GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.IndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesGrowth
$21.27 · 15min delay
β 0.81A steady mid-cap growth story trading at a discounted valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $12.5152-wk high $27.90
Mkt Cap
$2.84B
P/E
—
PEG
0.74
P/B
1.88
Dividend
—
ROE
19.3%
About the business
The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 in Florida, USA.
Who would buy GEO?
Consensus 11/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
0 4 11
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Philip Fisher· Fisher Growth75/100
Revenue Growth > 15% 16.6% clears "> 15.0%".
- Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP63/100
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) 0.74× clears "< 1.00×".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 40/100
1 insiders sold $101K on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 896,754 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature growth name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARCH SHAYN P | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 12,175 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BRACK RONALD A | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 14,515 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LONG RICHARD KENT | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 22,518 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL | Director | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 10,246 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ARDUIN DONNA KAURANEN | Director | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 10,246 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WOOD JULIE MYERS | Director | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 10,246 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MARCH SHAYN P | Officer and Treasurer | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 19,566 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BREWER JACK | Director | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 10,246 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BARTZOKIS THOMAS C. | Director | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 10,246 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ALBENCE MATTHEW T. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 25,019 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KOREN LINDSAY L | Director | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 10,246 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RYAN CHRISTOPHER D | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 18,461 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MANNARINO NICOLE | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 6, 2026 | 657 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ZOLEY GEORGE C | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 200,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 4, 2026 | 6,633 | $15.24 | $101K | Direct |
| LONG RICHARD KENT | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 30,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ZOLEY GEORGE C | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 250,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SUCHINSKI MARK J | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 48,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ALBENCE MATTHEW T. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 30,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RYAN CHRISTOPHER D | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 27,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HOUSTON DONALD E | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 27,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LAIRD PAUL M | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 30,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RAGSDALE DANIEL H | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 27,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 5.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +896,754 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A notable drawdown — worth re-reading the framework verdicts below with the cheaper price in mind.
What would GEO do to your portfolio?
Add The GEO Group, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
GEO is currently tagged:GrowthFails criteria (11/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
The GEO Group, Inc. · GEO
GEO: 49% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families positive (low confidence). Strongest support: 65% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: 2 high-severity flags.
Outperform prob.
49%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
+0.4% → +24.4%
mid +12.4% / yr
Downside (p20)
-19.8%
stress -39.6%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 59/100. Strongest contribution from valuation; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 7 points off the composite.
Composite
59
/ 100
Deep valueval.
58/ 100
P/B 1.88× · FCF yield -2.0%
Margin of safetyval.
100/ 100
65% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$79.01
+30.0% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 13%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$60.78
+23.4% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 13% operating margin holds, 17% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
The GEO Group, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | GEO | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 1.88× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | — | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | 19.3% |
Earnings reaction explainer
GEO reported in line with consensus.
Reported EPS $0.29 vs $0.29 expected. With no surprise on the headline, the share-price reaction is usually driven by guidance, KPIs, or commentary on demand. Trailing operating margin: 12.7%.
- All audiencesNeutral
In-line prints transfer the conversation from the headline to the guidance, the segment mix, and management commentary on the demand environment.
What to watch on the next print
- • Segment-level KPIs vs estimates
- • Guidance vs current consensus for the next quarter
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Aug 5 · consensus EPS $0.29 · last actual $0.29
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.74
P/B Ratio
1.88
EPS Growth
106.0%
Revenue Growth
16.6%
Debt / Equity
1.11
Net Cash / Share
$-11.82
Return on Equity
19.3%
Gross Margin
25.5%
Operating Margin
12.7%
FCF / Share
$-0.42
Current Ratio
1.75