JOE
The St. Joe CompanyReal EstateReal Estate - DiversifiedIncome
$64.89 · 15min delay
β 1.31A high-quality mid-cap income stock trading near fair value.
52-wk low $42.6552-wk high $73.54
Mkt Cap
$3.73B
P/E
—
PEG
-23.47
P/B
4.87
Dividend
0.98%
ROE
14.9%
About the business
The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. The Residential segment engages in the development of communities into homesites for sale to homebuilders and on a limited basis to retail customers. This segment primarily sells developed homesites, completed homes, parcels of entitled or undeveloped land or homesites, and a homesite residual on homebuilder, as well as offers marketing services. Its Hospitality segment owns and operates a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, marinas, and other entertainment assets. This segment also engages in the hotel, food and beverage, and gulf-front vacation rental operations, as well as provides management services. The Commercial segment engages in leasing of commercial property, multi-family, a senior living community, and other assets. This segment also involved in the planning, development, entitlement, management, and sale of commercial and rural land holdings for retail, office, hotel, senior living, multi-family, self-storage, and industrial uses; and grows and sells pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products, as well as operates real estate brokerage, title insurance agency and insurance agency business. The St. Joe Company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Panama City Beach, Florida.
Who would buy JOE?
Consensus 9/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
0 6 9
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive67/100
Current Ratio > 2 4.20 clears "> 2.00".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income63/100
Payout Ratio < 70% 31.1% clears "< 70.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksInsider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 40/100
1 insiders sold $41.6M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net sellers by 608,403 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BERKOWITZ BRUCE R | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market sell | May 7, 2026 | 377,800 | $65.75 | $24.84M | Indirect |
| BERKOWITZ BRUCE R | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market sell | Mar 17, 2026 | 21,100 | $72.22 | $1.52M | Indirect |
| BERKOWITZ BRUCE R | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market sell | Mar 4, 2026 | 1,400 | $73.50 | $103K | Indirect |
| BERKOWITZ BRUCE R | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market sell | Mar 3, 2026 | 39,000 | $72.37 | $2.82M | Indirect |
| GOFF RHEA | Officer and Director | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 2,494 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BAKUN MAREK | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 3,702 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GONZALEZ JORGE LUIS | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 11,126 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WALTERS ELIZABETH J | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 3,075 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BERKOWITZ BRUCE R | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market sell | Feb 20, 2026 | 16,000 | $71.22 | $1.14M | Indirect |
| BERKOWITZ BRUCE R | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market sell | Jan 16, 2026 | 101,600 | $65.51 | $6.66M | Indirect |
| BERKOWITZ BRUCE R | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market sell | Dec 17, 2025 | 71,900 | $62.32 | $4.48M | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.4% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: -608,403 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would JOE do to your portfolio?
Add The St. Joe Company at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
JOE is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (9/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
The St. Joe Company · JOE
JOE: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 0 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Main risk to monitor: 162% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
48%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-13.2% → +22.8%
mid +4.8% / yr
Downside (p20)
-17.7%
stress -35.3%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 49/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
49
/ 100
Deep valueval.
55/ 100
P/B 4.87× · FCF yield 3.1%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
162% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$32.19
-13.1% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 18%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$24.76
-17.5% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 18% operating margin and 5% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
The St. Joe Company vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Real Estate. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | JOE | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 9.8× | — | 19.0× |
| P/B | 4.87× | 0.90× | — | 1.40× |
| Dividend yield | 0.98% | 4.00% | — | 4.20% |
| ROE | 14.9% |
Earnings reaction explainer
JOE reported earnings; consensus comparison unavailable.
Actual EPS came in at $-0.02, but no consensus estimate was available for comparison. The print should be judged against the company's own historicals.
- All audiencesNeutral
Without consensus, judge the print against the company's own trailing trend. Look for sequential acceleration / deceleration in revenue and margin.
What to watch on the next print
- • Next reporting date and whether estimates re-anchor
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 22 · last actual $-0.02
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
-23.47
P/B Ratio
4.87
EPS Growth
-19.9%
Revenue Growth
5.1%
Debt / Equity
0.73
Net Cash / Share
$-7.41
Return on Equity
14.9%
Gross Margin
43.1%
Operating Margin
18.4%
FCF / Share
$1.99
Current Ratio
4.20