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MA

Mastercard Incorporated
Financial ServicesCredit ServicesQuality
$505.81 · 15min delay
β 0.76

A high-quality mega-cap compounder trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

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52-wk low $480.5052-wk high $601.77

Mkt Cap

$446.93B

P/E

—

PEG

1.58

P/B

66.76

Dividend

0.70%

ROE

232.1%

About the business

Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs, and financial institutions, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; marketing, personalization, and issuer and merchant loyalty services; business and operational intelligence, advanced analytics and AI, consulting and agentic solutions, and payments and portfolio optimization; digital and authentication; processing and gateway solutions; and other solutions. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

Who would buy MA?

Consensus 23/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.

2 4 9

Endorses

· 2 frameworks
  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100

    ROE > 20% 232.1% clears "> 20.0%".

  • AQR / Asness· Quality Factor86/100

    ROE > 20% 232.1% clears "> 20.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 40/100

1 insiders sold $4.5M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 178,550 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
VERMA RICHARD ROfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 20261,958$0.00$0Direct
MIEBACH MICHAELChief Executive OfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 202653,710$0.00$0Direct
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIAOfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 202611,101$0.00$0Direct
MUIGAI SUSAN WOfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 20261,469$0.00$0Direct
LING HAIOfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 20269,607$0.00$0Direct
LAMBERT JORNOfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 20266,991$0.00$0Direct
KRAMER JILLOfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 20261,860$0.00$0Direct
HUNTSMAN JON M JROfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 20261,997$0.00$0Direct
ARKELL SANDRA AOfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 2026923$0.00$0Direct
VOSBURG CRAIGOfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 202617,730$0.00$0Direct
SESHADRI RAJEEVOfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 202610,813$0.00$0Direct
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDEPresidentAward / grantFeb 27, 202612,754$0.00$0Direct
SACHIN J. MEHRAChief Financial OfficerAward / grantFeb 27, 202622,648$0.00$0Direct
LING HAIOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 24, 20268,971$499.20$4.48MDirect
LING HAIOfficerOption exerciseFeb 24, 20268,971$90.10$808KDirect
QURESHI RIMADirectorStock Gift at price 0.00 per share.Feb 5, 202612,083$0.00$0Direct
KRAMER JILLOfficerAward / grantDec 1, 20259,276$0.00$0Direct

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.6% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +178,550 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would MA do to your portfolio?

Add Mastercard Incorporated at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

MA is currently tagged:QualityFails criteria (23/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Mastercard Incorporated · MA

MA: 49% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 232%. Main risk to monitor: D/E 2.82 (heavy).

Outperform prob.
49%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-1.6% → +22.4%
mid +10.4% / yr
Downside (p20)
-11.1%
stress -22.2%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 55/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.

Composite
55
/ 100
Mixed
Deep valueval.
31/ 100

P/B 66.76× · FCF yield 3.6%

Margin of safetyval.
45/ 100

15% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~25%
$571.98
+2.5% / yr (5y)

Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 61%
  • • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%
$439.98
-2.7% / yr (5y)

Business continues to compound at recent rates — 61% operating margin holds, 16% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.

Global value comparison

Mastercard Incorporated vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricMAGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—11.2×8.5×11.5×
P/B66.76×1.70×1.20×1.30×
Dividend yield0.70%4.60%4.20%4.00%
ROE232.1%
Earnings reaction explainer

MA missed by -3.4%.

Miss· -3.4%

Reported EPS $4.60 vs $4.76 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 60.8%.

  • Quality investorsNegative

    A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.

  • Growth investorsNegative

    Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.

  • Value investorsNeutral

    Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.

News & events

Next earnings

Thu, Jul 30 · consensus EPS $4.76 · last actual $4.60

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    Simply Wall St. · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

1.58

P/B Ratio

66.76

EPS Growth

21.2%

Revenue Growth

15.8%

Debt / Equity

2.82

Net Cash / Share

$-12.25

Return on Equity

232.1%

Gross Margin

100.0%

Operating Margin

60.8%

FCF / Share

$18.41

Current Ratio

0.98

Walter Schloss
· Schloss Deep Value
0/100

P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 66.76× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Seth Klarman· Klarman Margin of Safety0/100

    FCF Yield > 7% is 3.6% — fails "> 7.0%".

  • Fama / French· Pure Value Factor0/100

    P/B < 1.5 is 66.76× — fails "< 1.50×".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    55/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 1 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationneutral

      Roughly fairly valued; valuation is a neutral input.

      15% above fair valueReverse DCF: low expectations bar
      48
      /100
    • Qualitypositive

      Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.

      ROE 232%Op margin 61%Gross 100%EPS growth 21%
      89
      /100
    • Balance sheetnegative

      Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.

      D/E 2.82 (heavy)CR 0.98 (tight)
      32
      /100
    • Momentumneutral

      Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.

      46
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      Net insider selling ($55.3M)3 tracked holders · peak 18.1%
      50
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsnegative

      Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.

      EPS miss (-3%)1 medium-severity flag
      38
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • ROE 232%
    • • Op margin 61%
    • • Gross 100%
    • • EPS growth 21%
    Key risks
    • • D/E 2.82 (heavy)
    • • CR 0.98 (tight)
    • • EPS miss (-3%)
    • • 1 medium-severity flag
    • • Balance-sheet leverage is meaningful
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Debt maturity wall
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 98 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 50% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of +0.3% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    100/ 100

    ROE 232% · Op margin 61%

    Balance sheet15%
    30/ 100

    D/E 2.82 · CR 0.98

    Insider convictionown.
    57/ 100

    Net selling — 6 insiders

    Superinvestorown.
    87/ 100

    3 tracked holders · peak 18.1%

    Shareholder yield10%
    60/ 100

    0.70% yield + buyback runway

    Momentum5%
    37/ 100

    21% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    84/ 100

    EPS 21% · Rev 16%

    Risk deduction: 1 pattern flagged · balance-sheet leverage is meaningful. 2 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near 16%
    • • Operating margin stays around 61%
    • • Capital returns continue at current cadence
    Bear
    ~20%
    $329.99
    -8.2% / yr (5y)

    A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.

    Drivers
    • • Growth decelerates by ~300 bps for two consecutive quarters
    • • Refinancing at higher rates pressures interest coverage
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    15.0%
    17.0%
    12.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Management explanation of cause — one-off vs structural
    • • Analyst-revision direction over the next 1-2 weeks
    • • Interest coverage and debt maturity wall
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  • Institutional Own.

    91.4%

    Insider Own.

    0.6%

    Dividend Yield

    0.70%

    Book Value / Share

    $7.58

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 3 tracked superinvestors · peak weight 16.1%

    Grand Portfolio
    • Chuck Akre

      Akre Capital Management · Q4 2025

      16.1%
    • Tom Russo

      Gardner Russo & Quinn · Q4 2025

      8.2%
    • Guy Spier

      Aquamarine Capital · Q4 2025

      7.6%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.