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DE logo

DE

Deere & Company
IndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachineryMomentum
$587.33 · 15min delay
β 0.97

A steady large-cap momentum story trading near fair value.

Download report

52-wk low $433.0052-wk high $674.19

Mkt Cap

$158.64B

P/E

—

PEG

1.73

P/B

6.03

Dividend

1.10%

ROE

19.6%

About the business

Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties. Deere & Company has a strategic partnership with Tarter USA to develop and produce flex wing rotary cutters. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.

Who would buy DE?

Consensus 6/100 · Aligned · Investors mostly agree.

0 4 11

Endorses

· 1 framework
  • William O'Neil· Momentum / CAN SLIM63/100

    Within 15% of 52-wk high -12.9% clears "> -15.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP0/100

    PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 1.73× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Charlie Munger
Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 45/100

2 insiders sold $32.5M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 30,752 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
PAGE GREGORY RDirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
TALTON SHEILA GDirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
HUNN LAURENCE NEILDirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
SIKES JAMES BRIANDirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
STOCKTON DMITRI LDirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
FEIGHT ROBERT PRESTONDirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
CARET LEANNE GDirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
ERWIN TAMI ADirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
HEUBERGER ALAN CLETUSDirectorAward / grantMar 4, 2026293$0.00$0Direct
REED CORY J.OfficerOpen-market sellJan 14, 202612,000$510.00$6.12MDirect
REED CORY J.OfficerOption exerciseJan 14, 202612,000$169.70$2.04MDirect
MAY JOHN C. IIChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellJan 8, 202641,472$501.49$20.80MDirect
MAY JOHN C. IIChief Executive OfficerOption exerciseJan 8, 202641,472$254.83$10.57MDirect
CAMPBELL RYAN DAVIDOfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20252,111$0.00$0Direct
PRYOR FELECIA JOfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20252,015$0.00$0Direct
JEPSEN JOSHUA AChief Financial OfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20251,919$0.00$0Direct
ROSE JUSTIN RYANOfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20252,207$0.00$0Direct
HINDMAN JAHMY J.Chief Technology OfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20251,919$0.00$0Direct
KOVAR DEANNA MOfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20252,207$0.00$0Direct
KALATHUR RAJESHChief Technology OfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20251,919$0.00$0Direct
REED CORY J.OfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20252,015$0.00$0Direct
WALKER KELLYE LOfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20251,919$0.00$0Direct
MAY JOHN C. IIChief Executive OfficerAward / grantDec 10, 20259,796$0.00$0Direct
SIKES JAMES BRIANDirectorAward / grantDec 9, 202588$0.00$0Direct
MAY JOHN C. IIChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellNov 25, 202511,106$500.08$5.55MDirect
MAY JOHN C. IIChief Executive OfficerOption exerciseNov 25, 202511,106$254.83$2.83MDirect

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +30,752 sh

Price history

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What would DE do to your portfolio?

Add Deere & Company at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

DE is currently tagged:MomentumFails criteria (6/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Deere & Company · DE

DE: 43% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Main risk to monitor: 170% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
43%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-6.9% → +17.1%
mid +5.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-15.6%
stress -31.3%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 39/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.

Composite
39
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
47/ 100

P/B 6.03× · FCF yield 2.6%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

170% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~25%
$283.09
-13.6% / yr (5y)

Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 17%
  • • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%
$217.76
-18.0% / yr (5y)

Business continues to compound at recent rates — 17% operating margin holds, -11% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.

Global value comparison

Deere & Company vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricDEGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—15.5×13.0×16.0×
P/B6.03×2.00×1.70×2.40×
Dividend yield1.10%3.00%2.60%2.20%
ROE19.6%
Earnings reaction explainer

DE missed materially — -57.6% below consensus.

Big miss· -57.6%

Reported EPS $2.42 vs $5.71 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 17.5%.

  • Quality investorsNegative

    A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.

  • Growth investorsNegative

    Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.

  • Value investorsNegative

    Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.

News & events

Next earnings

Thu, May 21 · consensus EPS $5.71 · last actual $2.42

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  • U.S. Sugar, Autonomous Solutions, Inc., and Everglades Equipment Group Announce Nation’s Largest Commercial Deployment of Autonomous Tractors in American Sugar Industry

    Business Wire · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

1.73

P/B Ratio

6.03

EPS Growth

-8.5%

Revenue Growth

-11.1%

Debt / Equity

3.76

Net Cash / Share

$-146.77

Return on Equity

19.6%

Gross Margin

26.2%

Operating Margin

17.5%

FCF / Share

$15.55

Current Ratio

2.25

· Munger Elite Quality
0/100

ROE > 25% (elite) is 19.6% — fails "> 25.0%".

  • Fama / French· Pure Value Factor0/100

    P/B < 1.5 is 6.03× — fails "< 1.50×".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    39/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 0 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationnegative

      Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

      170% above fair valueReverse DCF: priced for perfection
      10
      /100
    • Qualityneutral

      Quality is mixed — some strengths, some softness.

      ROE 20%EPS shrinking -9%
      53
      /100
    • Balance sheetneutral

      Capital structure is unremarkable — neither a stress nor a tailwind.

      D/E 3.76 (heavy)CR 2.25
      44
      /100
    • Momentumneutral

      Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.

      50
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      Net insider selling ($44.8M)2 tracked holders · peak 31.1%
      46
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsnegative

      Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.

      Big EPS miss (-58%)2 medium-severity flags
      24
      /100
    Positive drivers

    No positive drivers identified.

    Key risks
    • • 170% above fair value
    • • Reverse DCF: priced for perfection
    • • Big EPS miss (-58%)
    • • 2 medium-severity flags
    • • Possible quality trap (paying up)
    • • Balance-sheet leverage is meaningful
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Multiple compression
    • 2. Debt maturity wall
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 93 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 46% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -2.0% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    55/ 100

    ROE 20% · Op margin 17%

    Balance sheet15%
    49/ 100

    D/E 3.76 · CR 2.25

    Insider convictionown.
    52/ 100

    Net selling — 3 insiders

    Superinvestorown.
    83/ 100

    2 tracked holders · peak 31.1%

    Shareholder yield10%
    53/ 100

    1.10% yield + buyback runway

    Momentum5%
    71/ 100

    64% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    16/ 100

    EPS -9% · Rev -11%

    Risk deduction: 2 patterns flagged · possible quality trap (paying up). 4 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near -11%
    • • Operating margin stays around 17%
    • • Capital returns continue at current cadence
    Bear
    ~20%
    $163.32
    -22.6% / yr (5y)

    A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.

    Drivers
    • • Growth decelerates by ~300 bps for two consecutive quarters
    • • Refinancing at higher rates pressures interest coverage
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    11.0%
    10.5%
    12.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Management explanation of cause — one-off vs structural
    • • Analyst-revision direction over the next 1-2 weeks
    • • Interest coverage and debt maturity wall
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  • Institutional Own.

    82.5%

    Insider Own.

    0.2%

    Dividend Yield

    1.10%

    Book Value / Share

    $97.37

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 2 tracked superinvestors · peak weight 6.1%

    Grand Portfolio
    • Tom Gayner

      Markel Group · Q4 2025

      6.1%
    • Bill Gates (Foundation Trust)

      Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust · Q4 2025

      5.4%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.