DIS
The Walt Disney CompanyCommunication ServicesEntertainmentRisk-First
$105.69 · 15min delay
β 1.42A steady large-cap risk-flagged situation trading at a premium valuation.
52-wk low $92.1952-wk high $124.69
Mkt Cap
$183.53B
P/E
—
PEG
2.94
P/B
1.73
Dividend
1.43%
ROE
11.0%
About the business
The Walt Disney Company operates as an entertainment company in Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in three segments: Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences. The company produces and distributes film and television content under the ABC Television Network, Disney, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brand television channels, as well as ABC television stations and A+E television networks; and produces original content under the Disney Branded Television, FX Productions, Lucasfilm, Marvel, National Geographic Studios, Pixar, Searchlight Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, 20th Television, and Walt Disney Pictures banners. It also provides direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, and Hulu; sports-related video streaming content through ESPN, ESPN on ABC, ESPN+ DTC, and Star; sale/licensing of film and episodic content to television and video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; DVD and Blu-ray discs, electronic home video licenses, and VOD rental services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort, Disneyland Resort, Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, Shanghai Disney Resort, Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney, as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii. Further, it licenses its intellectual property (IP) to a third party that owns and operates Tokyo Disney Resort; licenses trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games; operates a direct-to-home satellite distribution platform; sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.
Who would buy DIS?
Consensus 9/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
0 5 10
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First67/100
Debt/Equity < 0.5 0.41 clears "< 0.50".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income63/100
Payout Ratio < 70% 20.0% clears "< 70.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Charlie Munger
Insider activity · Positive
2 insiders bought shares in the open market
Strength 85/100
Over the last ~6 months 2 different insiders made open-market purchases totalling $2.1M, against $559K of selling (including planned 10b5-1 disposals). Multi-insider open-market buying is one of the more durable positive signals because it reflects fresh-dollar conviction rather than vesting or diversification. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 135,699 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider buying adds modest supporting evidence alongside the framework read (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDONALD CALVIN | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,080 | $97.02 | $105K | Direct |
| LAGOMASINO MARIA ELENA | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,266 | $97.02 | $123K | Direct |
| DARROCH JEREMY | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,034 | $96.99 | $100K | Direct |
| RICE DERICA W | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,229 | $97.01 | $119K | Direct |
| BARRA MARY TERESA | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,253 | $96.98 | $122K | Direct |
| WILLIAMS JEFFREY E | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 154 | $97.21 | $15K | Direct |
| CHANG AMY L | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,080 | $97.02 | $105K | Direct |
| EVERSON CAROLYN | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,064 | $97.02 | $103K | Direct |
| FROMAN MICHAEL B. G. | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,087 | $97.02 | $105K | Direct |
| GORMAN JAMES P | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,477 | $96.97 | $143K | Direct |
| CHANG AMY L | Director | Open-market buy | Feb 12, 2026 | 916 | $107.85 | $99K | Direct |
| COLEMAN SONIA L | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 22, 2026 | 2,473 | $114.00 | $282K | Direct |
| COLEMAN SONIA L | Officer | Transaction | Jan 16, 2026 | 4,061 | — | — | Direct |
| WOODFORD BRENT A | Officer | Transaction | Jan 16, 2026 | 3,101 | — | — | Direct |
| GUTIERREZ HORACIO E | Officer | Transaction | Jan 15, 2026 | 7,802 | — | — | Direct |
| SCHAKE KRISTINA K | Officer | Transaction | Jan 15, 2026 | 2,653 | — | — | Direct |
| JOHNSTON HUGH F. | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Jan 15, 2026 | 9,421 | — | — | Direct |
| MCDONALD CALVIN | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 851 | $113.10 | $96K | Direct |
| LAGOMASINO MARIA ELENA | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 873 | $113.11 | $99K | Direct |
| DARROCH JEREMY | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 851 | $113.10 | $96K | Direct |
| RICE DERICA W | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 912 | $113.07 | $103K | Direct |
| BARRA MARY TERESA | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 906 | $113.13 | $102K | Direct |
| CHANG AMY L | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 851 | $113.10 | $96K | Direct |
| EVERSON CAROLYN | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 782 | $113.09 | $88K | Direct |
| FROMAN MICHAEL B. G. | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 895 | $113.03 | $101K | Direct |
| GORMAN JAMES P | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 1,216 | $113.07 | $137K | Direct |
| COLEMAN SONIA L | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 24, 2025 | 2,431 | $114.00 | $277K | Direct |
| WOODFORD BRENT A | Officer | Transaction | Dec 18, 2025 | 41 | — | — | Direct |
| GUTIERREZ HORACIO E | Officer | Transaction | Dec 15, 2025 | 42,075 | — | — | Direct |
| SCHAKE KRISTINA K | Officer | Transaction | Dec 15, 2025 | 12,777 | — | — | Direct |
| COLEMAN SONIA L | Officer | Transaction | Dec 15, 2025 | 4,942 | — | — | Direct |
| JOHNSTON HUGH F. | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Dec 15, 2025 | 12,658 | — | — | Direct |
| WOODFORD BRENT A | Officer | Transaction | Dec 15, 2025 | 3,285 | — | — | Direct |
| GORMAN JAMES P | Director | Open-market buy | Dec 12, 2025 | 18,000 | $111.89 | $2.01M | Indirect |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +135,699 sh
Price history
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What would DIS do to your portfolio?
Add The Walt Disney Company at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
DIS is currently tagged:Risk-FirstFails criteria (9/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
The Walt Disney Company · DIS
DIS: 44% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Main risk to monitor: 64% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
44%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-13.5% → +22.5%
mid +4.5% / yr
Downside (p20)
-19.0%
stress -38.0%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 45/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
45
/ 100
Deep valueval.
71/ 100
P/B 1.73× · FCF yield 2.0%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
64% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$84.01
-4.5% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 16%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$64.63
-9.4% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 16% operating margin and 7% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
The Walt Disney Company vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Communication Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | DIS | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 14.2× | — | 13.5× |
| P/B | 1.73× | 2.10× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | 1.43% | 4.40% | — | 4.00% |
| ROE | 11.0% |
Earnings reaction explainer
DIS missed materially — -15.8% below consensus.
Reported EPS $1.57 vs $1.86 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 15.5%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Aug 5 · consensus EPS $1.86 · last actual $1.57
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.94
P/B Ratio
1.73
EPS Growth
-29.8%
Revenue Growth
6.5%
Debt / Equity
0.41
Net Cash / Share
$-24.00
Return on Equity
11.0%
Gross Margin
37.2%
Operating Margin
15.5%
FCF / Share
$2.16
Current Ratio
0.68