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MCO logo

MCO

Moody's Corporation
Financial ServicesFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesQuality
$455.78 · 15min delay
β 1.37

A high-quality large-cap compounder trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

Download report

52-wk low $402.2852-wk high $546.88

Mkt Cap

$79.61B

P/E

—

PEG

2.06

P/B

26.59

Dividend

—

ROE

71.4%

About the business

Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Services (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets. This segment also offers credit research, credit models and analytics, economics data and models, and structured finance solutions; data sets on companies and securities; and cloud-based SaaS subscription-based solutions supporting banking, insurance, and know-your-customer workflows. Its MIS segment publishes credit ratings and provides assessment services on various debt obligations, programs and facilities, and entities that issue such obligations, such as various corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities. It also provides ratings, investment research, compliance and third-party risk, supplier risk, trade credit, business intelligence sales and marketing, financial and regulatory reporting, balance sheet management, capital management, credit portfolio management, and model risk and governance solutions; Maxsight, a unified risk platform; lending suite, origination, and monitoring solutions; and property, casualty, and sustainable insurance underwriting solutions. The company serves the financial, banking, insurance, corporation, public, and asset management sectors. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000. Moody's Corporation was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Who would buy MCO?

Consensus 22/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.

2 3 10

Endorses

· 2 frameworks
  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100

    ROE > 20% 71.4% clears "> 20.0%".

  • AQR / Asness· Quality Factor86/100

    ROE > 20% 71.4% clears "> 20.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 60/100

5 insiders sold $9.6M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 50,789 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOption exerciseMay 1, 20261,167$140.03$163KDirect
STEELE RICHARD GGeneral CounselOpen-market sellMay 1, 2026158$466.39$74KDirect
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellMay 1, 20261,467$466.39$684KDirect
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOption exerciseApr 1, 20261,167$140.03$163KDirect
STEELE RICHARD GGeneral CounselOpen-market sellApr 1, 2026158$437.77$69KDirect
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellApr 1, 20261,467$437.77$642KDirect
SAWICKI LISA P.DirectorAward / grantMar 16, 2026528$0.00$0Direct
BERMUDEZ JORGE ADirectorAward / grantMar 13, 202621$0.00$0Direct
VAN SAUN BRUCE WDirectorAward / grantMar 13, 202626$0.00$0Direct
FORLENZA VINCENT ADirectorAward / grantMar 13, 202622$0.00$0Direct
ESPERDY THERESEDirectorAward / grantMar 13, 202615$0.00$0Direct
MINAYA JOSEDirectorAward / grantMar 13, 202610$0.00$0Direct
SEIDMAN LESLIE FDirectorAward / grantMar 13, 202622$0.00$0Direct
WEST MICHAEL LOfficerOpen-market sellMar 4, 20264,250$473.72$2.01MDirect
HEULAND NOEMIE CLEMENCEChief Financial OfficerOpen-market sellMar 4, 2026100$465.87$47KDirect
PHILLIPS JASON DOfficerOpen-market sellMar 4, 2026333$472.78$157KDirect
STEELE RICHARD GGeneral CounselOpen-market sellMar 3, 2026375$456.71$171KDirect
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellMar 3, 20265,213$456.71$2.38MDirect
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerAward / grantMar 2, 202635,556$0.00$0Direct
WEST MICHAEL LOfficerAward / grantMar 2, 20267,272$0.00$0Direct
STEELE RICHARD GGeneral CounselAward / grantMar 2, 20261,308$0.00$0Direct
WEST MICHAEL LOfficerOption exerciseFeb 26, 20263,327$315.04$1.05MDirect
WEST MICHAEL LOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 26, 20263,327$474.10$1.58MDirect
BERMUDEZ JORGE ADirectorAward / grantFeb 25, 2026500$0.00$0Direct
VAN SAUN BRUCE WDirectorAward / grantFeb 25, 2026500$0.00$0Direct
FORLENZA VINCENT ADirectorAward / grantFeb 25, 2026684$0.00$0Direct
ESPERDY THERESEDirectorAward / grantFeb 25, 2026500$0.00$0Direct
SERAFIN ZIGDirectorAward / grantFeb 25, 2026500$0.00$0Direct
DHAWAN SUMITDirectorAward / grantFeb 25, 2026500$0.00$0Direct
MINAYA JOSEDirectorAward / grantFeb 25, 2026500$0.00$0Direct
SEIDMAN LESLIE FDirectorAward / grantFeb 25, 2026500$0.00$0Direct
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20267,528$0.00$0Direct
WEST MICHAEL LOfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20261,578$0.00$0Direct
HEULAND NOEMIE CLEMENCEChief Financial OfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20262,366$0.00$0Direct
STEELE RICHARD GGeneral CounselAward / grantFeb 23, 2026924$0.00$0Direct
PHILLIPS JASON DOfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 2026541$0.00$0Direct
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOption exerciseFeb 3, 20261,167$140.03$163KDirect
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellFeb 3, 20261,167$507.65$592KDirect
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOption exerciseJan 5, 20261,167$140.03$163KDirect
FAUBER ROBERTChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellJan 5, 20261,167$505.78$590KDirect

Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 14.3% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +50,789 sh

Price history

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AI summaries

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Full framework decision report

See how Lynch, Buffett, Graham, Greenblatt, Fisher and more each score this stock — with every rule, threshold, and reason exposed.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would MCO do to your portfolio?

