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FLUT logo

FLUT

Flutter Entertainment plc
Consumer CyclicalGamblingCyclical
$98.41 · 15min delay
β 1.15

A steady large-cap cyclical trading at a discounted valuation. Most frameworks reject it today.

Download report

52-wk low $93.5652-wk high $313.69

Mkt Cap

$17.08B

P/E

—

PEG

0.19

P/B

1.91

Dividend

—

ROE

-5.0%

About the business

Flutter Entertainment plc operates as a sports betting and gaming company in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, Italy, and internationally. It provides sportsbooks; iGaming products, such as blackjack, roulette, slot machines, poker, and rummy, as well as lottery products; and sports betting products, which include Betfair betting exchanges, daily fantasy sports, and horse racing wagering under the TVG brand. The company offers sports betting and gaming services through fanduel.com, tvg.com, betfair.com, paddypower.com, and paddypower.ie, sportsbet.com.au, pokerstars.com, betfair.com, sisal.it, maxbet.rs, and adjarabet.com websites under the FanDuel, Sky Betting & Gaming, Sportsbet, PokerStars, Paddy Power, Sisal, tombola, Betfair, TVG, Adjarabet, and MaxBet brands, as well as live poker tours and events. It also provides business-to-business pricing and risk management services. The company was formerly known as Paddy Power Betfair plc and changed its name to Flutter Entertainment plc in 2019. Flutter Entertainment plc was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Who would buy FLUT?

Consensus 2/100 · Aligned · Investors mostly agree.

0 2 13

Endorses

· 0 frameworks

No framework reaches a strong endorsement at current metrics.

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive0/100

    P/B < 1.5 is 1.91× — fails "< 1.50×".

  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100

    ROE > 20% is -5.0% — fails "> 20.0%".

Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 50/100

3 insiders sold $1.9M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 116,356 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
LIU DON HOfficerAward / grantMar 11, 20269,394$0.00$0Direct
HOWE AMY HOfficerAward / grantMar 11, 202614,949$0.00$0Direct
HOWE AMY HOfficerOpen-market sellMar 11, 20268,895$105.91$942KDirect
HOWE AMY HOfficerTransactionMar 11, 202617,934——Direct
BISHOP JAMES PHILIPChief Operating OfficerAward / grantMar 11, 202611,893$0.00$0Direct
TAYLOR DANIEL MARKOfficerAward / grantMar 11, 202615,371$0.00$0Direct
JACKSON JEREMY PETERChief Executive OfficerAward / grantMar 11, 202631,684$0.00$0Direct
JACKSON JEREMY PETERChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellMar 11, 20264,326$108.00$467KDirect
JACKSON JEREMY PETERChief Executive OfficerTransactionMar 11, 20269,170——Direct
COLDRAKE ROBERTChief Financial OfficerAward / grantMar 11, 202613,339$0.00$0Direct
COLDRAKE ROBERTChief Financial OfficerOpen-market sellMar 11, 20264,613$106.45$491KDirect
COLDRAKE ROBERTChief Financial OfficerTransactionMar 11, 20269,779——Direct
BOMHARD STEFAN ANDREASDirectorAward / grantMar 2, 2026677$0.00$0Direct

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 18.9% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +116,356 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.

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AI summaries

Members get a plain-English 'what matters now' brief plus an explanation of why the price is moving, grounded in Prism's framework scores.

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Full framework decision report

See how Lynch, Buffett, Graham, Greenblatt, Fisher and more each score this stock — with every rule, threshold, and reason exposed.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would FLUT do to your portfolio?

Add Flutter Entertainment plc at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

FLUT is currently tagged:CyclicalFails criteria (2/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Flutter Entertainment plc · FLUT

FLUT: 38% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Main risk to monitor: 91% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
38%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
low confidence
Expected return
-12.9% → +23.1%
mid +5.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-17.8%
stress -35.7%
Data quality
78/100
Good
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 29/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.

Composite
29
/ 100
Avoid
Deep valueval.
48/ 100

P/B 1.91× · FCF yield -5.1%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

91% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~20%
$67.05
-7.4% / yr (5y)

A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 2%
  • • Stranded asset value crystallises
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%
$51.58
-12.1% / yr (5y)

No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 2% operating margin and 17% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.

Global value comparison

Flutter Entertainment plc vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricFLUTGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—17.5×—14.0×
P/B1.91×2.40×—2.00×
Dividend yield—2.40%—2.40%
ROE-5.0%
Earnings reaction explainer

FLUT blew past estimates by 135.7%.

