
A high-quality large-cap compounder trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
Mkt Cap
$79.61B
P/E
—
PEG
2.06
P/B
26.59
Dividend
—
ROE
71.4%
About the business
Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Services (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets. This segment also offers credit research, credit models and analytics, economics data and models, and structured finance solutions; data sets on companies and securities; and cloud-based SaaS subscription-based solutions supporting banking, insurance, and know-your-customer workflows. Its MIS segment publishes credit ratings and provides assessment services on various debt obligations, programs and facilities, and entities that issue such obligations, such as various corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities. It also provides ratings, investment research, compliance and third-party risk, supplier risk, trade credit, business intelligence sales and marketing, financial and regulatory reporting, balance sheet management, capital management, credit portfolio management, and model risk and governance solutions; Maxsight, a unified risk platform; lending suite, origination, and monitoring solutions; and property, casualty, and sustainable insurance underwriting solutions. The company serves the financial, banking, insurance, corporation, public, and asset management sectors. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000. Moody's Corporation was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Who would buy MCO?
Consensus 22/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
Endorses
· 2 frameworksROE > 20% 71.4% clears "> 20.0%".
ROE > 20% 71.4% clears "> 20.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks5 insiders sold $9.6M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 50,789 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | May 1, 2026 | 1,167 | $140.03 | $163K | Direct |
| STEELE RICHARD G | General Counsel | Open-market sell | May 1, 2026 | 158 | $466.39 | $74K | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | May 1, 2026 | 1,467 | $466.39 | $684K | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Apr 1, 2026 | 1,167 | $140.03 | $163K | Direct |
| STEELE RICHARD G | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Apr 1, 2026 | 158 | $437.77 | $69K | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 1, 2026 | 1,467 | $437.77 | $642K | Direct |
| SAWICKI LISA P. | Director | Award / grant | Mar 16, 2026 | 528 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BERMUDEZ JORGE A | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 21 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| VAN SAUN BRUCE W | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 26 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FORLENZA VINCENT A | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 22 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ESPERDY THERESE | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 15 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MINAYA JOSE | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 10 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SEIDMAN LESLIE F | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 22 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WEST MICHAEL L | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 4, 2026 | 4,250 | $473.72 | $2.01M | Direct |
| HEULAND NOEMIE CLEMENCE | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 4, 2026 | 100 | $465.87 | $47K | Direct |
| PHILLIPS JASON D | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 4, 2026 | 333 | $472.78 | $157K | Direct |
| STEELE RICHARD G | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Mar 3, 2026 | 375 | $456.71 | $171K | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 3, 2026 | 5,213 | $456.71 | $2.38M | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 35,556 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WEST MICHAEL L | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 7,272 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STEELE RICHARD G | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,308 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WEST MICHAEL L | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 26, 2026 | 3,327 | $315.04 | $1.05M | Direct |
| WEST MICHAEL L | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 26, 2026 | 3,327 | $474.10 | $1.58M | Direct |
| BERMUDEZ JORGE A | Director | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| VAN SAUN BRUCE W | Director | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FORLENZA VINCENT A | Director | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 684 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ESPERDY THERESE | Director | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SERAFIN ZIG | Director | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DHAWAN SUMIT | Director | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MINAYA JOSE | Director | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SEIDMAN LESLIE F | Director | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 7,528 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WEST MICHAEL L | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 1,578 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HEULAND NOEMIE CLEMENCE | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 2,366 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STEELE RICHARD G | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 924 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PHILLIPS JASON D | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 541 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Feb 3, 2026 | 1,167 | $140.03 | $163K | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 3, 2026 | 1,167 | $507.65 | $592K | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Jan 5, 2026 | 1,167 | $140.03 | $163K | Direct |
| FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 5, 2026 | 1,167 | $505.78 | $590K | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 14.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +50,789 sh
Price history
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
Add Moody's Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationMCO: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 71%. Main risk to monitor: 41% above fair value.
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
P/B 26.59× · FCF yield 2.8%
41% above fair value
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 46% operating margin holds, 8% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | MCO | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 11.2× | 8.5× | 11.5× |
| P/B | 26.59× | 1.70× | 1.20× | 1.30× |
| Dividend yield | — | 4.60% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| ROE | 71.4% |
Reported EPS $4.33 vs $4.19 expected — a routine beat. Read the rest of the print (guidance, margins, segment mix) before assuming the multiple should expand. Trailing operating margin: 45.7%.
A routine beat with stable margins is the textbook compounder pattern — nothing changes in the thesis.
Whether the beat matters depends on entry multiple. P/E — sets the bar.
Positive but unremarkable — guidance and KPI commentary will move the stock more than the beat itself.
Next earnings
Thu, Jul 23 · consensus EPS $4.19 · last actual $4.33
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.06
P/B Ratio
26.59
EPS Growth
7.8%
Revenue Growth
8.1%
Debt / Equity
2.36
Net Cash / Share
$-33.74
Return on Equity
71.4%
Gross Margin
74.4%
Operating Margin
45.7%
FCF / Share
$12.97
Current Ratio
1.16
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 2.06× — fails "< 1.00×".
FCF Yield > 7% is 2.8% — fails "> 7.0%".
P/B < 1.5 is 26.59× — fails "< 1.50×".
Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.
Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.
Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.
Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.
Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.
Mixed catalyst picture.
Among 97 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 49% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.2% / yr.
ROE 71% · Op margin 46%
D/E 2.36 · CR 1.16
Net selling — 5 insiders
5 tracked holders · peak 22.1%
Buyback runway via FCF
37% through 52w range
EPS 8% · Rev 8%
A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.
| 15.0% |
| 17.0% |
| 12.0% |
Institutional Own.
81.2%
Insider Own.
14.3%
Dividend Yield
N/A
Book Value / Share
$17.14
Superinvestor ownership
Held by 5 tracked superinvestors · peak weight 14.2%
Chris Hohn
TCI Fund Management · Q4 2025
Chuck Akre
Akre Capital Management · Q4 2025
François Rochon
Giverny Capital · Q4 2025
Terry Smith
Fundsmith LLP · Q4 2025
Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway · Q4 2025
Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.