CNQ
Canadian Natural Resources LimitedEnergyOil & Gas E&PIncome
$46.33 · 15min delay
β 0.91A high-quality large-cap income stock trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $29.3052-wk high $51.34
Mkt Cap
$96.63B
P/E
—
PEG
3.42
P/B
2.96
Dividend
4.07%
ROE
22.8%
About the business
Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), mining bitumen, light and medium crude oil and NGLs, thermal bitumen, primary heavy crude oil and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. Its midstream assets include two crude oil pipeline systems; and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Canadian Natural Resources Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Who would buy CNQ?
Consensus 32/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
3 5 7
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100
ROE > 15% 22.8% clears "> 15.0%".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income100/100
Dividend Yield > 2% 4.1% clears "> 2.0%".
- AQR / Asness· Quality Factor86/100
ROE > 20% 22.8% clears "> 20.0%".
Insider activity · Positive
9 insiders bought shares in the open market
Strength 95/100
Over the last ~6 months 9 different insiders made open-market purchases totalling $394.0M, against $3.4M of selling (including planned 10b5-1 disposals). Multi-insider open-market buying is one of the more durable positive signals because it reflects fresh-dollar conviction rather than vesting or diversification.
In Prism's context
Insider buying adds modest supporting evidence alongside the framework read (Weak match).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 30, 2026 | 2,450,000 | $45.84 | $112.30M | Direct |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 30, 2026 | 2,450,000 | $46.40 | $113.67M | Direct |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Issuer | Transaction | Apr 30, 2026 | 4,850,000 | — | — | Direct |
| Best (Catherine May) | Director of Issuer | Compensation for services at price 47.65 per share. | Apr 6, 2026 | 754 | $47.65 | $36K | Indirect |
| Brown (Shelley Ann Marie) | Director of Issuer | Compensation for services at price 47.65 per share. | Apr 6, 2026 | 754 | $47.65 | $36K | Indirect |
| Giffin (Gordon D.) | Director of Issuer | Compensation for services at price 47.65 per share. | Apr 6, 2026 | 754 | $47.65 | $36K | Indirect |
| Gobert (Wilfred Arthur) | Director of Issuer | Compensation for services at price 47.65 per share. | Apr 6, 2026 | 754 | $47.65 | $36K | Indirect |
| Healy (Christine) | Director of Issuer | Compensation for services at price 47.65 per share. | Apr 6, 2026 | 754 | $47.65 | $36K | Indirect |
| Laut (Stephen W) | Director of Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 6, 2026 | 754 | $47.65 | $36K | Direct |
| Tuer (David) | Director of Issuer | Compensation for services at price 47.65 per share. | Apr 6, 2026 | 754 | $47.65 | $36K | Direct |
| Laing, Ronald Keith | Senior Officer of Issuer | Option exercise | Apr 1, 2026 | 17,072 | $33.00 | $563K | Direct |
| Stauth, Scott Gerald | Senior Officer of Issuer | Option exercise | Apr 1, 2026 | 51,148 | $33.00 | $1.69M | Direct |
| Stauth, Scott Gerald | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 102,714 | — | — | Direct |
| Stauth, Scott Gerald | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 102,714 | — | — | Indirect |
| Stauth, Scott Gerald | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 40,436 | — | — | Indirect |
| Stauth, Scott Gerald | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 40,436 | — | — | Indirect |
| Verschuren (Annette Marie) | Director of Issuer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 6,000 | — | — | Direct |
| Zabek (Robin Sean) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Option exercise | Apr 1, 2026 | 16,227 | $33.00 | $535K | Direct |
| Darel (Victor Clinton) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 1, 2026 | 113 | $31.91 | $4K | Direct |
| Darel (Victor Clinton) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Option exercise | Apr 1, 2026 | 8,644 | $33.00 | $285K | Direct |
| Edwards (Norman Murray) | Director of Issuer | Option exercise | Apr 1, 2026 | 295,159 | $33.00 | $9.74M | Direct |
| Froc (Jay Ellery) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Apr 1, 2026 | 199 | $31.91 | $6K | Direct |
| Froc (Jay Ellery) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Option exercise | Apr 1, 2026 | 15,213 | $33.00 | $502K | Direct |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 337,500 | $44.79 | $15.12M | Direct |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 337,500 | $45.71 | $15.43M | Direct |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 800,000 | $48.95 | $39.16M | Direct |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 800,000 | $49.33 | $39.46M | Direct |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Issuer | Transaction | Mar 31, 2026 | 2,150,000 | — | — | Direct |
| Zabek (Robin Sean) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 30, 2026 | 3,237 | $31.32 | $101K | Indirect |
| Zabek (Robin Sean) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 30, 2026 | 1,036 | $26.95 | $28K | Direct |
| Zabek (Robin Sean) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 30, 2026 | 870 | $31.16 | $27K | Direct |
| Zabek (Robin Sean) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 30, 2026 | 1,574 | $32.45 | $51K | Direct |
| Laing, Ronald Keith | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 26, 2026 | 4,338 | $47.83 | $207K | Indirect |
| Stauth, Scott Gerald | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 26, 2026 | 9,429 | $47.83 | $451K | Indirect |
| Zabek (Robin Sean) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 26, 2026 | 4,338 | $47.83 | $207K | Indirect |
| Balog (Brenda Gayle) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Mar 26, 2026 | 1,320 | $47.83 | $63K | Direct |
| Giffin (Gordon D.) | Director of Issuer | Transaction | Mar 24, 2026 | 176,210 | — | — | Indirect |
| Giffin (Gordon D.) | Director of Issuer | Transaction | Mar 24, 2026 | 176,210 | — | — | Direct |
| Giffin (Gordon D.) | Director of Issuer | Open-market sell | Mar 24, 2026 | 25,000 | $49.83 | $1.25M | Direct |
| Cannon (Margaret Elizabeth) | Director of Issuer | Open-market sell | Mar 11, 2026 | 2,000 | $45.89 | $92K | Indirect |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 2.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would CNQ do to your portfolio?
Add Canadian Natural Resources Limited at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
CNQ is currently tagged:IncomeWeak match (32/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Canadian Natural Resources Limited · CNQ
CNQ: 59% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 23%.
Outperform prob.
59%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-2.8% → +21.2%
mid +9.2% / yr
Downside (p20)
-11.0%
stress -21.9%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 74/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from ownership.
Composite
74
/ 100
Deep valueval.
74/ 100
P/B 2.96× · FCF yield 5.5%
Margin of safetyval.
74/ 100
14% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$69.94
+8.6% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 22%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$53.80
+3.0% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 22% operating margin holds, -1% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Canadian Natural Resources Limited vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Energy. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CNQ | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 14.8× | — | 9.0× |
| P/B | 2.96× | 2.60× | — | 1.20× |
| Dividend yield | 4.07% | 5.20% | — | 5.50% |
| ROE | 22.8% |
Earnings reaction explainer
CNQ missed materially — -39.6% below consensus.
Reported EPS $1.17 vs $1.94 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 21.8%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Aug 6 · consensus EPS $1.94 · last actual $1.17
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
3.42
P/B Ratio
2.96
EPS Growth
-45.3%
Revenue Growth
-1.2%
Debt / Equity
0.45
Net Cash / Share
$-9.21
Return on Equity
22.8%
Gross Margin
48.7%
Operating Margin
21.8%
FCF / Share
$2.56
Current Ratio
0.98