CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsIncome
$32.95 · 15min delay
β 1.03A high-quality large-cap income stock trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $29.7552-wk high $58.42
Mkt Cap
$42.27B
P/E
—
PEG
1.75
P/B
17.61
Dividend
—
ROE
49.2%
About the business
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised. The company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Who would buy CMG?
Consensus 11/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 4 10
Endorses
· 1 framework- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income80/100
Payout Ratio < 70% 0.0% clears "< 70.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP0/100
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 1.75× — fails "< 1.00×".
- Walter Schloss
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 45/100
2 insiders sold $7.2M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 730,236 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FILI-KRUSHEL PATRICIA D | Director | Open-market sell | Feb 24, 2026 | 3,350 | $36.58 | $123K | Direct |
| GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III | President | Award / grant | Feb 13, 2026 | 254,846 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BOATWRIGHT HENRY SCOTT | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 13, 2026 | 229,457 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SCHALOW LAURIE | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 13, 2026 | 76,577 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RYMER ADAM T | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 13, 2026 | 25,526 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BUSH MATTHEW R | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 13, 2026 | 6,416 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III | President | Open-market sell | Feb 6, 2026 | 61,077 | $40.01 | $2.44M | Direct |
| GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III | President | Option exercise | Feb 6, 2026 | 86,100 | $11.66 | $1.00M | Direct |
| SCHALOW LAURIE | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 8,886 | $39.39 | $350K | Direct |
| ESKENAZI ILENE | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 20,310 | $39.39 | $800K | Direct |
| KIDD JASON ALLAN | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 16,502 | $39.39 | $650K | Direct |
| BUSH MATTHEW R | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 3,174 | $39.39 | $125K | Direct |
| GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III | President | Open-market sell | Dec 12, 2025 | 67,646 | $36.05 | $2.44M | Direct |
| GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III | President | Option exercise | Dec 12, 2025 | 100,000 | $11.66 | $1.17M | Direct |
| GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III | President | Open-market sell | Dec 1, 2025 | 61,892 | $34.67 | $2.15M | Direct |
| GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III | President | Option exercise | Dec 1, 2025 | 93,000 | $11.66 | $1.08M | Direct |
| WEINSTEIN JOSHUA IAN | Director | Award / grant | Dec 1, 2025 | 3,407 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.7% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +730,236 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A notable drawdown — worth re-reading the framework verdicts below with the cheaper price in mind.
What would CMG do to your portfolio?
Add Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
CMG is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (11/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG
CMG: 36% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Main risk to monitor: 61% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
36%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-6.9% → +17.1%
mid +5.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-21.4%
stress -42.7%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 32/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 8 points off the composite.
Composite
32
/ 100
Deep valueval.
28/ 100
P/B 17.61× · FCF yield 2.6%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
61% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$26.62
-4.2% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 13%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$20.48
-9.1% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 13% operating margin holds, 7% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CMG | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 17.61× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | 49.2% |
Earnings reaction explainer
CMG missed materially — -24.6% below consensus.
Reported EPS $0.24 vs $0.32 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 13.3%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 29 · consensus EPS $0.32 · last actual $0.24
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.75
P/B Ratio
17.61
EPS Growth
-17.9%
Revenue Growth
7.4%
Debt / Equity
2.18
Net Cash / Share
$-3.41
Return on Equity
49.2%
Gross Margin
39.6%
Operating Margin
13.3%
FCF / Share
$0.85
Current Ratio
0.92