
A high-quality mega-cap momentum story trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
Mkt Cap
$886.15B
P/E
—
PEG
1.28
P/B
28.46
Dividend
0.72%
ROE
107.5%
About the business
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Who would buy LLY?
Consensus 27/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
Endorses
· 2 frameworksROE > 20% 107.5% clears "> 20.0%".
Within 15% of 52-wk high -12.4% clears "> -15.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks1 insiders sold $346.7M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net sellers by 1,357,506 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market sell | May 6, 2026 | 15,828 | $995.36 | $15.75M | Direct |
| FYRWALD J. ERIK | Director | Award / grant | Apr 20, 2026 | 10 | $991.70 | $10K | Direct |
| LUCIANO JUAN R | Director | Award / grant | Apr 20, 2026 | 17 | $936.29 | $16K | Direct |
| SULZBERGER GABRIELLE | Director | Award / grant | Apr 20, 2026 | 5 | $991.60 | $5K | Direct |
| ALVAREZ RALPH | Director | Award / grant | Apr 20, 2026 | 13 | $955.15 | $12K | Direct |
| FYRWALD J. ERIK | Director | Award / grant | Mar 16, 2026 | 10 | $991.70 | $10K | Direct |
| LUCIANO JUAN R | Director | Award / grant | Mar 16, 2026 | 16 | $994.81 | $16K | Direct |
| SULZBERGER GABRIELLE | Director | Award / grant | Mar 16, 2026 | 5 | $991.60 | $5K | Direct |
| ALVAREZ RALPH | Director | Award / grant | Mar 16, 2026 | 12 | $1034.67 | $12K | Direct |
| DOZIER ERIC | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Feb 19, 2026 | 481 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FYRWALD J. ERIK | Director | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 9 | $1101.89 | $10K | Direct |
| LUCIANO JUAN R | Director | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 15 | $1061.13 | $16K | Direct |
| SULZBERGER GABRIELLE | Director | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 4 | $1239.75 | $5K | Direct |
| ALVAREZ RALPH | Director | Award / grant | Feb 17, 2026 | 11 | $1128.82 | $12K | Direct |
| CUSTER KENNETH L | Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 207 | — | — | Direct |
| BROWN ADRIANE S | Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 391 | — | — | Direct |
| ZAKROWSKI DONALD A | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 184 | — | — | Direct |
| MONTARCE LUCAS E | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Feb 13, 2026 | 368 | — | — | Direct |
| HERNANDEZ EDGARDO | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 4,383 | $1044.84 | $4.58M | Direct |
| RAU DIOGO | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 4,432 | $1044.75 | $4.63M | Direct |
| RAU DIOGO | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 4,599 | $1044.71 | $4.80M | Direct |
| DOZIER ERIC | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 3,512 | $1044.76 | $3.67M | Direct |
| CUSTER KENNETH L | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 659 | $1045.11 | $689K | Direct |
| BROWN ADRIANE S | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 1,196 | $1044.94 | $1.25M | Direct |
| VAN NAARDEN JACOB S. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 4,865 | $1044.86 | $5.08M | Direct |
| HAKIM ANAT | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 8,277 | $1044.79 | $8.65M | Direct |
| RICKS DAVID A | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 38,913 | $1044.69 | $40.65M | Direct |
| ZAKROWSKI DONALD A | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 583 | $1046.08 | $610K | Direct |
| SKOVRONSKY DANIEL | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 15,547 | $1044.73 | $16.24M | Direct |
| MONTARCE LUCAS E | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 1,365 | $1045.03 | $1.43M | Direct |
| JONSSON PATRIK | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 4,818 | $1044.68 | $5.03M | Direct |
| YUFFA ILYA | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 9, 2026 | 4,162 | $1044.80 | $4.35M | Direct |
| HERNANDEZ EDGARDO | Officer | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 3,572 | — | — | Direct |
| RAU DIOGO | Officer | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 3,752 | — | — | Direct |
| DOZIER ERIC | Officer | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 2,858 | — | — | Direct |
| VAN NAARDEN JACOB S. | Officer | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 4,108 | — | — | Direct |
| HAKIM ANAT | General Counsel | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 6,700 | — | — | Direct |
| RICKS DAVID A | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 31,932 | — | — | Direct |
| SKOVRONSKY DANIEL | Officer | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 12,684 | — | — | Direct |
| JONSSON PATRIK | Officer | Transaction | Jan 30, 2026 | 3,930 | — | — | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: -1,357,506 sh
Price history
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
Add Eli Lilly and Company at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
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Sign in to run this simulationLLY: 47% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 107%. Main risk to monitor: 87% above fair value.
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
P/B 28.46× · FCF yield 1.0%
87% above fair value
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 49% operating margin holds, 56% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | LLY | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 24.0× | — | 20.0× |
| P/B | 28.46× | 4.80× | — | 3.80× |
| Dividend yield | 0.72% | 1.40% | — | 1.80% |
| ROE | 107.5% |
Reported EPS $8.55 vs $8.81 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 49.4%.
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
Next earnings
Wed, Aug 5 · consensus EPS $8.81 · last actual $8.55
Eli Lilly Price Prediction: This Is Where The Stock Will End This Year
24/7 Wall St. · just now
In honor of its 150th anniversary, Eli Lilly and Company commits to support community organizations aiming to provide 500,000 meals and cold storage for 150 food pantries
PR Newswire · just now
The 3 Best S&P 500 Stocks to Buy Now
Motley Fool · just now
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.28
P/B Ratio
28.46
EPS Growth
169.9%
Revenue Growth
55.5%
Debt / Equity
1.39
Net Cash / Share
$-42.71
Return on Equity
107.5%
Gross Margin
82.8%
Operating Margin
49.4%
FCF / Share
$10.27
Current Ratio
1.50
P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 28.46× — fails "< 1.00×".
FCF Yield > 7% is 1.0% — fails "> 7.0%".
P/B < 1.5 is 28.46× — fails "< 1.50×".
Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.
Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.
Capital structure is unremarkable — neither a stress nor a tailwind.
Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.
Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.
Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.
Among 96 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 49% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.6% / yr.
ROE 107% · Op margin 49%
D/E 1.39 · CR 1.50
Net selling — 1 insider
1 tracked holder · peak 6.1%
0.72% yield
73% through 52w range
EPS 170% · Rev 56%
A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.
| — |
| 15.0% |
Institutional Own.
85.5%
Insider Own.
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.72%
Book Value / Share
$34.92
Superinvestor ownership
Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 4.1%
Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.