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LLY logo

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company
HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralMomentum
$993.73 · 15min delay
β 0.48

A high-quality mega-cap momentum story trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

Download report

52-wk low $623.7852-wk high $1133.95

Mkt Cap

$886.15B

P/E

—

PEG

1.28

P/B

28.46

Dividend

0.72%

ROE

107.5%

About the business

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Who would buy LLY?

Consensus 27/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.

2 5 8

Endorses

· 2 frameworks
  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100

    ROE > 20% 107.5% clears "> 20.0%".

  • William O'Neil· Momentum / CAN SLIM100/100

    Within 15% of 52-wk high -12.4% clears "> -15.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 40/100

1 insiders sold $346.7M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net sellers by 1,357,506 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of SecurityOpen-market sellMay 6, 202615,828$995.36$15.75MDirect
FYRWALD J. ERIKDirectorAward / grantApr 20, 202610$991.70$10KDirect
LUCIANO JUAN RDirectorAward / grantApr 20, 202617$936.29$16KDirect
SULZBERGER GABRIELLEDirectorAward / grantApr 20, 20265$991.60$5KDirect
ALVAREZ RALPHDirectorAward / grantApr 20, 202613$955.15$12KDirect
FYRWALD J. ERIKDirectorAward / grantMar 16, 202610$991.70$10KDirect
LUCIANO JUAN RDirectorAward / grantMar 16, 202616$994.81$16KDirect
SULZBERGER GABRIELLEDirectorAward / grantMar 16, 20265$991.60$5KDirect
ALVAREZ RALPHDirectorAward / grantMar 16, 202612$1034.67$12KDirect
DOZIER ERICOfficerStock Gift at price 0.00 per share.Feb 19, 2026481$0.00$0Direct
FYRWALD J. ERIKDirectorAward / grantFeb 17, 20269$1101.89$10KDirect
LUCIANO JUAN RDirectorAward / grantFeb 17, 202615$1061.13$16KDirect
SULZBERGER GABRIELLEDirectorAward / grantFeb 17, 20264$1239.75$5KDirect
ALVAREZ RALPHDirectorAward / grantFeb 17, 202611$1128.82$12KDirect
CUSTER KENNETH LOfficerTransactionFeb 13, 2026207——Direct
BROWN ADRIANE SOfficerTransactionFeb 13, 2026391——Direct
ZAKROWSKI DONALD AChief Financial OfficerTransactionFeb 13, 2026184——Direct
MONTARCE LUCAS EChief Financial OfficerTransactionFeb 13, 2026368——Direct
HERNANDEZ EDGARDOOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20264,383$1044.84$4.58MDirect
RAU DIOGOChief Technology OfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20264,432$1044.75$4.63MDirect
RAU DIOGOOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20264,599$1044.71$4.80MDirect
DOZIER ERICOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20263,512$1044.76$3.67MDirect
CUSTER KENNETH LOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 2026659$1045.11$689KDirect
BROWN ADRIANE SOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20261,196$1044.94$1.25MDirect
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.OfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20264,865$1044.86$5.08MDirect
HAKIM ANATGeneral CounselAward / grantFeb 9, 20268,277$1044.79$8.65MDirect
RICKS DAVID AChief Executive OfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 202638,913$1044.69$40.65MDirect
ZAKROWSKI DONALD AOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 2026583$1046.08$610KDirect
SKOVRONSKY DANIELOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 202615,547$1044.73$16.24MDirect
MONTARCE LUCAS EChief Financial OfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20261,365$1045.03$1.43MDirect
JONSSON PATRIKOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20264,818$1044.68$5.03MDirect
YUFFA ILYAOfficerAward / grantFeb 9, 20264,162$1044.80$4.35MDirect
HERNANDEZ EDGARDOOfficerTransactionJan 30, 20263,572——Direct
RAU DIOGOOfficerTransactionJan 30, 20263,752——Direct
DOZIER ERICOfficerTransactionJan 30, 20262,858——Direct
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.OfficerTransactionJan 30, 20264,108——Direct
HAKIM ANATGeneral CounselTransactionJan 30, 20266,700——Direct
RICKS DAVID AChief Executive OfficerTransactionJan 30, 202631,932——Direct
SKOVRONSKY DANIELOfficerTransactionJan 30, 202612,684——Direct
JONSSON PATRIKOfficerTransactionJan 30, 20263,930——Direct

Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: -1,357,506 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.

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Full framework decision report

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

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What would LLY do to your portfolio?

Add Eli Lilly and Company at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

LLY is currently tagged:MomentumFails criteria (27/100)

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Eli Lilly and Company · LLY

LLY: 47% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 107%. Main risk to monitor: 87% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
47%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-3.3% → +20.7%
mid +8.7% / yr
Downside (p20)
-7.8%
stress -15.5%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 48/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.

