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HUM logo

HUM

Humana Inc.
HealthcareHealthcare PlansMomentum
$280.41 · 15min delay
β 0.68

A steady large-cap momentum story trading near fair value.

Download report

52-wk low $163.1152-wk high $315.35

Mkt Cap

$33.67B

P/E

—

PEG

1.56

P/B

1.92

Dividend

1.29%

ROE

6.3%

About the business

Humana Inc. provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment offers individual Medicare Advantage products, including health insurance benefits, including wellness programs, chronic care management, and care coordination; individual Medicare stand-alone prescription drug products (PDP); group Medicare advantage and Medicare stand-alone PDP; Medicare supplements; specialty and ancillary insurance comprising dental, vision, life and disability; and administrative services to arrange health care services for active-duty and retired military personnel and dependents, as well as pharmacy benefit managers. Its CenterWell segment operates full-service, value-based senior focused primary care centers under the Conviva Senior Primary Care and CenterWell Senior Primary Care brands; a management services organization; CenterWell Home Health, a home health provider; and OneHome, which manages post-acute patient needs, as well as provides pharmacy and hospice solutions. The company was formerly known as Extendicare Inc. and changed its name to Humana Inc. in April 1974. Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

Who would buy HUM?

Consensus 8/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

0 6 9

Endorses

· 1 framework
  • William O'Neil· Momentum / CAN SLIM63/100

    Within 15% of 52-wk high -11.1% clears "> -15.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100

    ROE > 20% is 6.3% — fails "> 20.0%".

  • Fama / French
Insider activity · Mixed

Open-market buying concentrated in one insider

Strength 45/100

Buying is limited to a single filer (SHETTY SANJAY K, $150K). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite.

  • Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.

In Prism's context

Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 8/100) and the archetype read (Momentum).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
O'HARA MICHELLE A.OfficerAward / grantMay 1, 202610,485$0.00$0Direct
SHETTY SANJAY KOfficerAward / grantMay 1, 20269,945$0.00$0Direct
RECHTIN JAMES A.Chief Executive OfficerAward / grantMay 1, 202635,633$0.00$0Indirect
DINTENFASS DAVIDOfficerAward / grantMay 1, 202611,273$0.00$0Direct
MEHTA JAPANChief Technology OfficerAward / grantMay 1, 20269,448$0.00$0Direct
MELLET CELESTEChief Financial OfficerAward / grantMay 1, 202615,387$0.00$0Direct
MARTIN AARONOfficerAward / grantMay 1, 20268,206$0.00$0Direct
FIELD ROBERT STUARTDirectorAward / grantMay 1, 2026852$0.00$0Direct
VENTURA JOSEPH CHRISTOPHEROfficerAward / grantMay 1, 202610,318$0.00$0Direct
SHETTY SANJAY KOfficerTransactionApr 1, 2026887——Direct
FELTER JOHN- PAUL W.OfficerTransactionFeb 24, 2026165——Direct
RENAUDIN GEORGE IIOfficerTransactionFeb 24, 20261,035——Direct
VENTURA JOSEPH CHRISTOPHEROfficerTransactionFeb 24, 20261,035——Direct
FELTER JOHN- PAUL W.OfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20265,669$0.00$0Direct
SHETTY SANJAY KOfficerOpen-market buyFeb 23, 2026810$185.20$150KDirect
DINTENFASS DAVIDOfficerTransactionFeb 20, 20263,858——Direct
MEHTA JAPANChief Technology OfficerTransactionFeb 13, 20261,682——Direct
MELLET CELESTEChief Financial OfficerTransactionFeb 13, 20267,763——Direct
MARTIN AARONOfficerAward / grantFeb 12, 202617,031$0.00$0Direct
RECHTIN JAMES A.Chief Executive OfficerTransactionJan 8, 20262,183——Indirect
MESQUITA JORGE SDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026766$0.00$0Indirect
FEINBERG DAVID TDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026766$0.00$0Direct
O'HARA MICHELLE A.OfficerTransactionDec 31, 20252,353——Direct
O'HARA MICHELLE A.OfficerTransactionDec 15, 20251,401——Direct
FELTER JOHN- PAUL W.OfficerTransactionDec 15, 2025570——Direct
RENAUDIN GEORGE IIOfficerTransactionDec 15, 20252,466——Direct
SHETTY SANJAY KOfficerTransactionDec 15, 20252,276——Direct
RECHTIN JAMES A.Chief Executive OfficerTransactionDec 15, 20257,707——Indirect
DINTENFASS DAVIDOfficerTransactionDec 15, 20252,032——Direct
MEHTA JAPANChief Technology OfficerTransactionDec 15, 20251,194——Direct
MELLET CELESTEChief Financial OfficerTransactionDec 15, 20252,128——Direct
VENTURA JOSEPH CHRISTOPHEROfficerTransactionDec 15, 20252,406——Direct

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +0 sh

Price history

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AI summaries

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Full framework decision report

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

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What would HUM do to your portfolio?

