CXW
CoreCivic, Inc.IndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesValue
$19.70 · 15min delay
β 0.68A steady small-cap business trading near fair value.
52-wk low $15.7452-wk high $23.20
Mkt Cap
$1.95B
P/E
—
PEG
1.06
P/B
1.40
Dividend
—
ROE
9.0%
About the business
CoreCivic, Inc. owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States. It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. The company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential reentry centers to help address recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. Its correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities offer rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment; food services; and work and recreational programs as well as health care services, including medical, dental, and mental health services. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
Who would buy CXW?
Consensus 9/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 4 10
Endorses
· 1 framework- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive80/100
P/B < 1.5 1.40× clears "< 1.50×".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality0/100
ROE > 15% is 9.0% — fails "> 15.0%".
- Joel Greenblatt
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 40/100
1 insiders sold $715K on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 932,656 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a cheap or stressed name is a more meaningful negative than on a compounder — the people closest to the business are not voting with their wallets. Weigh this against the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARTER COLE G | Officer | Open-market sell | May 1, 2026 | 12,500 | $20.64 | $258K | Direct |
| CARTER COLE G | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 1, 2026 | 12,500 | $18.94 | $237K | Direct |
| CARTER COLE G | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 12,500 | $17.62 | $220K | Direct |
| HININGER DAMON T | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 256,800 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GRANDE ANTHONY L. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 62,781 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MAYBERRY LUCIBETH N | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 61,450 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SWINDLE PATRICK D | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 60,583 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CARTER COLE G | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 59,846 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SWENSON DAREN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 16,164 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GARFINKLE DAVID M | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 62,781 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MARSHALL THURGOODJR | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| TRAN NINA A | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH SYBIL DAWN | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LAPPIN HARLEY G | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FISCHER ALEXANDER R. | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HYLTON STACIA A. | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HERNANDEZ-BLADES CATHERINE | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STACEY TANK | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| EMKES MARK A | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MURPHY DEVIN IGNATIUS | Director | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 8,351 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GRANDE ANTHONY L. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 37,587 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MAYBERRY LUCIBETH N | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 36,918 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SWINDLE PATRICK D | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 53,547 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CARTER COLE G | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 36,116 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SWENSON DAREN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 28,090 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GROSCHEN LAURA A | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 26,752 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GARFINKLE DAVID M | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 37,587 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GROSCHEN LAURA A | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Jan 5, 2026 | 50,968 | $19.62 | $1000K | Direct |
| FISCHER ALEXANDER R. | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 6,136 | $19.11 | $117K | Direct |
| GARFINKLE DAVID M | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 10, 2025 | 540 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 2.6% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +932,656 sh
Price history
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What would CXW do to your portfolio?
Add CoreCivic, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
CXW is currently tagged:ValueFails criteria (9/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
CoreCivic, Inc. · CXW
CXW: 51% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families positive (low confidence). Strongest support: 28% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: Reported earnings are not turning into cash.
Outperform prob.
51%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-0.3% → +23.7%
mid +11.7% / yr
Downside (p20)
-13.1%
stress -26.2%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 58/100. Strongest contribution from valuation; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.
Composite
58
/ 100
Deep valueval.
62/ 100
P/B 1.40× · FCF yield -1.6%
Margin of safetyval.
88/ 100
28% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$35.47
+12.5% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 11%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$27.28
+6.7% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 11% operating margin and 26% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
CoreCivic, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | CXW | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 1.40× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | — | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | 9.0% |
Earnings reaction explainer
CXW blew past estimates by 12.7%.
Reported EPS $0.40 vs $0.35 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 11.4%.
- Growth investorsPositive
Confirms operating leverage — 66% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
- Quality investorsPositive
If ROE (9%) and operating margin (11%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
- Value investorsNegative
Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Aug 5 · consensus EPS $0.35 · last actual $0.40
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.06
P/B Ratio
1.40
EPS Growth
65.7%
Revenue Growth
25.8%
Debt / Equity
1.02
Net Cash / Share
$-12.27
Return on Equity
9.0%
Gross Margin
23.6%
Operating Margin
11.4%
FCF / Share
$-0.32
Current Ratio
2.44