Big beat· +135.7%

Reported EPS $1.22 vs $0.52 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 2.3%.

  • Growth investorsPositive

    Confirms operating leverage — -22% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.

  • Quality investorsPositive

    If ROE (-5%) and operating margin (2%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.

  • Value investorsNegative

    Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.

News & events

Next earnings

Thu, Aug 6 · consensus EPS $0.52 · last actual $1.22

  • Flutter Entertainment Reshapes FanDuel Leadership As Shares Trade Below Targets

    Simply Wall St. · just now

  • Flutter’s US profit targets may be too good to be true, warns Citi

    Proactive · just now

  • Why Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Is Down 10.0% After Q1 Miss, CEO Exit And Leadership Shake-Up

    Simply Wall St. · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

0.19

P/B Ratio

1.91

EPS Growth

-21.7%

Revenue Growth

17.4%

Debt / Equity

1.29

Net Cash / Share

$-63.53

Return on Equity

-5.0%

Gross Margin

44.2%

Operating Margin

2.3%

FCF / Share

$-5.06

Current Ratio

0.90

Charlie Munger· Munger Elite Quality0/100

ROE > 25% (elite) is -5.0% — fails "> 25.0%".

See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
29/100
Low agreement
Signal families · 0 of 6 signal families negative
Agreement: Low
  • Valuationnegative

    Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

    91% above fair value
    25
    /100
  • Qualitynegative

    Returns are sub-cost-of-capital; quality bar not met.

    ROE -5% (weak)Op margin 2% (thin)EPS shrinking -22%
    16
    /100
  • Balance sheetnegative

    Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.

    CR 0.90 (tight)Thin interest coverage
    30
    /100
  • Momentumnegative

    Price has been weak — momentum is a headwind.

    Near 52w lows (2%)69% off 52w high
    40
    /100
  • Behaviouralneutral

    Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

    Net insider selling ($11.7M)1 tracked holders · peak 11.1%
    42
    /100
  • Catalysts & eventsneutral

    Mixed catalyst picture.

    Big EPS beat (+136%)2 medium-severity flags
    50
    /100
Positive drivers

No positive drivers identified.

Key risks
  • • 91% above fair value
  • • ROE -5% (weak)
  • • Op margin 2% (thin)
  • • EPS shrinking -22%
  • • CR 0.90 (tight)
  • • Operating leverage appears to have reversed
  • • Dilution risk if cash burn continues
Suggested diligence questions
  • 1. Operating-margin trend
  • 2. Quarterly burn vs guidance
Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

Among 89 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 42% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -3.9% / yr.

Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
View full thesis
Quality20%
23/ 100

ROE -5% · Op margin 2%

Balance sheet15%
56/ 100

D/E 1.29 · CR 0.90

Insider convictionown.
55/ 100

Net selling — 14 insiders

Superinvestorown.
79/ 100

1 tracked holder · peak 11.1%

Shareholder yield10%
25/ 100

Buyback runway via FCF

Momentum5%
22/ 100

2% through 52w range

Growth5%
35/ 100

EPS -22% · Rev 17%

Risk deduction: 2 patterns flagged · operating leverage appears to have reversed. 4 points removed from composite.

Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

Customise weights
Drivers
  • • Revenue growth holds near 17%
  • • Operating margin stays around 2%
  • • No major balance-sheet surprises
Bear
~35%
$38.69
-17.0% / yr (5y)

Already-thin margins compress further on input-cost or pricing pressure; revenue softens; the market questions whether the current earnings power is structural or one-off. Multi-year drawdown plausible.

Drivers
  • • Operating margin compresses 200–400 bps
  • • Refinancing at higher rates pressures interest coverage
  • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
Indicative weights
13.0%
—
11.0%

Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

What to watch on the next print
  • • Whether margin expansion sustains into next quarter
  • • Forward guidance update — beats without raises tend to fade

  • Flutter Entertainment Insider Sold Shares Worth $302,623, According to a Recent SEC Filing

    MT Newswires · just now

  • Sports Betting Industry Analysis Report 2026: Global Market to Surpass $198.5+ Billion by 2030, Driven by Social Betting Platforms, Evolving Technologies, Mobile Betting Apps, and 5G Adoption

    GlobeNewswire · just now

  • Flutter Entertainment Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

    MarketBeat · just now

    • Institutional Own.

    94.6%

    Insider Own.

    18.9%

    Dividend Yield

    N/A

    Book Value / Share

    $51.58

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 4.1%

    Grand Portfolio

    • Seth Klarman

      The Baupost Group · Q4 2025

      4.1%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.