GRBK

Green Brick Partners, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionIncome

$63.99 · 15min delay

β 1.85

A steady mid-cap income stock trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

Download report

52-wk low $56.8552-wk high $80.97

Mkt Cap

$2.76B

P/E

—

PEG

1.15

P/B

1.53

Dividend

—

ROE

—

About the business

Green Brick Partners, Inc., the third-largest homebuilder in Dallas-Fort Worth and one of Fortune Magazine's fastest-growing companies. It is a diversified homebuilding and land development company operating through its seven subsidiary homebuilders in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Green Brick owns five subsidiary homebuilders in Texas (CB JENI Homes, Normandy Homes, Southgate Homes, Trophy Signature Homes, and a 90% interest in Centre Living Homes), as well as a controlling interest in a homebuilder in Atlanta, Georgia (The Providence Group) and an 80% interest in a homebuilder in Port St. Lucie, Florida (GHO Homes). Green Brick also holds interests in related financial services platforms, including Green Brick Title, Green Brick Mortgage, and Green Brick Insurance. The company and its affiliated builders are involved in all aspects of the homebuilding process, including land acquisition, development, entitlements, design, construction, marketing, and sales for its residential neighborhoods and master-planned communities. Green Brick Partners Inc. was incorporated in Delaware.

Who would buy GRBK?

Consensus 24/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

2 9 4

Endorses

· 2 frameworks

Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
Operating Margin > 15% 18.5% clears "> 15.0%".
Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income100/100
Payout Ratio < 70% 0.0% clears "< 70.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks

Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 40/100

1 insiders sold $180K on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 71,237 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).

Insider	Role	Type	Date	Shares	Avg price	Value	Own
SAMUEL BOBBY L III	Officer	Transaction	Mar 6, 2026	8,902	—	—	Direct
COX JEFFERY DEAN	Chief Financial Officer	Transaction	Mar 6, 2026	235	—	—	Direct
COX JEFFERY DEAN	Chief Financial Officer	Award / grant	Mar 3, 2026	977	$0.00	$0	Direct
BRICKMAN, JAMES R. A.	Chief Executive Officer	Transaction	Mar 3, 2026	6,138	—	—	Direct
DOLSON JED	President	Transaction	Mar 3, 2026	3,720	—	—	Direct
SUIT NEAL J	General Counsel	Transaction	Mar 3, 2026	930	—	—	Direct
SAMUEL BOBBY L III	Officer	Transaction	Mar 3, 2026	930	—	—	Direct
COX JEFFERY DEAN	Chief Financial Officer	Option exercise	Mar 3, 2026	977	$71.81	$70K	Direct
BLAKE ELIZABETH KILCULLEN	Director	Award / grant	Mar 2, 2026	4,412	$0.00	$0	Direct
PRESS RICHARD S	Director	Award / grant	Mar 2, 2026	2,036	$0.00	$0	Direct
BRICKMAN, JAMES R. A.	Chief Executive Officer	Award / grant	Mar 2, 2026	18,757	$0.00	$0	Direct
BRANDLER HARRY	Director	Award / grant	Mar 2, 2026	3,665	$0.00	$0	Direct
OLSEN KATHLEEN	Director	Award / grant	Mar 2, 2026	2,715	$0.00	$0	Direct
DOLSON JED	President	Award / grant	Mar 2, 2026	14,068	$0.00	$0	Direct
MURPHY LILA A.	Director	Award / grant	Mar 2, 2026	3,801	$0.00	$0	Direct
PRESS RICHARD S	Director	Open-market sell	Mar 2, 2026	2,500	$72.02	$180K	Direct

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 8.4% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +71,237 sh

Price history

—

Loading…

Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

Premium view

AI summaries

Members get a plain-English 'what matters now' brief plus an explanation of why the price is moving, grounded in Prism's framework scores.

Premium view

Full framework decision report

See how Lynch, Buffett, Graham, Greenblatt, Fisher and more each score this stock — with every rule, threshold, and reason exposed.

Premium view

Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would GRBK do to your portfolio?

Add Green Brick Partners, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

GRBK is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (24/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Green Brick Partners, Inc. · GRBK

GRBK: 55% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families mixed (medium confidence). Strongest support: D/E 0.17. Main risk to monitor: 6% above fair value.

Outperform prob.

55%

vs S&P 500 · 12M

medium confidence

Expected return

-10.7% → +25.3%

mid +7.3% / yr

Downside (p20)

-22.2%

stress -44.4%

Data quality

90/100

Excellent

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 67/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality.

Composite

/ 100

Attractive

Deep valueval.

92/ 100

P/B 1.53×

Margin of safetyval.

54/ 100

6% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull

~20%

$78.41

+4.1% / yr (5y)

A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.

Drivers

• Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 18%
• Stranded asset value crystallises
• Multiple re-rates one full turn higher

Base

~45%

$60.32

-1.2% / yr (5y)

No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 18% operating margin and -8% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.

Global value comparison

Green Brick Partners, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

Metric	GRBK	GCC median	MENA median	Global ex-US
P/E (TTM)	—	17.5×	—	14.0×
P/B	1.53×	2.40×	—	2.00×
Dividend yield	—	2.40%	—	2.40%
ROE	—

Earnings reaction explainer

GRBK beat by 8.2%.

Beat· +8.2%

Reported EPS $1.39 vs $1.28 expected — a routine beat. Read the rest of the print (guidance, margins, segment mix) before assuming the multiple should expand. Trailing operating margin: 18.5%.

Quality investorsPositive
A routine beat with stable margins is the textbook compounder pattern — nothing changes in the thesis.
Value investorsNeutral
Whether the beat matters depends on entry multiple. P/E — sets the bar.
Growth investorsNeutral
Positive but unremarkable — guidance and KPI commentary will move the stock more than the beat itself.

What to watch on the next print

News & events

Next earnings

Wed, Jul 29 · consensus EPS $1.28 · last actual $1.39

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

1.15

P/B Ratio

1.53

EPS Growth

-16.8%

Revenue Growth

-8.4%

Debt / Equity

0.17

Net Cash / Share

$-4.04

Return on Equity

N/A

Gross Margin

29.8%

Operating Margin

18.5%

FCF / Share

N/A

Current Ratio

N/A