K | — |
| MARCUS JONATHAN L | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Mar 17, 2026 | 3,291 | $333.37 | $1.10M | Direct |
| MARCUS JONATHAN L | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 17, 2026 | 3,291 | $313.37 | $1.03M | Direct |
| FITZPATRICK LYNNE | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 5,504 | $311.40 | $1.71M | Direct |
| MCCOURT TIMOTHY FRANCIS | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 5,504 | $311.40 | $1.71M | Direct |
| MARCUS JONATHAN L | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 5,270 | $311.40 | $1.64M | Direct |
| TOBIN JACK J | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 608 | $311.40 | $189K | Direct |
| SPRAGUE SUZANNE | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 5,504 | $311.40 | $1.71M | Direct |
| WINKLER JULIE | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 8,256 | $311.40 | $2.57M | Direct |
| CUTINHO SUNIL KIRAN | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 8,256 | $311.40 | $2.57M | Direct |
| SAMMANN DEREK LOUIS | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 8,256 | $311.40 | $2.57M | Direct |
| PIELL HILDA HARRIS | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 7,076 | $311.40 | $2.20M | Direct |
| VROMAN KENDAL L | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 7,076 | $311.40 | $2.20M | Direct |
| DUFFY TERRENCE A | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 62,902 | $311.40 | $19.59M | Direct |
| VROMAN KENDAL L | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 12, 2026 | 5,160 | $309.00 | $1.59M | Direct |
| TOBIN JACK J | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Mar 11, 2026 | 105 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| COOK ELIZABETH A | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 6, 2026 | 1,000 | $320.00 | $320K | Indirect |
| DURKIN BRYAN T | Director | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 4,200 | $309.65 | $1.30M | Direct |
| GEPSMAN MARTIN J | Director | Open-market sell | Feb 20, 2026 | 300 | $305.90 | $92K | Direct |
| SUSKIND DENNIS A | Director | Open-market sell | Feb 6, 2026 | 748 | $300.00 | $224K | Direct |
| DUFFY TERRENCE A | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 11, 2025 | 25,000 | $269.55 | $6.74M | Direct |
| SAMMANN DEREK LOUIS | Officer | Open-market sell | Nov 20, 2025 | 7,200 | $275.67 | $1.98M | Indirect |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.5% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +75,596 sh
Price history
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What would CME do to your portfolio?
Add CME Group Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
CME is currently tagged:Risk-FirstFails criteria (23/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
CME Group Inc. · CME
CME: 56% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 16%. Main risk to monitor: 33% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
56%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-3.2% → +20.8%
mid +8.8% / yr
Downside (p20)
-3.1%
stress -6.2%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 65/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation.
Composite
65
/ 100
Deep valueval.
60/ 100
P/B 3.90× · FCF yield 2.9%
Margin of safetyval.
27/ 100
33% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$280.68
-0.4% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 70%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$215.91
-5.5% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 70% operating margin holds, 14% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
CME Group Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CME | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 11.2× | 8.5× | 11.5× |
| P/B | 3.90× | 1.70× | 1.20× | 1.30× |
| Dividend yield | 1.84% | 4.60% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| ROE | 15.9% |
Earnings reaction explainer
CME blew past estimates by 12.8%.
Reported EPS $3.36 vs $2.98 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 69.8%.
- Growth investorsPositive
Confirms operating leverage — 21% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
- Quality investorsPositive
If ROE (16%) and operating margin (70%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
- Value investorsNeutral
A blow-out can pull future quarters forward — value investors will look for sustained margin, not a single-quarter spike.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 22 · consensus EPS $2.98 · last actual $3.36
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
4.76
P/B Ratio
3.90
EPS Growth
21.3%
Revenue Growth
14.4%
Debt / Equity
0.14
Net Cash / Share
$-3.39
Return on Equity
15.9%
Gross Margin
100.0%
Operating Margin
69.8%
FCF / Share
$8.36
Current Ratio
1.02