
A high-quality large-cap momentum story trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
Mkt Cap
$82.46B
P/E
—
PEG
2.08
P/B
6.07
Dividend
1.25%
ROE
23.7%
About the business
CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It also transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, minerals, automotive, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. In addition, the company provides intermodal services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 20,000 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns 3400 locomotives. It serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
Who would buy CSX?
Consensus 18/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
Endorses
· 1 frameworkWithin 15% of 52-wk high -4.7% clears "> -15.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksP/B < 1.0 (below book) is 6.07× — fails "< 1.00×".
Buying is limited to a single filer (ANGEL STEPHEN F, $1.0M). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 179,953 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 18/100) and the archetype read (Momentum).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHISLER J STEVEN | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 954 | $39.30 | $37K | Indirect |
| ANGEL STEPHEN F | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market buy | Mar 6, 2026 | 25,000 | $40.27 | $1.01M | Direct |
| ZILLMER JOHN J | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Mar 2, 2026 | 5,850 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ZILLMER JOHN J | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 10,317 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CHAND M RIZWAN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 11,724 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RIEFLER LINDA H | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| ANGEL STEPHEN F | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 63,306 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WHISLER J STEVEN | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WAINSCOTT JAMES L | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOFFETT DAVID M | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| BOONE KEVIN S | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 15,241 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FORTUNE STEPHEN | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 10,903 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CORY MICHAEL A | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 15,241 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BURNS MICHAEL S. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 8,207 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BEGEMAN ANN | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KENNEY MARYCLARE T | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 9,379 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HALVERSON STEVEN T | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| HILAL PAUL C. J.D. | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| VAUTRINOT SUZANNE M. | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| CHOW ANNE H | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BOSTICK THOMAS P PH.D. | Director | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 4,455 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| WILLIAMS ANGELA C | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 1,876 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SORFLEET DIANA B | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 19, 2026 | 90,000 | $41.56 | $3.74M | Direct |
| SORFLEET DIANA B | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 19, 2026 | 90,000 | $20.38 | $1.83M | Direct |
| FORTUNE STEPHEN | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 3, 2026 | 31,456 | $38.65 | $1.22M | Direct |
| FORTUNE STEPHEN | Chief Technology Officer | Option exercise | Feb 3, 2026 | 31,456 | $31.67 | $996K | Direct |
| SORFLEET DIANA B | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 28, 2026 | 66,667 | $37.48 | $2.50M | Direct |
| BOONE KEVIN S | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Jan 23, 2026 | 3,113 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FORTUNE STEPHEN | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Jan 23, 2026 | 2,298 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CORY MICHAEL A | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Jan 23, 2026 | 2,397 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BURNS MICHAEL S. | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 23, 2026 | 298 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KENNEY MARYCLARE T | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 23, 2026 | 355 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WILLIAMS ANGELA C | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 23, 2026 | 336 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SORFLEET DIANA B | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 23, 2026 | 2,298 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WHISLER J STEVEN | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 1,681 | $37.18 | $63K | Indirect |
| HILAL PAUL C. J.D. | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 4, 2025 | 10,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KENNEY MARYCLARE T | Officer | Award / grant | Nov 14, 2025 | 1,296 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +179,953 sh
Price history
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week highs despite weak framework scores — market enthusiasm is running ahead of the fundamentals most legends look at.
Add CSX Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationCSX: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 24%. Main risk to monitor: 60% above fair value.
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
P/B 6.07× · FCF yield 1.4%
60% above fair value
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 36% operating margin holds, 2% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CSX | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 6.07× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | 1.25% | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | 23.7% |
Reported EPS $0.43 vs $0.49 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 36.2%.
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
Next earnings
Wed, Apr 22 · consensus EPS $0.49 · last actual $0.43
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.08
P/B Ratio
6.07
EPS Growth
26.5%
Revenue Growth
1.7%
Debt / Equity
1.43
Net Cash / Share
$-9.86
Return on Equity
23.7%
Gross Margin
46.8%
Operating Margin
36.2%
FCF / Share
$0.61
Current Ratio
0.97
FCF Yield > 7% is 1.4% — fails "> 7.0%".
P/B < 1.5 is 6.07× — fails "< 1.50×".
Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.
Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.
Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.
Price action is firm and trending higher.
Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.
Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.
Among 96 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 49% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.5% / yr.
ROE 24% · Op margin 36%
D/E 1.43 · CR 0.97
1 insider buying
No tracked superinvestor holds it
1.25% yield
87% through 52w range
EPS 27% · Rev 2%
A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.
| 11.0% |
| 10.5% |
| 12.0% |
Institutional Own.
80.3%
Insider Own.
0.2%
Dividend Yield
1.25%
Book Value / Share
$7.31