IBM
International Business Machines CorporationTechnologyInformation Technology ServicesIncome
$220.58 · 15min delay
β 0.58A high-quality mega-cap income stock trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $220.3352-wk high $324.90
Mkt Cap
$207.32B
P/E
—
PEG
2.15
P/B
6.29
Dividend
3.02%
ROE
35.8%
About the business
International Business Machines Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated solutions and services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing segments. The Software segment offers hybrid cloud and AI platforms that allow clients to realize their digital and AI transformations across the applications, data, and environments in which they operate. The Consulting segment delivers strategy and technology services and intelligent operations, providing business transformation, technology implementation, managed services, application modernization, and AI-powered solutions. The Infrastructure segment provides on-premises and cloud-based server, and storage solutions, as well as life-cycle services for hybrid cloud infrastructure deployment. Its Financing segment offers client and commercial financing, and facilitates IBM clients' acquisition of hardware, software, and services. It has strategic partnerships with various companies, including hyperscalers, service providers, global system integrators, and software and hardware vendors that include Adobe, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, and others. Additionally, the company operate a data streaming platform. The company has a strategic collaboration with Arm Holdings plc for the development of new dual-architecture hardware that helps enterprises run future AI and data intensive workloads. The company was formerly known as Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. International Business Machines Corporation was incorporated in 1911 and is headquartered in Armonk, New York.
Who would buy IBM?
Consensus 16/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
0 7 8
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula75/100
ROE > 20% 35.8% clears "> 20.0%".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income75/100
Dividend Yield > 2% 3.0% clears "> 2.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Peter Lynch
Insider activity · Positive
3 insiders bought shares in the open market
Strength 95/100
Over the last ~6 months 3 different insiders made open-market purchases totalling $417K. Multi-insider open-market buying is one of the more durable positive signals because it reflects fresh-dollar conviction rather than vesting or diversification.
In Prism's context
Insider buying adds modest supporting evidence alongside the framework read (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOWARD MICHELLE J. | Director | Open-market buy | Feb 25, 2026 | 50 | $237.82 | $12K | Direct |
| MIEBACH MICHAEL | Director | Open-market buy | Feb 25, 2026 | 434 | $233.33 | $101K | Direct |
| COHN GARY D | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 7,582 | — | — | Direct |
| KRISHNA ARVIND | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 16,903 | — | — | Direct |
| LAMOREAUX NICKLE JACLYN | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 4,391 | — | — | Direct |
| FEHRING NICOLAS A. | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 1,568 | — | — | Direct |
| THOMAS ROBERT DAVID | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 8,414 | — | — | Direct |
| KAVANAUGH JAMES J. | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 9,832 | — | — | Direct |
| COHN GARY D | Officer | Transaction | Feb 18, 2026 | 2,322 | — | — | Direct |
| KRISHNA ARVIND | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Feb 18, 2026 | 5,664 | — | — | Direct |
| LAMOREAUX NICKLE JACLYN | Officer | Transaction | Feb 18, 2026 | 1,586 | — | — | Direct |
| FEHRING NICOLAS A. | Officer | Transaction | Feb 18, 2026 | 696 | — | — | Direct |
| THOMAS ROBERT DAVID | Officer | Transaction | Feb 18, 2026 | 2,549 | — | — | Direct |
| ROBINSON ANNE | Officer | Transaction | Feb 18, 2026 | 1,722 | — | — | Direct |
| KAVANAUGH JAMES J. | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Feb 18, 2026 | 2,719 | — | — | Direct |
| FARR DAVID N | Director | Open-market buy | Jan 30, 2026 | 1,000 | $304.00 | $304K | Direct |
| COHN GARY D | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 35,410 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KRISHNA ARVIND | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 83,028 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LAMOREAUX NICKLE JACLYN | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 23,566 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FEHRING NICOLAS A. | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 4,070 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| THOMAS ROBERT DAVID | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 42,247 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROBINSON ANNE | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 6,318 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KAVANAUGH JAMES J. | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 48,474 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FEHRING NICOLAS A. | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Nov 14, 2025 | 350 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.
What would IBM do to your portfolio?
Add International Business Machines Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
IBM is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (16/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
International Business Machines Corporation · IBM
IBM: 51% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: Reverse DCF: low expectations bar. Main risk to monitor: D/E 2.11 (heavy).
Outperform prob.
51%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-1.2% → +22.8%
mid +10.8% / yr
Downside (p20)
-9.0%
stress -17.9%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 59/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from ownership. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
59
/ 100
Deep valueval.
56/ 100
P/B 6.29× · FCF yield 6.3%
Margin of safetyval.
57/ 100
3% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$278.12
+4.7% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 14%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$213.94
-0.6% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 14% operating margin holds, 10% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
International Business Machines Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Technology. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | IBM | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 22.0× | — | 23.0× |
| P/B | 6.29× | 4.00× | — | 4.50× |
| Dividend yield | 3.02% | 1.00% | — | 1.40% |
| ROE | 35.8% |
Earnings reaction explainer
IBM missed materially — -37.0% below consensus.
Reported EPS $1.91 vs $3.03 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 13.8%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 22 · consensus EPS $3.03 · last actual $1.91
IBM Announces Red Hat AI Inference and Red Hat OpenShift Virtualization Service on IBM Cloud
PR Newswire · just now
International Business Machines Launches New AI, Virtualization Services on Cloud
MT Newswires · just now
Age of Learning Strengthens Executive Team to Bring ABCmouse to More Families Worldwide
PR Newswire · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.15
P/B Ratio
6.29
EPS Growth
14.2%
Revenue Growth
9.5%
Debt / Equity
2.11
Net Cash / Share
$-61.73
Return on Equity
35.8%
Gross Margin
58.4%
Operating Margin
13.8%
FCF / Share
$13.92
Current Ratio
0.80