CNI
Canadian National Railway CompanyIndustrialsRailroadsIncome
$111.70 · 15min delay
β 0.99A high-quality large-cap income stock trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $90.7452-wk high $115.80
Mkt Cap
$67.76B
P/E
—
PEG
2.52
P/B
4.33
Dividend
2.43%
ROE
21.8%
About the business
Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States. The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services. It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications. Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Who would buy CNI?
Consensus 18/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 5 9
Endorses
· 1 framework- AQR / Asness· Quality Factor86/100
ROE > 20% 21.8% clears "> 20.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP0/100
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 2.52× — fails "< 1.00×".
- Walter Schloss
Insider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 45/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (Canadian National Railway Co, $162.1M). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 18/100) and the archetype read (Income).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | May 1, 2026 | 52,927 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 30, 2026 | 56,312 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 30, 2026 | 52,927 | $111.32 | $5.89M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 29, 2026 | 53,027 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 29, 2026 | 56,312 | $108.36 | $6.10M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 28, 2026 | 53,152 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 28, 2026 | 53,027 | $115.08 | $6.10M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 27, 2026 | 53,265 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 27, 2026 | 53,152 | $115.32 | $6.13M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 24, 2026 | 54,017 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 24, 2026 | 53,265 | $114.69 | $6.11M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 23, 2026 | 55,453 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 23, 2026 | 54,017 | $112.86 | $6.10M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 22, 2026 | 55,173 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 22, 2026 | 55,453 | $110.14 | $6.11M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 21, 2026 | 55,163 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 21, 2026 | 55,173 | $110.78 | $6.11M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 20, 2026 | 55,203 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 20, 2026 | 55,163 | $110.96 | $6.12M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 17, 2026 | 55,644 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 17, 2026 | 55,203 | $110.46 | $6.10M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 16, 2026 | 55,050 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 16, 2026 | 55,644 | $109.51 | $6.09M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 15, 2026 | 54,367 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 15, 2026 | 55,050 | $110.39 | $6.08M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 14, 2026 | 54,826 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 14, 2026 | 54,367 | $111.57 | $6.07M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 13, 2026 | 54,698 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 13, 2026 | 54,826 | $110.43 | $6.05M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 10, 2026 | 54,977 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 10, 2026 | 54,698 | $110.31 | $6.03M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 9, 2026 | 55,850 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 9, 2026 | 54,977 | $109.95 | $6.04M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 8, 2026 | 56,775 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 8, 2026 | 55,850 | $107.98 | $6.03M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 7, 2026 | 57,275 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 7, 2026 | 56,775 | $105.91 | $6.01M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 6, 2026 | 57,792 | — | — | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 6, 2026 | 57,275 | $104.81 | $6.00M | Direct |
| Canadian National Railway Co | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 2, 2026 | 58,157 | — | — | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 2.7% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
—
Loading…
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week highs despite weak framework scores — market enthusiasm is running ahead of the fundamentals most legends look at.
What would CNI do to your portfolio?
Add Canadian National Railway Company at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
CNI is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (18/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Canadian National Railway Company · CNI
CNI: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 22%. Main risk to monitor: 51% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
48%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-5.1% → +18.9%
mid +6.9% / yr
Downside (p20)
-15.9%
stress -31.8%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 55/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.
Composite
55
/ 100
Deep valueval.
61/ 100
P/B 4.33× · FCF yield 3.8%
Margin of safetyval.
9/ 100
51% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$95.95
-3.0% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 38%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$73.81
-8.0% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 38% operating margin holds, -1% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Canadian National Railway Company vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CNI | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 4.33× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | 2.43% | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | 21.8% |
Earnings reaction explainer
CNI missed by -5.8%.
Reported EPS $1.80 vs $1.91 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 38.4%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
News & events
Next earnings
Fri, Jul 24 · consensus EPS $1.91 · last actual $1.80
Canadian National Railway to Add Five New Sites, Re-Certify Six U..S Locations
MT Newswires · just now
CN Expands Certified Rail-Ready Site Program with New Industrial Development Opportunities
GlobeNewswire · just now
CN Submits Comments to STB on Completeness of UP-NS Amended Merger Application
GlobeNewswire · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.52
P/B Ratio
4.33
EPS Growth
1.1%
Revenue Growth
-0.5%
Debt / Equity
1.06
Net Cash / Share
$-36.40
Return on Equity
21.8%
Gross Margin
56.7%
Operating Margin
38.4%
FCF / Share
$4.28
Current Ratio
0.67