
A steady large-cap momentum story trading near fair value.
Mkt Cap
$158.64B
P/E
—
PEG
1.73
P/B
6.03
Dividend
1.10%
ROE
19.6%
About the business
Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties. Deere & Company has a strategic partnership with Tarter USA to develop and produce flex wing rotary cutters. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.
Who would buy DE?
Consensus 6/100 · Aligned · Investors mostly agree.
Endorses
· 1 frameworkWithin 15% of 52-wk high -12.9% clears "> -15.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksPEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 1.73× — fails "< 1.00×".
2 insiders sold $32.5M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 30,752 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGE GREGORY R | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| TALTON SHEILA G | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SIKES JAMES BRIAN | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STOCKTON DMITRI L | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FEIGHT ROBERT PRESTON | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CARET LEANNE G | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ERWIN TAMI A | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HEUBERGER ALAN CLETUS | Director | Award / grant | Mar 4, 2026 | 293 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| REED CORY J. | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 14, 2026 | 12,000 | $510.00 | $6.12M | Direct |
| REED CORY J. | Officer | Option exercise | Jan 14, 2026 | 12,000 | $169.70 | $2.04M | Direct |
| MAY JOHN C. II | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 8, 2026 | 41,472 | $501.49 | $20.80M | Direct |
| MAY JOHN C. II | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Jan 8, 2026 | 41,472 | $254.83 | $10.57M | Direct |
| CAMPBELL RYAN DAVID | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 2,111 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PRYOR FELECIA J | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 2,015 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JEPSEN JOSHUA A | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 1,919 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROSE JUSTIN RYAN | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 2,207 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HINDMAN JAHMY J. | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 1,919 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KOVAR DEANNA M | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 2,207 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KALATHUR RAJESH | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 1,919 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| REED CORY J. | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 2,015 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WALKER KELLYE L | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 1,919 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MAY JOHN C. II | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 9,796 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SIKES JAMES BRIAN | Director | Award / grant | Dec 9, 2025 | 88 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MAY JOHN C. II | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Nov 25, 2025 | 11,106 | $500.08 | $5.55M | Direct |
| MAY JOHN C. II | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Nov 25, 2025 | 11,106 | $254.83 | $2.83M | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +30,752 sh
Price history
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
Add Deere & Company at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationDE: 43% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Main risk to monitor: 170% above fair value.
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
P/B 6.03× · FCF yield 2.6%
170% above fair value
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 17% operating margin holds, -11% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | DE | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 6.03× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | 1.10% | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | 19.6% |
Reported EPS $2.42 vs $5.71 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 17.5%.
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
Next earnings
Thu, May 21 · consensus EPS $5.71 · last actual $2.42
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P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.73
P/B Ratio
6.03
EPS Growth
-8.5%
Revenue Growth
-11.1%
Debt / Equity
3.76
Net Cash / Share
$-146.77
Return on Equity
19.6%
Gross Margin
26.2%
Operating Margin
17.5%
FCF / Share
$15.55
Current Ratio
2.25
ROE > 25% (elite) is 19.6% — fails "> 25.0%".
P/B < 1.5 is 6.03× — fails "< 1.50×".
Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.
Quality is mixed — some strengths, some softness.
Capital structure is unremarkable — neither a stress nor a tailwind.
Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.
Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.
Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.
No positive drivers identified.
Among 93 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 46% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -2.0% / yr.
ROE 20% · Op margin 17%
D/E 3.76 · CR 2.25
Net selling — 3 insiders
2 tracked holders · peak 31.1%
1.10% yield + buyback runway
64% through 52w range
EPS -9% · Rev -11%
A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.
| 11.0% |
| 10.5% |
| 12.0% |
Institutional Own.
82.5%
Insider Own.
0.2%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
Book Value / Share
$97.37
Superinvestor ownership
Held by 2 tracked superinvestors · peak weight 6.1%
Tom Gayner
Markel Group · Q4 2025
Bill Gates (Foundation Trust)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust · Q4 2025
Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.