Composite
48
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
23/ 100

P/B 28.46× · FCF yield 1.0%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

87% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~25%
$690.38
-7.0% / yr (5y)

Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 49%
  • • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%
$531.06
-11.8% / yr (5y)

Business continues to compound at recent rates — 49% operating margin holds, 56% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.

Global value comparison

Eli Lilly and Company vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricLLYGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—24.0×—20.0×
P/B28.46×4.80×—3.80×
Dividend yield0.72%1.40%—1.80%
ROE107.5%
Earnings reaction explainer

LLY missed by -2.9%.

Miss· -2.9%

Reported EPS $8.55 vs $8.81 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 49.4%.

  • Quality investorsNegative

    A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.

  • Growth investorsNegative

    Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.

  • Value investorsNeutral

    Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.

News & events

Next earnings

Wed, Aug 5 · consensus EPS $8.81 · last actual $8.55

  • Eli Lilly Price Prediction: This Is Where The Stock Will End This Year

    24/7 Wall St. · just now

  • In honor of its 150th anniversary, Eli Lilly and Company commits to support community organizations aiming to provide 500,000 meals and cold storage for 150 food pantries

    PR Newswire · just now

  • The 3 Best S&P 500 Stocks to Buy Now

    Motley Fool · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

1.28

P/B Ratio

28.46

EPS Growth

169.9%

Revenue Growth

55.5%

Debt / Equity

1.39

Net Cash / Share

$-42.71

Return on Equity

107.5%

Gross Margin

82.8%

Operating Margin

49.4%

FCF / Share

$10.27

Current Ratio

1.50

Walter Schloss
· Schloss Deep Value
0/100

P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 28.46× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Seth Klarman· Klarman Margin of Safety0/100

    FCF Yield > 7% is 1.0% — fails "> 7.0%".

  • Fama / French· Pure Value Factor0/100

    P/B < 1.5 is 28.46× — fails "< 1.50×".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    48/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 1 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationnegative

      Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

      87% above fair valueReverse DCF: low expectations bar1.0% FCF yield (thin)
      31
      /100
    • Qualitypositive

      Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.

      ROE 107%Op margin 49%Gross 83%EPS growth 170%
      89
      /100
    • Balance sheetneutral

      Capital structure is unremarkable — neither a stress nor a tailwind.

      50
      /100
    • Momentumneutral

      Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.

      73% through 52w range
      55
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      Net insider selling ($346.7M)1 tracked holders · peak 6.1%
      42
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsnegative

      Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.

      EPS miss (-3%)1 medium-severity flag
      38
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • ROE 107%
    • • Op margin 49%
    • • Gross 83%
    • • EPS growth 170%
    Key risks
    • • 87% above fair value
    • • Reverse DCF: low expectations bar
    • • 1.0% FCF yield (thin)
    • • EPS miss (-3%)
    • • 1 medium-severity flag
    • • Possible quality trap (paying up)
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Multiple compression
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 96 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 49% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.6% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    100/ 100

    ROE 107% · Op margin 49%

    Balance sheet15%
    63/ 100

    D/E 1.39 · CR 1.50

    Insider convictionown.
    15/ 100

    Net selling — 1 insider

    Superinvestorown.
    72/ 100

    1 tracked holder · peak 6.1%

    Shareholder yield10%
    37/ 100

    0.72% yield

    Momentum5%
    78/ 100

    73% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    100/ 100

    EPS 170% · Rev 56%

    Risk deduction: 1 pattern flagged · possible quality trap (paying up). 2 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near 56%
    • • Operating margin stays around 49%
    • • Capital returns continue at current cadence
    Bear
    ~20%
    $398.30
    -16.7% / yr (5y)

    A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.

    Drivers
    • • Growth decelerates by ~300 bps for two consecutive quarters
    • • Refinancing at higher rates pressures interest coverage
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    16.0%
    —
    15.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Management explanation of cause — one-off vs structural
    • • Analyst-revision direction over the next 1-2 weeks
  • Lilly Bounces Into ‘Sell in May’ Territory as Pricing Pressures Loom

    24/7 Wall St. · just now

  • This 1 Insane Nvidia Stat Explains Why Wall Street Can’t Stop Buying the Stock

    24/7 Wall St. · just now

  • GLP-1 Wars: Winners & Losers

    Zacks · just now

  • Institutional Own.

    85.5%

    Insider Own.

    0.2%

    Dividend Yield

    0.72%

    Book Value / Share

    $34.92

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 4.1%

    Grand Portfolio
    • Bill Nygren

      Harris Associates (Oakmark Funds) · Q4 2025

      4.1%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.