CVX
Chevron CorporationEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedIncome
$186.59 · 15min delay
β 0.50A steady mega-cap income stock trading near fair value. Most frameworks reject it today.
52-wk low $133.7752-wk high $214.71
Mkt Cap
$371.61B
P/E
—
PEG
0.84
P/B
2.01
Dividend
3.85%
ROE
6.6%
About the business
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration for, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and operation of a gas-to-liquids plant. Its Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The All Other segment engages in cash management and debt financing; insurance; real estate; and technology activities. It has operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Who would buy CVX?
Consensus 8/100 · Aligned · Investors mostly agree.
0 7 8
Endorses
· 1 framework- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income63/100
Dividend Yield > 2% 3.9% clears "> 2.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100
ROE > 20% is 6.6% — fails "> 20.0%".
- Seth Klarman
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 70/100
9 insiders sold $190.6M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net sellers by 574,608 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOYO DAMBISA F | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | May 6, 2026 | 780 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HESS JOHN B JR. | Director | Open-market sell | May 6, 2026 | 195,000 | $184.78 | $36.03M | Indirect |
| PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 30, 2026 | 40,200 | $213.30 | $8.57M | Direct |
| PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | Option exercise | Mar 30, 2026 | 40,200 | $125.35 | $5.04M | Direct |
| PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 6, 2026 | 47,200 | $192.12 | $9.07M | Direct |
| PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | Option exercise | Mar 6, 2026 | 47,200 | $113.01 | $5.33M | Direct |
| NELSON MARK A. | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 139,600 | $187.92 | $26.23M | Direct |
| NELSON MARK A. | Officer | Option exercise | Mar 2, 2026 | 139,600 | $111.55 | $15.57M | Direct |
| BONNER EIMEAR P | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 45,800 | $187.78 | $8.60M | Direct |
| BONNER EIMEAR P | Chief Financial Officer | Option exercise | Mar 2, 2026 | 45,800 | $162.69 | $7.45M | Direct |
| WALZ ANDREW BENJAMIN | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 11,600 | $188.58 | $2.19M | Direct |
| WALZ ANDREW BENJAMIN | Officer | Option exercise | Mar 2, 2026 | 11,600 | $100.81 | $1.17M | Direct |
| WIRTH MICHAEL K | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 272,624 | $189.35 | $51.62M | Direct |
| WIRTH MICHAEL K | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Mar 2, 2026 | 272,624 | $121.25 | $33.06M | Direct |
| PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 93,475 | $187.67 | $17.54M | Direct |
| PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | Option exercise | Mar 2, 2026 | 93,475 | $112.98 | $10.56M | Direct |
| GUSTAVSON JEFF B. | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 27, 2026 | 6,667 | $186.04 | $1.24M | Direct |
| GUSTAVSON JEFF B. | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 27, 2026 | 6,667 | $125.35 | $836K | Direct |
| KNOWLES ALANA K. | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 18, 2026 | 2,408 | $183.28 | $441K | Direct |
| WALZ ANDREW BENJAMIN | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 18, 2026 | 1,463 | $183.83 | $269K | Direct |
| BOOTH THOMAS RYDER | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 13, 2026 | 12,198 | $184.21 | $2.25M | Direct |
| BOOTH THOMAS RYDER | Chief Technology Officer | Option exercise | Feb 12, 2026 | 10,600 | $110.37 | $1.17M | Direct |
| WALZ ANDREW BENJAMIN | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 12, 2026 | 666 | $183.40 | $122K | Direct |
| BOOTH THOMAS RYDER | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 11, 2026 | 5 | $184.80 | $924 | Indirect |
| NELSON MARK A. | Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 6,995 | — | — | Direct |
| KNOWLES ALANA K. | Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 1,812 | — | — | Direct |
| BONNER EIMEAR P | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 5,017 | — | — | Direct |
| GUSTAVSON JEFF B. | Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 1,898 | — | — | Direct |
| BOOTH THOMAS RYDER | Chief Technology Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 1,462 | — | — | Direct |
| WALZ ANDREW BENJAMIN | Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 2,209 | — | — | Direct |
| NEFF ROBERT CLAY JR | Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 3,638 | — | — | Direct |
| WIRTH MICHAEL K | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 19,564 | — | — | Direct |
| PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | Transaction | Feb 10, 2026 | 4,826 | — | — | Direct |
| BOOTH THOMAS RYDER | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 3, 2026 | 6,000 | $178.43 | $1.07M | Direct |
| BOOTH THOMAS RYDER | Chief Technology Officer | Option exercise | Feb 3, 2026 | 6,000 | $113.01 | $678K | Direct |
| WALZ ANDREW BENJAMIN | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 3, 2026 | 22,200 | $176.53 | $3.92M | Direct |
| WALZ ANDREW BENJAMIN | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 3, 2026 | 22,200 | $117.15 | $2.60M | Direct |
| NELSON MARK A. | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 2, 2026 | 45,800 | $174.17 | $7.98M | Direct |
| NELSON MARK A. | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 2, 2026 | 62,059 | $90.14 | $5.59M | Direct |
| KNOWLES ALANA K. | Officer | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 3,426 | — | — | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 7.0% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: -574,608 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would CVX do to your portfolio?
Add Chevron Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
CVX is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (8/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Chevron Corporation · CVX
CVX: 47% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: D/E 0.24. Main risk to monitor: 114% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
47%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-13.9% → +22.1%
mid +4.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-6.0%
stress -12.0%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 46/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation.
Composite
46
/ 100
Deep valueval.
72/ 100
P/B 2.01× · FCF yield 3.2%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
114% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$113.16
-9.5% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 7%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$87.05
-14.1% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 7% operating margin and 2% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Chevron Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Energy. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CVX | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 14.8× | — | 9.0× |
| P/B | 2.01× | 2.60× | — | 1.20× |
| Dividend yield | 3.85% | 5.20% | — | 5.50% |
| ROE | 6.6% |
Earnings reaction explainer
CVX missed materially — -72.1% below consensus.
Reported EPS $1.41 vs $5.05 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 7.3%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Fri, Jul 31 · consensus EPS $5.05 · last actual $1.41
Is Chevron a Safe Bet in the Energy Sector?
24/7 Wall St. · just now
ADL and JLens Urge Chevron Shareholders to Vote AGAINST Proposal 6 at the Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 27, 2026
Business Wire · just now
Here's Why a Drop in Oil Prices Might Be a Warning Sign for the Economy
Motley Fool · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.84
P/B Ratio
2.01
EPS Growth
-44.5%
Revenue Growth
2.3%
Debt / Equity
0.24
Net Cash / Share
$-20.14
Return on Equity
6.6%
Gross Margin
42.4%
Operating Margin
7.3%
FCF / Share
$5.91
Current Ratio
1.09