Add Humana Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

HUM is currently tagged:MomentumFails criteria (8/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Humana Inc. · HUM

HUM: 46% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: CR 1.77. Main risk to monitor: 71% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
46%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-11.1% → +24.9%
mid +6.9% / yr
Downside (p20)
-10.2%
stress -20.4%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 45/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.

Composite
45
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
76/ 100

P/B 1.92× · FCF yield 4.3%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

71% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~20%
$213.03
-5.3% / yr (5y)

A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 5%
  • • Stranded asset value crystallises
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%
$163.87
-10.2% / yr (5y)

No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 5% operating margin and 24% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.

Global value comparison

Humana Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricHUMGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—24.0×—20.0×
P/B1.92×4.80×—3.80×
Dividend yield1.29%1.40%—1.80%
ROE6.3%
Earnings reaction explainer

HUM blew past estimates by 58.4%.

Big beat· +58.4%

Reported EPS $10.31 vs $6.51 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 4.7%.

  • Growth investorsPositive

    Confirms operating leverage — -5% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.

  • Quality investorsPositive

    If ROE (6%) and operating margin (5%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.

  • Value investorsNegative

    Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.

News & events

Next earnings

Wed, Jul 29 · consensus EPS $6.51 · last actual $10.31

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Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

1.56

P/B Ratio

1.92

EPS Growth

-4.6%

Revenue Growth

23.5%

Debt / Equity

0.77

Net Cash / Share

$63.25

Return on Equity

6.3%

Gross Margin

14.0%

Operating Margin

4.7%

FCF / Share

$11.92

Current Ratio

1.77

· Pure Value Factor
0/100

P/B < 1.5 is 1.92× — fails "< 1.50×".

  • Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality11/100

    ROE > 15% is 6.3% — fails "> 15.0%".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    45/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 1 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationnegative

      Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

      71% above fair valueReverse DCF: low expectations bar
      35
      /100
    • Qualitynegative

      Returns are sub-cost-of-capital; quality bar not met.

      Op margin 5% (thin)
      36
      /100
    • Balance sheetpositive

      Capital structure is unremarkable — neither a stress nor a tailwind.

      CR 1.77Net cash position
      64
      /100
    • Momentumneutral

      Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.

      77% through 52w range
      55
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      Insider buying ($1.6M)
      58
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsneutral

      Mixed catalyst picture.

      Big EPS beat (+58%)1 medium-severity flag
      56
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • CR 1.77
    • • Net cash position
    Key risks
    • • 71% above fair value
    • • Reverse DCF: low expectations bar
    • • Op margin 5% (thin)
    • • Operating leverage appears to have reversed
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Operating-margin trend
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 95 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 48% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.9% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    15/ 100

    ROE 6% · Op margin 5%

    Balance sheet15%
    78/ 100

    D/E 0.77 · CR 1.77

    Insider convictionown.
    58/ 100

    2 insiders buying

    Superinvestorown.
    35/ 100

    No tracked superinvestor holds it

    Shareholder yield10%
    68/ 100

    1.29% yield + buyback runway

    Momentum5%
    82/ 100

    77% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    63/ 100

    EPS -5% · Rev 24%

    Risk deduction: 1 pattern flagged · operating leverage appears to have reversed. 2 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near 24%
    • • Operating margin stays around 5%
    • • No major balance-sheet surprises
    Bear
    ~35%
    $122.90
    -15.2% / yr (5y)

    Already-thin margins compress further on input-cost or pricing pressure; revenue softens; the market questions whether the current earnings power is structural or one-off. Multi-year drawdown plausible.

    Drivers
    • • Operating margin compresses 200–400 bps
    • • Multiple compresses as estimates roll back
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    16.0%
    —
    15.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Whether margin expansion sustains into next quarter
    • • Forward guidance update — beats without raises tend to fade
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  • Institutional Own.

    103.5%

    Insider Own.

    0.2%

    Dividend Yield

    1.29%

    Book Value / Share

    $146.42