LNC
Lincoln National CorporationFinancial ServicesInsurance - LifeValue
$35.15 · 15min delay
β 1.19A steady mid-cap business trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $31.6152-wk high $46.82
Mkt Cap
$6.72B
P/E
—
PEG
1.01
P/B
0.67
Dividend
5.18%
ROE
18.8%
About the business
Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, universal life insurance (UL), indexed universal life insurance, variable universal life insurance (VUL), linked-benefit UL and VUL products, and critical illness and long-term care riders. Its Annuities segment offers variable, fixed, and registered index-linked annuities. The Group Protection segment offers group nonmedical insurance products consisting of short and long-term disability and administration services, statutory disability; paid family medical leave administration and absence management services; term life; life; supplemental health insurance; accident, critical illness, and hospital indemnity benefits and dental and vision products to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. Its Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace; individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and various plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. It distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, financial institutions, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.
Who would buy LNC?
Consensus 34/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
4 4 7
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive100/100
P/B < 1.5 0.67× clears "< 1.50×".
- Fama / French· Pure Value Factor100/100
P/B < 1.5 0.67× clears "< 1.50×".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income100/100
Dividend Yield > 2% 5.2% clears "> 2.0%".
Insider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 35/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (CHARTERS JENNIFER, $10K). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 814,290 shares.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Weak match, score 34/100) and the archetype read (Value).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARTERS JENNIFER | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market buy | Mar 13, 2026 | 300 | $32.61 | $10K | Direct |
| WOODROFFE SEAN NIGEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 9, 2026 | 8,000 | $32.74 | $262K | Direct |
| WOODROFFE SEAN NIGEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 10,000 | $34.46 | $345K | Direct |
| MORRISS JOHN G. | Chief Investment Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 13,716 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ADHYA NILANJAN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 19,951 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BEAZER CRAIGT T | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 51,340 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KENNEDY JOHN CHRISTOPHER | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 38,111 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| COHEN ADAM M | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 17,603 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NECZYPOR CHRISTOPHER M. | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 90,073 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| REID JAMES WALTMAN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 79,968 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WOODROFFE SEAN NIGEL | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 75,812 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RALLIS ANDREW | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 30,549 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KROLL BRIAN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 20,574 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CHARTERS JENNIFER | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 18,704 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| COOPER ELLEN G | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 19, 2026 | 327,514 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| REID JAMES WALTMAN | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 18, 2026 | 3,050 | $41.81 | $128K | Direct |
| KENNEDY JOHN CHRISTOPHER | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 10, 2025 | 3,519 | $44.15 | $155K | Direct |
| COOPER ELLEN G | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Nov 26, 2025 | 38,891 | $35.50 | $1.38M | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.4% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +814,290 sh
Price history
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What would LNC do to your portfolio?
Add Lincoln National Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
LNC is currently tagged:ValueWeak match (34/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Lincoln National Corporation · LNC
LNC: 57% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: 85% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: Big EPS miss (-18%).
Outperform prob.
57%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
+1.3% → +25.3%
mid +13.3% / yr
Downside (p20)
-16.3%
stress -32.6%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 75/100. Strongest contribution from valuation; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
75
/ 100
Deep valueval.
100/ 100
P/B 0.67× · FCF yield 42.7%
Margin of safetyval.
100/ 100
85% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$296.74
+53.2% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from -4%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$228.27
+45.4% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — -4% operating margin holds, 13% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Lincoln National Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | LNC | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 11.2× | 8.5× | 11.5× |
| P/B | 0.67× | 1.70× | 1.20× | 1.30× |
| Dividend yield | 5.18% | 4.60% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| ROE | 18.8% |
Earnings reaction explainer
LNC missed materially — -17.7% below consensus.
Reported EPS $1.66 vs $2.02 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: -4.1%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Jul 30 · consensus EPS $2.02 · last actual $1.66
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.01
P/B Ratio
0.67
EPS Growth
N/A
Revenue Growth
12.5%
Debt / Equity
0.66
Net Cash / Share
$188.14
Return on Equity
18.8%
Gross Margin
27.0%
Operating Margin
-4.1%
FCF / Share
$15.02
Current Ratio
2.19