HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.Consumer CyclicalLodgingQuality
$314.73 · 15min delay
β 1.07A steady large-cap compounder trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $241.4552-wk high $344.75
Mkt Cap
$71.65B
P/E
—
PEG
1.57
P/B
-12.17
Dividend
0.19%
ROE
—
About the business
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Who would buy HLT?
Consensus 43/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
6 5 4
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100
Operating Margin > 20% 57.4% clears "> 20.0%".
- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
Operating Margin > 15% 57.4% clears "> 15.0%".
- AQR / Asness· Quality Factor100/100
Gross Margin > 35% 78.5% clears "> 35.0%".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 40/100
1 insiders sold $36.3M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 171,188 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAYER MARISSA A | Director | Award / grant | May 1, 2026 | 115 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GRAY JONATHAN D. | Director | Award / grant | May 1, 2026 | 104 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH ELIZABETH A | Director | Award / grant | May 1, 2026 | 145 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STEENLAND DOUGLAS M | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 9 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MAYER MARISSA A | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 0 | — | $0 | Direct |
| GRAY JONATHAN D. | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 4 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BEGLEY CHARLENE T | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 6 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH ELIZABETH A | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 9 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MABUS RAYMOND E JR | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 6 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HEALEY MELANIE L | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 6 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CARR CHRIS | Director | Award / grant | Mar 31, 2026 | 3 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 105,845 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JACOBS KEVIN J | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 31,602 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SILCOCK CHRISTOPHER W | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 17,570 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FUENTES LAURA | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 10,964 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOYLAN MISHA | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 292 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KRASS CAROLINE | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 2,229 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CHARNAUX CHRISTIAN H. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 2,229 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 114,289 | $317.47 | $36.28M | Direct |
| NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Feb 17, 2026 | 114,289 | $41.41 | $4.73M | Direct |
| STEENLAND DOUGLAS M | Director | Award / grant | Dec 29, 2025 | 9 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MAYER MARISSA A | Director | Award / grant | Dec 29, 2025 | 0 | — | $0 | Direct |
| GRAY JONATHAN D. | Director | Award / grant | Dec 29, 2025 | 4 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BEGLEY CHARLENE T | Director | Award / grant | Dec 29, 2025 | 6 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SMITH ELIZABETH A | Director | Award / grant | Dec 29, 2025 | 9 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MABUS RAYMOND E JR | Director | Award / grant | Dec 29, 2025 | 6 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HEALEY MELANIE L | Director | Award / grant | Dec 29, 2025 | 7 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CARR CHRIS | Director | Award / grant | Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 2.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +171,188 sh
Price history
—
Loading…
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would HLT do to your portfolio?
Add Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
HLT is currently tagged:QualityWeak match (43/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. · HLT
HLT: 50% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: Op margin 57%. Main risk to monitor: 130% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
50%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-4.5% → +19.5%
mid +7.5% / yr
Downside (p20)
-12.8%
stress -25.6%
Data quality
93/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 57/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation.
Composite
57
/ 100
Deep valueval.
54/ 100
FCF yield 2.4%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
130% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$177.97
-10.8% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 57%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$136.90
-15.3% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 57% operating margin and 11% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | HLT | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | -12.17× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | 0.19% | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | — |
Earnings reaction explainer
HLT missed materially — -10.8% below consensus.
Reported EPS $2.01 vs $2.25 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 57.4%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 29 · consensus EPS $2.25 · last actual $2.01
Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on Hilton Worldwide to $319 From $318, Maintains Overweight Rating
MT Newswires · just now
At US$322, Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) Worth Looking At Closely?
Simply Wall St. · just now
Hilton Announces Pricing of Senior Notes Offering
Business Wire · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.57
P/B Ratio
-12.17
EPS Growth
35.0%
Revenue Growth
11.0%
Debt / Equity
N/A
Net Cash / Share
$-54.88
Return on Equity
N/A
Gross Margin
78.5%
Operating Margin
57.4%
FCF / Share
$7.40
Current Ratio
0.61