JD
JD.com, Inc.Consumer CyclicalInternet RetailGrowth at a Reasonable Price
$31.19 · 15min delay
β 0.40A steady large-cap growth-at-a-reasonable-price pick trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $24.5152-wk high $38.08
Mkt Cap
$42.60B
P/E
—
PEG
0.99
P/B
1.29
Dividend
3.28%
ROE
7.6%
About the business
JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Who would buy JD?
Consensus 22/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
2 5 8
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP83/100
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) 0.99× clears "< 1.00×".
- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive83/100
P/B < 1.5 1.29× clears "< 1.50×".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt
Insider activity · Mixed
Insider activity is mixed
Strength 30/100
Prism sees a mix of buys, sells, and option activity over the last 6 months. The pattern is neither a clear positive nor a clear negative.
- Data is partial — fewer than 5 reported transactions.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 22/100) and the archetype read (Growth at a Reasonable Price).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XU RAN | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 44,510 | — | — | Direct |
| ZHANG PANG | Officer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 28,861 | — | — | Direct |
| SHAN SU | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Apr 1, 2026 | 11,250 | — | — | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.0% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A notable drawdown — worth re-reading the framework verdicts below with the cheaper price in mind.
What would JD do to your portfolio?
Add JD.com, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
JD is currently tagged:Growth at a Reasonable PriceFails criteria (22/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
JD.com, Inc. · JD
JD: 43% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: D/E 0.36. Main risk to monitor: 32% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
43%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-12.1% → +23.9%
mid +5.9% / yr
Downside (p20)
-9.8%
stress -19.7%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 40/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.
Composite
40
/ 100
Deep valueval.
47/ 100
P/B 1.29× · FCF yield -24.5%
Margin of safetyval.
28/ 100
32% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$30.63
-0.4% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from -1%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$23.56
-5.5% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. -1% operating margin and 2% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
JD.com, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | JD | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 1.29× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | 3.28% | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | 7.6% |
Earnings reaction explainer
JD missed by -7.9%.
Reported EPS $5.12 vs $5.56 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: -1.3%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
News & events
Next earnings
Tue, May 12 · consensus EPS $5.56 · last actual $5.12
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.99
P/B Ratio
1.29
EPS Growth
N/A
Revenue Growth
1.5%
Debt / Equity
0.36
Net Cash / Share
$88.08
Return on Equity
7.6%
Gross Margin
9.3%
Operating Margin
-1.3%
FCF / Share
$-8.66
Current Ratio
1.22