HD
The Home Depot, Inc.Consumer CyclicalHome Improvement RetailIncome
$312.38 · 15min delay
β 1.00A high-quality mega-cap income stock trading at a premium valuation.
52-wk low $309.1152-wk high $426.75
Mkt Cap
$311.13B
P/E
—
PEG
2.90
P/B
24.28
Dividend
2.99%
ROE
145.5%
About the business
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, baths, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, and windows. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company serves consumers, such as do-it-yourself homeowners and do-it-for-me customers; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, small to medium homebuilders, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors and specialty tradespeople, such as electricians, landscapers, plumbers, painters, pool contractors, and roofers. It sells its products through websites and its mobile applications, including homedepot.com; homedepot.ca and homedepot.com.mx; blinds.com, justblinds.com, and americanblinds.com for custom window coverings; thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products; hdsupply.com for maintenance, repair, and operations products and related services; and srsdistribution.com, heritagelandscapesupplygroup.com, and heritagepoolsupplygroup.com for roofing and building materials, landscape, and pool products; and The Home Depot stores. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Who would buy HD?
Consensus 8/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
0 4 11
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula75/100
ROE > 20% 145.5% clears "> 20.0%".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income75/100
Dividend Yield > 2% 3.0% clears "> 2.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Peter Lynch
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 60/100
5 insiders sold $3.4M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 63,788 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCPHAIL RICHARD V | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 3,969 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEATON JOHN A. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 2,467 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BASTEK WILLIAM D | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 3,518 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BROGGI JORDAN | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 3,022 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROWE MICHAEL F | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 2,255 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BROWN ANGIE | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 2,255 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH STEPHANIE | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 2,345 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 2,440 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DECKER EDWARD P. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 11,548 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SCARDINO KIMBERLY R. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 902 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CAMPBELL ANN-MARIE | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 25, 2026 | 4,691 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCPHAIL RICHARD V | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 4, 2026 | 2,550 | $368.89 | $941K | Direct |
| DEATON JOHN A. | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 4, 2026 | 1,793 | $369.00 | $662K | Direct |
| MCPHAIL RICHARD V | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 3,878 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEATON JOHN A. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 2,552 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BASTEK WILLIAM D | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 1,126 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BROGGI JORDAN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 928 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROWE MICHAEL F | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 729 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BROWN ANGIE | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 795 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH STEPHANIE | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 895 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 2,519 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DECKER EDWARD P. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 13,992 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SCARDINO KIMBERLY R. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 874 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CAMPBELL ANN-MARIE | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 3,878 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Dec 26, 2025 | 2,872 | $348.52 | $1.00M | Direct |
| BROWN ANGIE | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 12, 2025 | 1,946 | $357.63 | $696K | Direct |
| BROWN ANGIE | Chief Technology Officer | Option exercise | Dec 12, 2025 | 1,516 | $260.26 | $395K | Direct |
| CAMPBELL ANN-MARIE | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 11, 2025 | 145 | $358.26 | $52K | Indirect |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +63,788 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.
What would HD do to your portfolio?
Add The Home Depot, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
HD is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (8/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
The Home Depot, Inc. · HD
HD: 45% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Main risk to monitor: 11% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
45%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-5.6% → +18.4%
mid +6.4% / yr
Downside (p20)
-12.0%
stress -24.0%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 44/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation.
Composite
44
/ 100
Deep valueval.
28/ 100
P/B 24.28× · FCF yield 2.8%
Margin of safetyval.
49/ 100
11% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$366.18
+3.2% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 10%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$281.67
-2.0% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 10% operating margin holds, -4% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
The Home Depot, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | HD | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 24.28× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | 2.99% | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | 145.5% |
Earnings reaction explainer
HD missed materially — -20.3% below consensus.
Reported EPS $2.72 vs $3.41 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 10.1%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Tue, May 19 · consensus EPS $3.41 · last actual $2.72
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.90
P/B Ratio
24.28
EPS Growth
-14.2%
Revenue Growth
-3.8%
Debt / Equity
5.14
Net Cash / Share
$-64.78
Return on Equity
145.5%
Gross Margin
33.3%
Operating Margin
10.1%
FCF / Share
$8.66
Current Ratio
1.06