MGM
MGM Resorts InternationalConsumer CyclicalResorts & CasinosIncome
$37.96 · 15min delay
β 1.28A high-quality mid-cap income stock trading near fair value.
52-wk low $29.1952-wk high $40.94
Mkt Cap
$9.71B
P/E
—
PEG
1.10
P/B
3.99
Dividend
—
ROE
13.5%
About the business
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. The company operates casino resorts that offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities, as well as online/digital games through its online platforms. Its casino operations include slots and table games, as well as live dealer, online sports betting, and iGaming through BetMGM. The company's customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Who would buy MGM?
Consensus 7/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 2 12
Endorses
· 1 framework- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income80/100
Payout Ratio < 70% 0.0% clears "< 70.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP0/100
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 1.10× — fails "< 1.00×".
- Joel Greenblatt
Insider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 45/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (IAC INC., $77.1M). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 2,128,351 shares.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 7/100) and the archetype read (Income).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCKINNEY-JAMES ROSE E | Director | Transaction | May 6, 2026 | 3,338 | — | — | Direct |
| WINSTON BENJAMIN | Director | Transaction | May 6, 2026 | 3,338 | — | — | Direct |
| LANGLEY DONNA | Director | Option exercise | May 6, 2026 | 6,675 | $38.21 | $255K | Direct |
| SWARTZ JANET | Director | Transaction | May 6, 2026 | 6,675 | — | — | Direct |
| SALEM PAUL J | Director | Option exercise | May 6, 2026 | 6,675 | $38.21 | $255K | Direct |
| TAYLOR DANIEL J | Director | Transaction | May 6, 2026 | 6,675 | — | — | Indirect |
| IAC INC. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 24, 2026 | 1,000,000 | $37.22 | $37.22M | Direct |
| MEISTER KEITH A | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 9, 2026 | 37,500 | $34.27 | $1.29M | Indirect |
| MOLINO AYESHA KHANNA | Chief Operating Officer | Transaction | Feb 27, 2026 | 299 | — | — | Direct |
| HORNBUCKLE WILLIAM J IV | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Feb 24, 2026 | 12,340 | — | — | Direct |
| HALKYARD JONATHAN S | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Feb 24, 2026 | 6,083 | — | — | Direct |
| IAC INC. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Dec 5, 2025 | 1,098,748 | $36.30 | $39.88M | Direct |
| FRITZ GARY M | Officer | Transaction | Dec 1, 2025 | 15,005 | — | — | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 27.4% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +2,128,351 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What would MGM do to your portfolio?
Add MGM Resorts International at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
MGM is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (7/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
MGM Resorts International · MGM
MGM: 45% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: Insider buying ($77.1M). Main risk to monitor: 171% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
45%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-12.9% → +23.1%
mid +5.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-17.4%
stress -34.8%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 46/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
46
/ 100
Deep valueval.
67/ 100
P/B 3.99× · FCF yield 5.4%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
171% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$18.19
-13.7% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 7%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$13.99
-18.1% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 7% operating margin and 4% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
MGM Resorts International vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | MGM | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 3.99× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | 13.5% |
Earnings reaction explainer
MGM missed materially — -22.6% below consensus.
Reported EPS $0.49 vs $0.63 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 6.9%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 29 · consensus EPS $0.63 · last actual $0.49
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.10
P/B Ratio
3.99
EPS Growth
-5.9%
Revenue Growth
4.2%
Debt / Equity
9.51
Net Cash / Share
$-114.08
Return on Equity
13.5%
Gross Margin
44.2%
Operating Margin
6.9%
FCF / Share
$2.07
Current Ratio
1.33