COF
Capital One Financial CorporationFinancial ServicesCredit ServicesRisk-First
$184.85 · 15min delay
β 1.05A steady large-cap risk-flagged situation trading at a discounted valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $174.9852-wk high $259.64
Mkt Cap
$115.03B
P/E
—
PEG
0.20
P/B
1.07
Dividend
1.74%
ROE
3.3%
About the business
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, time deposits, and sweep accounts. Its loan products include credit card and personal loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; bank lending; and provides advisory, capital markets, net interchange, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Who would buy COF?
Consensus 28/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
3 5 7
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive100/100
P/B < 1.5 1.07× clears "< 1.50×".
- Seth Klarman· Klarman Margin of Safety100/100
Net Cash > 0 $37.78 clears "> $0.00".
- Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First100/100
Net Cash Positive $37.78 clears "> $0.00".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 70/100
7 insiders sold $18.0M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 277,174 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KARAM CELIA EDWARDS | Officer | Open-market sell | May 1, 2026 | 1,749 | $192.58 | $337K | Direct |
| LAPRADE FRANK G. III | Officer | Award / grant | Apr 7, 2026 | 11,041 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEAN LIA | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 1, 2026 | 1,692 | $185.61 | $314K | Direct |
| KARAM CELIA EDWARDS | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 1, 2026 | 1,099 | $185.61 | $204K | Direct |
| FAIRBANK RICHARD D | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 122,539 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ZAMSKY MICHAEL | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 6,047 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RAGHU RAVI | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 4,834 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOUADEB MARK DANIEL | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 5,142 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WEST KARA | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 4,477 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| YOUNG ANDREW M | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 7,656 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BLINDE NEAL A | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 8,342 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HAGGERTY KAITLIN | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 5,316 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LAPRADE FRANK G. III | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 12,154 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| COOPER MATTHEW W. | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 8,094 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEAN LIA | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 8,094 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KARAM CELIA EDWARDS | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 7,429 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ALEXANDER ROBERT M. | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 9,957 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SANJIV YAJNIK | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 9,922 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEAN LIA | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 3,284 | $191.00 | $627K | Direct |
| KARAM CELIA EDWARDS | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,636 | $191.00 | $312K | Direct |
| MOUADEB MARK DANIEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 26, 2026 | 1,593 | $210.00 | $335K | Direct |
| MOUADEB MARK DANIEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 25, 2026 | 1,509 | $202.62 | $306K | Direct |
| HANSON JASON P | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 25, 2026 | 3,729 | $205.00 | $764K | Direct |
| BLINDE NEAL A | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 24, 2026 | 38,135 | $190.51 | $7.27M | Direct |
| FAIRBANK RICHARD D | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 45,029 | — | — | Direct |
| DEAN LIA | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 4, 2026 | 3,284 | $223.68 | $735K | Direct |
| FAIRBANK RICHARD D | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Feb 3, 2026 | 1,048 | — | — | Direct |
| ZAMSKY MICHAEL | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 5,231 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RAGHU RAVI | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 4,443 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOUADEB MARK DANIEL | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 7,331 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WEST KARA | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 6,165 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HANSON JASON P | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 4,714 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| YOUNG ANDREW M | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 6,759 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BLINDE NEAL A | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 6,794 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HAGGERTY KAITLIN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 5,373 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LAPRADE FRANK G. III | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 8,150 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GOLDEN TIMOTHY P. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 3,443 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| COOPER MATTHEW W. | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 8,239 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEAN LIA | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 6,682 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KARAM CELIA EDWARDS | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 3, 2026 | 5,719 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.9% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +277,174 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.
What would COF do to your portfolio?
Add Capital One Financial Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
COF is currently tagged:Risk-FirstFails criteria (28/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Capital One Financial Corporation · COF
COF: 45% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 5 signal families negative (medium confidence). Main risk to monitor: 59% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
45%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-11.7% → +24.3%
mid +6.3% / yr
Downside (p20)
-14.6%
stress -29.2%
Data quality
88/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 47/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
47
/ 100
Deep valueval.
97/ 100
P/B 1.07×
Margin of safetyval.
1/ 100
59% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$150.68
-4.0% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 29%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$115.91
-8.9% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 29% operating margin and 46% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Capital One Financial Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | COF | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 11.2× | 8.5× | 11.5× |
| P/B | 1.07× | 1.70× | 1.20× | 1.30× |
| Dividend yield | 1.74% | 4.60% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| ROE | 3.3% |
Earnings reaction explainer
COF missed by -7.1%.
Reported EPS $4.42 vs $4.76 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 28.6%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Already cheap; the question is whether the deterioration is cyclical (digestible) or structural (avoid).
News & events
Next earnings
Tue, Jul 21 · consensus EPS $4.76 · last actual $4.42
Capital One Adjusts Price Target on APA to $51 From $50, Maintains Overweight Rating
MT Newswires · just now
Consumer Finance Companies Poised to Meet Outlooks Amid Acceleration in Spending, Loan Trends, RBC Says
MT Newswires · just now
Analyst Report: Capital One Financial Corporation
Morningstar Research · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.20
P/B Ratio
1.07
EPS Growth
-3.2%
Revenue Growth
46.3%
Debt / Equity
N/A
Net Cash / Share
$37.78
Return on Equity
3.3%
Gross Margin
0.0%
Operating Margin
28.6%
FCF / Share
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A