JNJ
Johnson & JohnsonHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralIncome
$226.74 · 15min delay
β 0.26A high-quality mega-cap income stock trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $146.1252-wk high $251.71
Mkt Cap
$545.81B
P/E
—
PEG
2.88
P/B
6.72
Dividend
2.42%
ROE
26.4%
About the business
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics. This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; intraocular lenses for cataract surgery, and other products used in cataract and refractive procedures under the TECNIS brand. The company was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.
Who would buy JNJ?
Consensus 25/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
2 5 8
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income88/100
Dividend Yield > 2% 2.4% clears "> 2.0%".
- AQR / Asness· Quality Factor86/100
ROE > 20% 26.4% clears "> 20.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksInsider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 35/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (MORIKIS JOHN G, $258K). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 192,688 shares.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 25/100) and the archetype read (Income).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REED JOHN C | Officer | Transaction | May 1, 2026 | 25,255 | — | — | Direct |
| DECKER ROBERT J | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 27, 2026 | 4,075 | $247.87 | $1.01M | Direct |
| DECKER ROBERT J | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 27, 2026 | 4,075 | $115.67 | $471K | Direct |
| SCHMID TIMOTHY | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 20, 2026 | 1,322 | $245.66 | $325K | Direct |
| SCHMID TIMOTHY | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 18, 2026 | 22,623 | $244.33 | $5.53M | Direct |
| SCHMID TIMOTHY | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 18, 2026 | 29,554 | $92.76 | $2.74M | Direct |
| WOLK JOSEPH J | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 89,654 | $242.80 | $21.77M | Direct |
| WOLK JOSEPH J | Chief Financial Officer | Option exercise | Feb 17, 2026 | 107,784 | $76.02 | $8.19M | Direct |
| SWANSON JAMES D | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 62,080 | $243.39 | $15.11M | Direct |
| SWANSON JAMES D | Chief Technology Officer | Option exercise | Feb 17, 2026 | 73,140 | $139.50 | $10.20M | Direct |
| BROADHURST VANESSA | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 6,197 | $243.39 | $1.51M | Direct |
| REED JOHN C | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 53,931 | $243.00 | $13.11M | Direct |
| REED JOHN C | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 17, 2026 | 54,844 | $147.75 | $8.10M | Direct |
| DECKER ROBERT J | Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 3,736 | — | — | Direct |
| BROADHURST VANESSA | Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 10,020 | — | — | Direct |
| FORMINARD ELIZABETH | Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 16,381 | — | — | Direct |
| MULHOLLAND KRISTEN | Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 5,006 | — | — | Direct |
| DUATO JOAQUIN BOIX | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 84,710 | — | — | Direct |
| WENGEL KATHRYN E | Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 15,598 | — | — | Direct |
| TAUBERT JENNIFER L | Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 32,155 | — | — | Direct |
| SCHMID TIMOTHY | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 6, 2026 | 15,571 | $101.87 | $1.59M | Direct |
| MULHOLLAND KRISTEN | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 6, 2026 | 5,625 | $101.87 | $573K | Direct |
| WENGEL KATHRYN E | Chief Technology Officer | Option exercise | Feb 6, 2026 | 38,945 | $101.87 | $3.97M | Direct |
| FORMINARD ELIZABETH | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 5, 2026 | 8,921 | $129.51 | $1.16M | Direct |
| DUATO JOAQUIN BOIX | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 26, 2026 | 100,000 | $221.23 | $22.12M | Indirect |
| MORIKIS JOHN G | Director | Open-market buy | Nov 26, 2025 | 1,250 | $206.15 | $258K | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +192,688 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would JNJ do to your portfolio?
Add Johnson & Johnson at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
JNJ is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (25/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Johnson & Johnson · JNJ
JNJ: 45% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: ROE 26%. Main risk to monitor: 79% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
45%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-6.2% → +17.8%
mid +5.8% / yr
Downside (p20)
-10.2%
stress -20.3%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 47/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 6 points off the composite.
Composite
47
/ 100
Deep valueval.
42/ 100
P/B 6.72× · FCF yield 2.3%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
79% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$164.25
-6.2% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 27%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$126.35
-11.0% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 27% operating margin holds, 10% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Johnson & Johnson vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | JNJ | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 24.0× | — | 20.0× |
| P/B | 6.72× | 4.80× | — | 3.80× |
| Dividend yield | 2.42% | 1.40% | — | 1.80% |
| ROE | 26.4% |
Earnings reaction explainer
JNJ missed by -4.9%.
Reported EPS $2.70 vs $2.84 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 27.4%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Already cheap; the question is whether the deterioration is cyclical (digestible) or structural (avoid).
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 15 · consensus EPS $2.84 · last actual $2.70
Assessing Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Valuation After Recent Pullback And Conflicting Fair Value Signals
Simply Wall St. · just now
Johnson & Johnson Advances the Standard of Calcium Modification with Global Launch of Shockwave™ C2 Aero Coronary IVL Catheter
Business Wire · just now
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Highlights Strong Phase 3 Results for TREMFYA Across Dosing Regimens
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.88
P/B Ratio
6.72
EPS Growth
-52.9%
Revenue Growth
9.9%
Debt / Equity
0.68
Net Cash / Share
$-13.68
Return on Equity
26.4%
Gross Margin
68.0%
Operating Margin
27.4%
FCF / Share
$5.20
Current Ratio
1.02