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CSX logo

CSX

CSX Corporation
IndustrialsRailroadsMomentum
$44.38 · 15min delay
β 1.24

A high-quality large-cap momentum story trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

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52-wk low $30.1752-wk high $46.55

Mkt Cap

$82.46B

P/E

—

PEG

2.08

P/B

6.07

Dividend

1.25%

ROE

23.7%

About the business

CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It also transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, minerals, automotive, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. In addition, the company provides intermodal services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 20,000 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns 3400 locomotives. It serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

Who would buy CSX?

Consensus 18/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

1 5 9

Endorses

· 1 framework
  • William O'Neil· Momentum / CAN SLIM88/100

    Within 15% of 52-wk high -4.7% clears "> -15.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Walter Schloss· Schloss Deep Value0/100

    P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 6.07× — fails "< 1.00×".

Insider activity · Mixed

Open-market buying concentrated in one insider

Strength 35/100

Buying is limited to a single filer (ANGEL STEPHEN F, $1.0M). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 179,953 shares.

  • Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.

In Prism's context

Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 18/100) and the archetype read (Momentum).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
WHISLER J STEVENDirectorAward / grantMar 13, 2026954$39.30$37KIndirect
ANGEL STEPHEN FChief Executive OfficerOpen-market buyMar 6, 202625,000$40.27$1.01MDirect
ZILLMER JOHN JDirectorStock Gift at price 0.00 per share.Mar 2, 20265,850$0.00$0Direct
ZILLMER JOHN JDirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 202610,317$0.00$0Direct
CHAND M RIZWANOfficerAward / grantFeb 26, 202611,724$0.00$0Direct
RIEFLER LINDA HDirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Indirect
ANGEL STEPHEN FChief Executive OfficerAward / grantFeb 26, 202663,306$0.00$0Direct
WHISLER J STEVENDirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Direct
WAINSCOTT JAMES LDirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Direct
MOFFETT DAVID MDirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Indirect
BOONE KEVIN SChief Financial OfficerAward / grantFeb 26, 202615,241$0.00$0Direct
FORTUNE STEPHENChief Technology OfficerAward / grantFeb 26, 202610,903$0.00$0Direct
CORY MICHAEL AChief Operating OfficerAward / grantFeb 26, 202615,241$0.00$0Direct
BURNS MICHAEL S.OfficerAward / grantFeb 26, 20268,207$0.00$0Direct
BEGEMAN ANNDirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Direct
KENNEY MARYCLARE TOfficerAward / grantFeb 26, 20269,379$0.00$0Direct
HALVERSON STEVEN TDirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Indirect
HILAL PAUL C. J.D.DirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Direct
VAUTRINOT SUZANNE M.DirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Indirect
CHOW ANNE HDirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Direct
BOSTICK THOMAS P PH.D.DirectorAward / grantFeb 26, 20264,455$0.00$0Indirect
WILLIAMS ANGELA COfficerAward / grantFeb 26, 20261,876$0.00$0Direct
SORFLEET DIANA BOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 19, 202690,000$41.56$3.74MDirect
SORFLEET DIANA BOfficerOption exerciseFeb 19, 202690,000$20.38$1.83MDirect
FORTUNE STEPHENChief Technology OfficerOpen-market sellFeb 3, 202631,456$38.65$1.22MDirect
FORTUNE STEPHENChief Technology OfficerOption exerciseFeb 3, 202631,456$31.67$996KDirect
SORFLEET DIANA BOfficerOpen-market sellJan 28, 202666,667$37.48$2.50MDirect
BOONE KEVIN SChief Financial OfficerAward / grantJan 23, 20263,113$0.00$0Direct
FORTUNE STEPHENChief Technology OfficerAward / grantJan 23, 20262,298$0.00$0Direct
CORY MICHAEL AChief Operating OfficerAward / grantJan 23, 20262,397$0.00$0Direct
BURNS MICHAEL S.OfficerAward / grantJan 23, 2026298$0.00$0Direct
KENNEY MARYCLARE TOfficerAward / grantJan 23, 2026355$0.00$0Direct
WILLIAMS ANGELA COfficerAward / grantJan 23, 2026336$0.00$0Direct
SORFLEET DIANA BOfficerAward / grantJan 23, 20262,298$0.00$0Direct
WHISLER J STEVENDirectorAward / grantDec 15, 20251,681$37.18$63KIndirect
HILAL PAUL C. J.D.DirectorStock Gift at price 0.00 per share.Dec 4, 202510,000$0.00$0Direct
KENNEY MARYCLARE TOfficerAward / grantNov 14, 20251,296$0.00$0Direct

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +179,953 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: Price near 52-week highs despite weak framework scores — market enthusiasm is running ahead of the fundamentals most legends look at.

