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LULU logo

LULU

lululemon athletica inc.
Consumer CyclicalApparel RetailRisk-First
$124.15 · 15min delay
β 0.90

A high-quality large-cap risk-flagged situation trading at a discounted valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

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52-wk low $123.5152-wk high $340.25

Mkt Cap

$14.56B

P/E

—

PEG

0.63

P/B

2.91

Dividend

—

ROE

34.0%

About the business

lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. It offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. The company also provides fitness-inspired accessories. It sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Who would buy LULU?

Consensus 47/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

6 7 2

Endorses

· 3 frameworks
  • Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100

    ROE > 15% 34.0% clears "> 15.0%".

  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100

    ROE > 20% 34.0% clears "> 20.0%".

  • Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First100/100

    Debt/Equity < 0.5 0.36 clears "< 0.50".

Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 50/100

3 insiders sold $3.4M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 67,134 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Weak match).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
NEUBURGER NICOLEOfficerOpen-market sellApr 8, 2026622$161.00$100KDirect
MAESTRINI ANDREChief Executive OfficerOpen-market buyApr 1, 20263,275$151.02$495KDirect
NEUBURGER NICOLEOfficerTransactionMar 30, 20263,754——Direct
FRANK MEGHANChief Executive OfficerTransactionMar 30, 20263,754——Direct
MAESTRINI ANDREChief Executive OfficerTransactionMar 30, 20264,692——Direct
BERGH CHARLES VDirectorOpen-market buyMar 20, 20266,090$164.20$1000KIndirect
MUSSAFER DAVID MDirectorAward / grantMar 19, 20261,087$0.00$0Direct
BERGH CHARLES VDirectorAward / grantMar 19, 2026272$0.00$0Direct
MCNEILL JONDirectorAward / grantMar 19, 2026355$0.00$0Direct
MAHE ISABELDirectorAward / grantMar 19, 2026664$0.00$0Direct
NEUBURGER NICOLEOfficerAward / grantMar 19, 20263,745$0.00$0Direct
FRANK MEGHANChief Executive OfficerAward / grantMar 19, 20265,436$0.00$0Direct
MAESTRINI ANDREChief Executive OfficerAward / grantMar 19, 20265,436$0.00$0Direct
GRANT SHANEDirectorAward / grantMar 19, 2026695$0.00$0Direct
DAS RANJUChief Technology OfficerAward / grantMar 19, 20263,926$0.00$0Direct
FRANK MEGHANChief Financial OfficerOpen-market sellDec 30, 20252,658$211.37$562KDirect
FRANK MEGHANChief Financial OfficerOption exerciseDec 30, 20252,763$167.54$463KDirect
MORFITT MARTHA A MDirectorStock Gift at price 0.00 per share.Dec 19, 20256,500$0.00$0Direct
MORFITT MARTHA A MDirectorAward / grantDec 17, 20253,608$0.00$0Direct
BURGOYNE CELESTEOfficerOpen-market sellDec 16, 202513,511$204.00$2.76MDirect
NEUBURGER NICOLEOfficerAward / grantDec 15, 20256,059$0.00$0Direct
FRANK MEGHANChief Financial OfficerAward / grantDec 15, 202510,907$0.00$0Direct
MAESTRINI ANDREPresidentAward / grantDec 15, 202510,907$0.00$0Direct

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 4.7% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +67,134 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: A notable drawdown — worth re-reading the framework verdicts below with the cheaper price in mind.

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AI summaries

Members get a plain-English 'what matters now' brief plus an explanation of why the price is moving, grounded in Prism's framework scores.

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Full framework decision report

See how Lynch, Buffett, Graham, Greenblatt, Fisher and more each score this stock — with every rule, threshold, and reason exposed.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would LULU do to your portfolio?

Add lululemon athletica inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

LULU is currently tagged:Risk-FirstWeak match (47/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

lululemon athletica inc. · LULU

LULU: 59% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: 41% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: Near 52w lows (0%).

Outperform prob.
59%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
+1.3% → +25.3%
mid +13.3% / yr
Downside (p20)
-12.8%
stress -25.6%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 78/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from ownership. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.

Composite
78
/ 100
Attractive
Deep valueval.
74/ 100

P/B 2.91× · FCF yield 5.7%

Margin of safetyval.
100/ 100

41% below fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~25%
$271.60
+16.9% / yr (5y)

Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 22%
  • • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%
$208.92
+11.0% / yr (5y)

Business continues to compound at recent rates — 22% operating margin holds, 1% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.

