FERG
Ferguson Enterprises Inc.IndustrialsIndustrial DistributionMomentum
$238.91 · 15min delay
β 1.20A steady large-cap momentum story trading near fair value. Most frameworks reject it today.
52-wk low $174.9952-wk high $271.64
Mkt Cap
$46.33B
P/E
—
PEG
1.55
P/B
7.90
Dividend
1.46%
ROE
—
About the business
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. distributes essential water and air solutions to specialized professional in the United States and Canada. The company provides various products and services, including plumbing; pipe, valves, and fittings; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning; appliances; lighting; and water and wastewater solutions to residential and non-residential customers. It also supplies specialized water and wastewater treatment products to residential, commercial, and infrastructure contractors, as well as supplies pipe, valves, and fittings solutions to industrial customers. In addition, it offers customized solutions, such as virtual design, fabrication, valve actuation, pre-assembly, kitting, installation, and project management services, as well as after-sales support that comprises warranty, credit, project-based billing, returns and maintenance, and repair and operations support. The company sells its products through a network of distribution centers, branches, counter service and sales associates, showroom consultants, and e-commerce channels. Ferguson Enterprises Inc. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Newport News, Virginia.
Who would buy FERG?
Consensus 1/100 · Aligned · Investors mostly agree.
0 1 14
Endorses
· 0 frameworksNo framework reaches a strong endorsement at current metrics.
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality0/100
Operating Margin > 20% is 8.1% — fails "> 20.0%".
- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100
Operating Margin > 15% is 8.1% — fails "> 15.0%".
Insider activity · Mixed
Insider activity is mixed
Strength 30/100
Prism sees a mix of buys, sells, and option activity over the last 6 months. The pattern is neither a clear positive nor a clear negative.
- Very small sample (<3 transactions in window).
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 1/100) and the archetype read (Momentum).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metcalf (James) | — | Transaction | Apr 30, 2026 | 14 | — | — | Direct |
| Baker (Kelly A) | — | Transaction | Apr 30, 2026 | 1 | — | — | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.8% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would FERG do to your portfolio?
Add Ferguson Enterprises Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
FERG is currently tagged:MomentumFails criteria (1/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. · FERG
FERG: 44% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Main risk to monitor: 105% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
44%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-5.2% → +18.8%
mid +6.8% / yr
Downside (p20)
-14.4%
stress -28.8%
Data quality
93/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 37/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation.
Composite
37
/ 100
Deep valueval.
15/ 100
P/B 7.90×
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
105% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$151.41
-8.7% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 8%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$116.47
-13.4% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 8% operating margin and 4% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | FERG | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 7.90× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | 1.46% | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | — |
Earnings reaction explainer
FERG missed materially — -30.5% below consensus.
Reported EPS $2.28 vs $3.28 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 8.1%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Tue, Aug 4 · consensus EPS $3.28 · last actual $2.28
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.55
P/B Ratio
7.90
EPS Growth
23.0%
Revenue Growth
3.6%
Debt / Equity
1.04
Net Cash / Share
$-27.13
Return on Equity
N/A
Gross Margin
30.7%
Operating Margin
8.1%
FCF / Share
N/A
Current Ratio
1.78