FDX
FedEx CorporationIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsGrowth
$375.54 · 15min delay
β 1.30A steady large-cap growth story trading near fair value.
52-wk low $214.3552-wk high $404.03
Mkt Cap
$89.61B
P/E
—
PEG
1.34
P/B
3.01
Dividend
1.53%
ROE
15.9%
About the business
FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. The company offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services. It also provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks; printing and shipping management, including digital printing, professional finishing, document creation, design solutions, direct mail, signs and graphics, custom-branded boxes, copying, computer rental, free Wi-Fi, corporate print solutions, shredding, expedited U.S. passport processing and renewal, and digital notarization; packing services, as well as packing supplies and boxes; document and business services; and retail access for package transportation. In addition, the company offers logistics services, air and ocean freight-forwarding and cargo transportation, specialty transportation, customs brokerage and clearance, trade management tools and data, and door-to-door solutions; and third party logistics and supply chain management solutions, such as inbound logistics, warehousing and distribution, fulfillment, contract packaging and product configuration, systems integration, returns process and disposition, test, repair, refurbishment, and product liquidation. Further, it provides sales, marketing, administrative, information technology, and back-office support services. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Who would buy FDX?
Consensus 3/100 · Aligned · Investors mostly agree.
0 3 12
Endorses
· 0 frameworksNo framework reaches a strong endorsement at current metrics.
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100
ROE > 20% is 15.9% — fails "> 20.0%".
- Charlie Munger· Munger Elite Quality0/100
ROE > 25% (elite) is 15.9% — fails "> 25.0%".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 60/100
5 insiders sold $18.6M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 66,983 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature growth name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA | Director | Option exercise | May 5, 2026 | 4,123 | $245.59 | $1.01M | Direct |
| GORMAN STEPHEN E | Director | Option exercise | Apr 27, 2026 | 4,727 | $146.62 | $693K | Direct |
| SUBRAMANIAM RAJESH | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Apr 20, 2026 | 21,305 | $230.79 | $4.92M | Direct |
| SCHWAB SUSAN C | Director | Open-market sell | Apr 15, 2026 | 5,795 | $369.00 | $2.14M | Direct |
| SCHWAB SUSAN C | Director | Option exercise | Apr 15, 2026 | 5,795 | $231.55 | $1.34M | Direct |
| BRIGHTMAN TRACY B | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 15, 2026 | 16,959 | $363.47 | $6.16M | Direct |
| BRIGHTMAN TRACY B | Officer | Option exercise | Apr 15, 2026 | 11,865 | $251.73 | $2.99M | Direct |
| ADAMS GINA F | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Apr 14, 2026 | 20,450 | $366.45 | $7.49M | Direct |
| ADAMS GINA F | General Counsel | Option exercise | Apr 14, 2026 | 20,450 | $150.47 | $3.08M | Direct |
| ERWIN GUY M II | Officer | Option exercise | Apr 14, 2026 | 5,313 | $238.03 | $1.26M | Direct |
| PREET KAWAL | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 14, 2026 | 4,900 | $367.89 | $1.80M | Direct |
| PREET KAWAL | Officer | Option exercise | Apr 14, 2026 | 4,900 | $209.37 | $1.03M | Direct |
| CARERE BRIE | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 14, 2026 | 2,700 | $370.03 | $999K | Direct |
| SMITH RICHARD W. | Officer and Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Apr 14, 2026 | 600 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| SMITH RICHARD W. | Officer and Director | Option exercise | Apr 14, 2026 | 3,805 | $162.82 | $620K | Direct |
| MARTIN ROBERT BRAD | Officer and Director | Option exercise | Apr 14, 2026 | 15,100 | $186.83 | $2.82M | Direct |
| MARTIN ROBERT BRAD | Officer and Director | Award / grant | Mar 23, 2026 | 4,153 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SUBRAMANIAM RAJESH | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Feb 18, 2026 | 13,225 | $162.82 | $2.15M | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 7.4% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +66,983 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would FDX do to your portfolio?
Add FedEx Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
FDX is currently tagged:GrowthFails criteria (3/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
FedEx Corporation · FDX
FDX: 43% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Main risk to monitor: 68% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
43%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-7.2% → +16.8%
mid +4.8% / yr
Downside (p20)
-20.6%
stress -41.3%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 42/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.
Composite
42
/ 100
Deep valueval.
60/ 100
P/B 3.01× · FCF yield 1.0%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
68% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$290.27
-5.0% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 7%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$223.28
-9.9% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 7% operating margin holds, 8% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
FedEx Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | FDX | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 3.01× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | 1.53% | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | 15.9% |
Earnings reaction explainer
FDX missed materially — -10.6% below consensus.
Reported EPS $5.25 vs $5.88 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 6.9%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Tue, Jun 23 · consensus EPS $5.88 · last actual $5.25
Assessing FedEx (FDX) Valuation After Freight Spin Off Plan Cost Savings Progress And Amazon Competition
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North America Open Banking Market Analysis Report 2026: Expansion Driven by CFPB's Section 1033 Rule, Cloud Adoption, FedNow's Real-time Payments, and Rising Demand for Embedded Finance
GlobeNewswire · just now
UPS Surcharges And FedEx Fees Test Pricing Power And Valuation
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.34
P/B Ratio
3.01
EPS Growth
17.3%
Revenue Growth
8.3%
Debt / Equity
1.41
Net Cash / Share
$-141.67
Return on Equity
15.9%
Gross Margin
27.6%
Operating Margin
6.9%
FCF / Share
$3.75
Current Ratio
1.47