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Full framework decision report

See how Lynch, Buffett, Graham, Greenblatt, Fisher and more each score this stock — with every rule, threshold, and reason exposed.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would CSX do to your portfolio?

Add CSX Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

CSX is currently tagged:MomentumFails criteria (18/100)

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

CSX Corporation · CSX

CSX: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 24%. Main risk to monitor: 60% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
48%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-4.6% → +19.4%
mid +7.4% / yr
Downside (p20)
-16.9%
stress -33.7%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 49/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.

Composite
49
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
43/ 100

P/B 6.07× · FCF yield 1.4%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

60% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~25%
$36.10
-4.0% / yr (5y)

Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 36%
  • • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%
$27.77
-9.0% / yr (5y)

Business continues to compound at recent rates — 36% operating margin holds, 2% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.

Global value comparison

CSX Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricCSXGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—15.5×13.0×16.0×
P/B6.07×2.00×1.70×2.40×
Dividend yield1.25%3.00%2.60%2.20%
ROE23.7%
Earnings reaction explainer

CSX missed materially — -12.6% below consensus.

Big miss· -12.6%

Reported EPS $0.43 vs $0.49 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 36.2%.

  • Quality investorsNegative

    A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.

  • Growth investorsNegative

    Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.

  • Value investorsNegative

    Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.

News & events

Next earnings

Wed, Apr 22 · consensus EPS $0.49 · last actual $0.43

  • Evercore ISI Adjusts CSX Price Target to $46 From $44

    MT Newswires · just now

  • Weekly Stock List

    Argus Research · just now

  • CSX Insider Ups Holding By 1,701% During Year

    Simply Wall St. · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

2.08

P/B Ratio

6.07

EPS Growth

26.5%

Revenue Growth

1.7%

Debt / Equity

1.43

Net Cash / Share

$-9.86

Return on Equity

23.7%

Gross Margin

46.8%

Operating Margin

36.2%

FCF / Share

$0.61

Current Ratio

0.97

Seth Klarman
· Klarman Margin of Safety
0/100

FCF Yield > 7% is 1.4% — fails "> 7.0%".

  • Fama / French· Pure Value Factor0/100

    P/B < 1.5 is 6.07× — fails "< 1.50×".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    49/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 2 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationnegative

      Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

      60% above fair value1.4% FCF yield (thin)
      21
      /100
    • Qualitypositive

      Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.

      ROE 24%Op margin 36%EPS growth 27%
      83
      /100
    • Balance sheetnegative

      Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.

      CR 0.97 (tight)
      40
      /100
    • Momentumpositive

      Price action is firm and trending higher.

      87% through 52w range
      60
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      Insider buying ($3.0M)
      58
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsnegative

      Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.

      Big EPS miss (-13%)1 medium-severity flag
      30
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • ROE 24%
    • • Op margin 36%
    • • EPS growth 27%
    • • 87% through 52w range
    Key risks
    • • 60% above fair value
    • • 1.4% FCF yield (thin)
    • • CR 0.97 (tight)
    • • Big EPS miss (-13%)
    • • 1 medium-severity flag
    • • Possible quality trap (paying up)
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Multiple compression
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 96 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 49% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.5% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    87/ 100

    ROE 24% · Op margin 36%

    Balance sheet15%
    54/ 100

    D/E 1.43 · CR 0.97

    Insider convictionown.
    82/ 100

    1 insider buying

    Superinvestorown.
    35/ 100

    No tracked superinvestor holds it

    Shareholder yield10%
    42/ 100

    1.25% yield

    Momentum5%
    89/ 100

    87% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    74/ 100

    EPS 27% · Rev 2%

    Risk deduction: 1 pattern flagged · possible quality trap (paying up). 2 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near 2%
    • • Operating margin stays around 36%
    • • Capital returns continue at current cadence
    Bear
    ~20%
    $20.82
    -14.0% / yr (5y)

    A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.

    Drivers
    • • Growth decelerates by ~300 bps for two consecutive quarters
    • • Refinancing at higher rates pressures interest coverage
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    11.0%
    10.5%
    12.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Management explanation of cause — one-off vs structural
    • • Analyst-revision direction over the next 1-2 weeks
  • S&P Global Announces Board of Directors for Mobility Global

    PR Newswire · just now

  • CSX, CPKC upgrade Southeast Mexico Express with dedicated train, faster transit times

    GlobeNewswire · just now

  • CPKC, CSX upgrade Southeast Mexico Express with dedicated train, faster transit times

    CNW Group · just now

  • Institutional Own.

    80.3%

    Insider Own.

    0.2%

    Dividend Yield

    1.25%

    Book Value / Share

    $7.31