HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesValue
$432.36 · 15min delay
β 1.19A steady large-cap business trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $330.0052-wk high $556.52
Mkt Cap
$95.91B
P/E
—
PEG
1.31
P/B
-15.26
Dividend
0.73%
ROE
—
About the business
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, physician practices, home health agencies, hospices, outpatient physical therapy providers, home and community-based services providers, and various other facilities. Its general and acute care hospitals offer medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Who would buy HCA?
Consensus 20/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
2 5 8
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive80/100
P/B < 1.5 -15.26× clears "< 1.50×".
- Walter Schloss· Schloss Deep Value80/100
P/B < 1.0 (below book) -15.26× clears "< 1.00×".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Peter Lynch
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 60/100
5 insiders sold $29.3M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 201,867 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a cheap or stressed name is a more meaningful negative than on a compounder — the people closest to the business are not voting with their wallets. Weigh this against the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRIST THOMAS F III | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Award / grant | Apr 28, 2026 | 1,041 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JOHNSTON HUGH F. | Director | Award / grant | Apr 28, 2026 | 809 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FRIST WILLIAM R. | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Award / grant | Apr 28, 2026 | 809 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MICHELSON MICHAEL W | Director | Award / grant | Apr 28, 2026 | 925 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CHIDSEY JOHN W | Director | Award / grant | Apr 28, 2026 | 809 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEPARLE NANCY-ANN M. J.D. | Director | Award / grant | Apr 28, 2026 | 509 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RILEY WAYNE JOSEPH | Director | Award / grant | Apr 28, 2026 | 509 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH ANDREA B | Director | Award / grant | Apr 28, 2026 | 509 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCALEVEY MICHAEL R. | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 18, 2026 | 1,694 | $533.37 | $904K | Direct |
| MCALEVEY MICHAEL R. | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 13, 2026 | 5,000 | $236.61 | $1.18M | Direct |
| BERRES JENNIFER | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 11, 2026 | 8,020 | $514.58 | $4.13M | Direct |
| WYATT CHRISTOPHER F | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 11, 2026 | 4,000 | $505.00 | $2.02M | Direct |
| BERRES JENNIFER | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 7,116 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCALEVEY MICHAEL R. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 8,372 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MARKS MIKE A | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 5,026 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HAZEN SAMUEL N | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 54,934 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FOSTER JON MARK | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 15,696 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROSSITTO ERICA | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 1,676 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CUFFE MICHAEL S | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 9,628 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WYATT CHRISTOPHER F | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 10, 2026 | 3,350 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FOSTER JON MARK | Chief Operating Officer | Option exercise | Feb 5, 2026 | 29,330 | $139.06 | $4.08M | Direct |
| WYATT CHRISTOPHER F | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 5, 2026 | 10,670 | $139.06 | $1.48M | Direct |
| HAZEN SAMUEL N | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 3, 2026 | 42,877 | $501.04 | $21.48M | Direct |
| CUFFE MICHAEL S | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Feb 3, 2026 | 4,050 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CUFFE MICHAEL S | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 3, 2026 | 1,500 | $498.09 | $747K | Direct |
| HAZEN SAMUEL N | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Jan 30, 2026 | 84,360 | $81.96 | $6.91M | Direct |
| HAZEN SAMUEL N | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Nov 14, 2025 | 14,830 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 16.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +201,867 sh
Price history
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What would HCA do to your portfolio?
Add HCA Healthcare, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
HCA is currently tagged:ValueFails criteria (20/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
HCA Healthcare, Inc. · HCA
HCA: 52% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Main risk to monitor: 17% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
52%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-4.2% → +19.8%
mid +7.8% / yr
Downside (p20)
-14.3%
stress -28.6%
Data quality
93/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 61/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality.
Composite
61
/ 100
Deep valueval.
76/ 100
FCF yield 6.0%
Margin of safetyval.
43/ 100
17% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$478.48
+2.0% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 15%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$368.06
-3.2% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 15% operating margin and 4% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
HCA Healthcare, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | HCA | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 24.0× | — | 20.0× |
| P/B | -15.26× | 4.80× | — | 3.80× |
| Dividend yield | 0.73% | 1.40% | — | 1.80% |
| ROE | — |
Earnings reaction explainer
HCA missed by -3.2%.
Reported EPS $7.15 vs $7.39 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 15.0%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
News & events
Next earnings
Fri, Jul 24 · consensus EPS $7.39 · last actual $7.15
ACU-Serve Names Natasha Baria Mehta President to Lead Next Phase of Strategic Growth
ACCESS Newswire · just now
Mobile Heartbeat Celebrates Fourth Annual National Nurses Week Recognition Program Honoring Exceptional Nurses Across Leading Health Systems
Business Wire · just now
Was Cathie Wood Right About Alphabet (GOOGL)?
Insider Monkey · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.31
P/B Ratio
-15.26
EPS Growth
10.9%
Revenue Growth
4.3%
Debt / Equity
N/A
Net Cash / Share
$-219.89
Return on Equity
N/A
Gross Margin
41.6%
Operating Margin
15.0%
FCF / Share
$25.81
Current Ratio
0.83