CNC
Centene CorporationHealthcareHealthcare PlansValue
$58.31 · 15min delay
β 1.06A challenged large-cap business trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $25.0852-wk high $62.21
Mkt Cap
$28.79B
P/E
—
PEG
1.07
P/B
1.34
Dividend
—
ROE
-26.0%
About the business
Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services. The Medicare segment offers special needs and medicare supplement, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides health insurance marketplace product for individual and commercial group. The Other segment operates clinical healthcare and pharmacies, as well as offers vision and dental, behavioral health, and centralized services. It provides services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, behavioral health practitioners, and ancillary providers. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Who would buy CNC?
Consensus 17/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 5 9
Endorses
· 1 framework- Fama / French· Pure Value Factor100/100
P/B < 1.5 1.34× clears "< 1.50×".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100
ROE > 20% is -26.0% — fails "> 20.0%".
- Walter Schloss
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 40/100
1 insiders sold $2.6M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 2,011,185 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a cheap or stressed name is a more meaningful negative than on a compounder — the people closest to the business are not voting with their wallets. Weigh this against the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COUGHLIN CHRISTOPHER J | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,140 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| EPPINGER FREDERICK H | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,690 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SAMUELS THEODORE R II | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 943 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| TANJI KENNETH Y. | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,179 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KOSTER CHRISTOPHER A. | General Counsel | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 126,925 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KOSTER CHRISTOPHER A. | General Counsel | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 126,925 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LONDON SARAH M. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 520,720 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LONDON SARAH M. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 520,720 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CASSO KATIE | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 26,036 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CASSO KATIE | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 26,036 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH SUSAN RAYE | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 112,823 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH SUSAN RAYE | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 112,823 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCNALLY TANYA M | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 74,311 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ASHER ANDREW LYNN | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 173,573 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ASHER ANDREW LYNN | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 173,573 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCNALLY TANYA M | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 26, 2026 | 74,311 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| COUGHLIN CHRISTOPHER J | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 729 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| EPPINGER FREDERICK H | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 608 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BURDICK KENNETH A | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 729 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SAMUELS THEODORE R II | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 608 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| TANJI KENNETH Y. | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 790 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BURDICK KENNETH A | Director | Open-market sell | Dec 4, 2025 | 66,007 | $39.02 | $2.58M | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +2,011,185 sh
Price history
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What would CNC do to your portfolio?
Add Centene Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
CNC is currently tagged:ValueFails criteria (17/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Centene Corporation · CNC
CNC: 56% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: 59% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: ROE -26% (weak).
Outperform prob.
56%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-5.6% → +30.4%
mid +12.4% / yr
Downside (p20)
-14.7%
stress -29.5%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 70/100. Strongest contribution from valuation; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
70
/ 100
Deep valueval.
97/ 100
P/B 1.34× · FCF yield 23.8%
Margin of safetyval.
100/ 100
59% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$186.75
+26.2% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 5%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$143.66
+19.8% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 5% operating margin and 5% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Centene Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CNC | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 24.0× | — | 20.0× |
| P/B | 1.34× | 4.80× | — | 3.80× |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.40% | — | 1.80% |
| ROE | -26.0% |
Earnings reaction explainer
CNC blew past estimates by 219.5%.
Reported EPS $3.37 vs $1.05 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 5.1%.
- Growth investorsPositive
Confirms operating leverage — 18% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
- Quality investorsPositive
If ROE (-26%) and operating margin (5%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
- Value investorsNegative
Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.
News & events
Next earnings
Tue, Jul 28 · consensus EPS $1.05 · last actual $3.37
Canada Nickel's Crawford Project Clears Penultimate Federal Permitting Requirement
MT Newswires · just now
Superior HealthPlan Awards $100,000 in Grants to 10 Community-based Organizations in Texas
PR Newswire · just now
Canada Nickel's Crawford Project Clears Penultimate Federal Permitting Hurdle
CNW Group · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.07
P/B Ratio
1.34
EPS Growth
18.3%
Revenue Growth
5.1%
Debt / Equity
0.76
Net Cash / Share
$14.93
Return on Equity
-26.0%
Gross Margin
10.6%
Operating Margin
5.1%
FCF / Share
$13.87
Current Ratio
1.12