Add Moody's Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

MCO is currently tagged:QualityFails criteria (22/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Moody's Corporation · MCO

MCO: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 71%. Main risk to monitor: 41% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
48%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-4.3% → +19.7%
mid +7.7% / yr
Downside (p20)
-18.4%
stress -36.9%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 51/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.

Composite
51
/ 100
Mixed
Deep valueval.
29/ 100

P/B 26.59× · FCF yield 2.8%

Margin of safetyval.
19/ 100

41% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~25%
$419.16
-1.7% / yr (5y)

Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 46%
  • • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%
$322.43
-6.7% / yr (5y)

Business continues to compound at recent rates — 46% operating margin holds, 8% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.

Global value comparison

Moody's Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricMCOGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—11.2×8.5×11.5×
P/B26.59×1.70×1.20×1.30×
Dividend yield—4.60%4.20%4.00%
ROE71.4%
Earnings reaction explainer

MCO beat by 3.4%.

Beat· +3.4%

Reported EPS $4.33 vs $4.19 expected — a routine beat. Read the rest of the print (guidance, margins, segment mix) before assuming the multiple should expand. Trailing operating margin: 45.7%.

  • Quality investorsPositive

    A routine beat with stable margins is the textbook compounder pattern — nothing changes in the thesis.

  • Value investorsNeutral

    Whether the beat matters depends on entry multiple. P/E — sets the bar.

  • Growth investorsNeutral

    Positive but unremarkable — guidance and KPI commentary will move the stock more than the beat itself.

What to watch on the next print

News & events

Next earnings

Thu, Jul 23 · consensus EPS $4.19 · last actual $4.33

  • Moody's Affirms Bigbank's Ratings and Assessments

    GlobeNewswire · just now

  • Moody's Corporation (NYSE:MCO) Passed Our Checks, And It's About To Pay A US$1.03 Dividend

    Simply Wall St. · just now

  • Officials identify Delta worker killed after vehicle crash at Orlando airport

    Orlando Sentinel · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

2.06

P/B Ratio

26.59

EPS Growth

7.8%

Revenue Growth

8.1%

Debt / Equity

2.36

Net Cash / Share

$-33.74

Return on Equity

71.4%

Gross Margin

74.4%

Operating Margin

45.7%

FCF / Share

$12.97

Current Ratio

1.16

Peter Lynch
· Lynch GARP
0/100

PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 2.06× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Seth Klarman· Klarman Margin of Safety0/100

    FCF Yield > 7% is 2.8% — fails "> 7.0%".

  • Fama / French· Pure Value Factor0/100

    P/B < 1.5 is 26.59× — fails "< 1.50×".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    51/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 1 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationnegative

      Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

      41% above fair value
      25
      /100
    • Qualitypositive

      Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.

      ROE 71%Op margin 46%Gross 74%
      81
      /100
    • Balance sheetnegative

      Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.

      D/E 2.36 (heavy)
      38
      /100
    • Momentumneutral

      Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.

      46
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      Net insider selling ($9.6M)5 tracked holders · peak 22.1%
      53
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsneutral

      Mixed catalyst picture.

      EPS beat (+3%)1 medium-severity flag
      49
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • ROE 71%
    • • Op margin 46%
    • • Gross 74%
    Key risks
    • • 41% above fair value
    • • D/E 2.36 (heavy)
    • • Possible quality trap (paying up)
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Multiple compression
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 97 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 49% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.2% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    100/ 100

    ROE 71% · Op margin 46%

    Balance sheet15%
    41/ 100

    D/E 2.36 · CR 1.16

    Insider convictionown.
    53/ 100

    Net selling — 5 insiders

    Superinvestorown.
    95/ 100

    5 tracked holders · peak 22.1%

    Shareholder yield10%
    51/ 100

    Buyback runway via FCF

    Momentum5%
    50/ 100

    37% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    59/ 100

    EPS 8% · Rev 8%

    Risk deduction: 1 pattern flagged · possible quality trap (paying up). 2 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near 8%
    • • Operating margin stays around 46%
    • • Capital returns continue at current cadence
    Bear
    ~20%
    $241.82
    -11.9% / yr (5y)

    A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.

    Drivers
    • • Growth decelerates by ~300 bps for two consecutive quarters
    • • Refinancing at higher rates pressures interest coverage
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    15.0%
    17.0%
    12.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    • • Whether margin expansion sustains into next quarter
    • • Forward guidance update — beats without raises tend to fade
    • • Interest coverage and debt maturity wall
  • An airport hotel is your chance to plane-spot from a rooftop pool

    TheStreet · just now

  • Nanoscope Therapeutics to Present Advanced Clinical and Manufacturing Findings at ASGCT 2026 Annual Meeting

    PR Newswire · just now

  • Verizon’s Global Hybrid Bond-Sale Push Reaches $12 Billion

    Bloomberg · just now

  • Institutional Own.

    81.2%

    Insider Own.

    14.3%

    Dividend Yield

    N/A

    Book Value / Share

    $17.14

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 5 tracked superinvestors · peak weight 14.2%

    Grand Portfolio
    • Chris Hohn

      TCI Fund Management · Q4 2025

      14.2%
    • Chuck Akre

      Akre Capital Management · Q4 2025

      12.5%
    • François Rochon

      Giverny Capital · Q4 2025

      6.1%
    • Terry Smith

      Fundsmith LLP · Q4 2025

      5.0%
    • Warren Buffett

      Berkshire Hathaway · Q4 2025

      2.9%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.