Global value comparison

lululemon athletica inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricLULUGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—17.5×—14.0×
P/B2.91×2.40×—2.00×
Dividend yield—2.40%—2.40%
ROE34.0%
Earnings reaction explainer

LULU blew past estimates by 196.4%.

Big beat· +196.4%

Reported EPS $5.01 vs $1.69 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 22.3%.

  • Growth investorsPositive

    Confirms operating leverage — -19% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.

  • Quality investorsPositive

    If ROE (34%) and operating margin (22%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.

  • Value investorsNeutral

    A blow-out can pull future quarters forward — value investors will look for sustained margin, not a single-quarter spike.

News & events

Next earnings

Thu, Jun 4 · consensus EPS $1.69 · last actual $5.01

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

0.63

P/B Ratio

2.91

EPS Growth

-18.5%

Revenue Growth

0.8%

Debt / Equity

0.36

Net Cash / Share

$0.08

Return on Equity

34.0%

Gross Margin

56.6%

Operating Margin

22.3%

FCF / Share

$7.46

Current Ratio

2.26

Rejects

· 2 frameworks
  • William O'Neil· Momentum / CAN SLIM25/100

    Within 15% of 52-wk high is -63.5% — fails "> -15.0%".

  • Philip Fisher· Fisher Growth38/100

    Revenue Growth > 15% is 0.8% — fails "> 15.0%".

See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
Prism Score
78/100
Medium agreement
Signal families · 3 of 6 signal families positive
Agreement: Medium
  • Valuationpositive

    Trades materially below the fair-value range — historically a tailwind for forward returns.

    41% below fair valueReverse DCF: low expectations bar
    85
    /100
  • Qualitypositive

    Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.

    ROE 34%Op margin 22%Gross 57%EPS shrinking -19%
    69
    /100
  • Balance sheetpositive

    Capital structure is conservative and well-covered.

    D/E 0.36CR 2.26
    68
    /100
  • Momentumnegative

    Price has been weak — momentum is a headwind.

    Near 52w lows (0%)64% off 52w high
    40
    /100
  • Behaviouralneutral

    Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

    Insider buying ($1.5M)Net insider selling ($20.8M)1 tracked holders · peak 9.1%
    50
    /100
  • Catalysts & eventsneutral

    Mixed catalyst picture.

    Big EPS beat (+196%)1 medium-severity flag
    56
    /100
Positive drivers
  • • 41% below fair value
  • • Reverse DCF: low expectations bar
  • • ROE 34%
  • • Op margin 22%
  • • Gross 57%
Key risks
  • • Near 52w lows (0%)
  • • 64% off 52w high
  • • Possible value trap
Suggested diligence questions
  • 1. Is the valuation discount durable, or is the market pricing in deteriorating fundamentals?
  • 2. Sequential revenue trend
Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

Among 106 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 57% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of +4.0% / yr.

Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
View full thesis
Quality20%
94/ 100

ROE 34% · Op margin 22%

Balance sheet15%
93/ 100

D/E 0.36 · CR 2.26

Insider convictionown.
69/ 100

2 insiders buying

Superinvestorown.
78/ 100

1 tracked holder · peak 9.1%

Shareholder yield10%
76/ 100

Buyback runway via FCF

Momentum5%
20/ 100

0% through 52w range

Growth5%
19/ 100

EPS -19% · Rev 1%

Risk deduction: 1 pattern flagged · possible value trap. 2 points removed from composite.

Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

Customise weights
Drivers
  • • Revenue growth holds near 1%
  • • Operating margin stays around 22%
  • • Capital returns continue at current cadence
Bear
~20%
$156.69
+4.8% / yr (5y)

A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.

Drivers
  • • Growth decelerates by ~300 bps for two consecutive quarters
  • • Multiple compresses as estimates roll back
  • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
Indicative weights
13.0%
—
11.0%

Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

What to watch on the next print
  • • Whether margin expansion sustains into next quarter
  • • Forward guidance update — beats without raises tend to fade

Institutional Own.

83.5%

Insider Own.

4.7%

Dividend Yield

N/A

Book Value / Share

$42.59

Superinvestor ownership

Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 4.1%

Grand Portfolio

  • François Rochon

    Giverny Capital · Q4 2025

    4.1%

Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.