MKL
Markel Group Inc.Financial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyValue
$1852.21 · 15min delay
β 0.67A steady large-cap business trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $1719.4152-wk high $2207.59
Mkt Cap
$23.18B
P/E
—
PEG
1.79
P/B
1.25
Dividend
—
ROE
10.0%
About the business
Markel Group Inc. engages in the insurance business in the United States, the United Kingdom, Bermuda, Germany, rest of the European Union, Canada, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Markel Insurance, Industrial, Financial, and Consumer and Other segments. The company offers general and professional liability, specialty programs, workers' compensation, and marine and energy insurance; personal lines insurance, such as property coverage for homeowners; property insurance coverages, including fire, windstorm, hail, water damage, and catastrophe-exposed property risks, such as earthquake and wind; and credit and surety products. It also distributes exterior building products, such as siding, windows, doors, roofing, and gutters; invests in asset and wealth management companies; engages in the homebuilding of single-family homes, townhouses, and condominiums; designs and provides leather handbags and accessories; owns and operates manufactured housing communities; and sponsors teachers for placement. In addition, the company offers structural and architectural precast concrete; ornamental plants; industrial bakery equipment; over-the-road car-hauling equipment, such as trailers; cutter suction and auger dredges; and laminated oak and composite flooring for trailers. Further, it provides fire protection, life safety, and low-voltage solutions; heavy lift crawler cranes; erosion control and stormwater management; gas containment and transportation equipment; wall panel systems and dorm room furniture; insurance-linked securities investment and insurance management; equipment leasing; fronting and automobile collateral protection coverage; information technology consulting; data collection and pricing intelligence solutions; and concierge healthcare membership services. The company was formerly known as Markel Corporation and changed its name to Markel Group Inc. in May 2023. Markel Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.
Who would buy MKL?
Consensus 23/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 7 7
Endorses
· 1 framework- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive100/100
P/B < 1.5 1.25× clears "< 1.50×".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100
ROE > 20% is 10.0% — fails "> 20.0%".
- Philip Fisher
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 45/100
2 insiders sold $3.5M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 6,738 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a cheap or stressed name is a more meaningful negative than on a compounder — the people closest to the business are not voting with their wallets. Weigh this against the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEOPOLD DIANE | Director | Open-market buy | May 7, 2026 | 150 | $1791.47 | $269K | — |
| PUCKETT A LYNNE | Director | Open-market buy | May 1, 2026 | 57 | $1795.53 | $102K | Indirect |
| WILSON SIMON | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 26, 2026 | 100 | $2079.48 | $208K | Direct |
| GAYNER THOMAS SINNICKSON | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 4,483 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CROWLEY ANDREW G. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 830 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GRANDIS MEADE P | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 69 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WILSON SIMON | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 868 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GRINNAN RICHARD RANDOLPH | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 800 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| COSTANZO BRIAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 654 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MARKEL STEVEN ANDREW | Director | Open-market sell | Dec 11, 2025 | 1,330 | $2119.12 | $2.82M | Direct |
| MARKEL STEVEN ANDREW | Director | Open-market sell | Nov 28, 2025 | 170 | $2100.00 | $357K | Direct |
| WILSON SIMON | Officer | Open-market sell | Nov 25, 2025 | 75 | $2072.93 | $155K | Direct |
| MARKEL STEVEN ANDREW | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Nov 17, 2025 | 500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.4% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +6,738 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.
What would MKL do to your portfolio?
Add Markel Group Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
MKL is currently tagged:ValueFails criteria (23/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Markel Group Inc. · MKL
MKL: 46% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: D/E 0.23. Main risk to monitor: 7% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
46%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-10.6% → +25.4%
mid +7.4% / yr
Downside (p20)
-13.1%
stress -26.1%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 49/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.
Composite
49
/ 100
Deep valueval.
54/ 100
P/B 1.25× · FCF yield -4.4%
Margin of safetyval.
53/ 100
7% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$2240.69
+3.9% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from -10%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$1723.60
-1.4% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. -10% operating margin and -17% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Markel Group Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | MKL | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 11.2× | 8.5× | 11.5× |
| P/B | 1.25× | 1.70× | 1.20× | 1.30× |
| Dividend yield | — | 4.60% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| ROE | 10.0% |
Earnings reaction explainer
MKL missed materially — -19.9% below consensus.
Reported EPS $23.55 vs $29.41 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: -9.7%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Tue, Apr 28 · consensus EPS $29.41 · last actual $23.55
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.79
P/B Ratio
1.25
EPS Growth
N/A
Revenue Growth
-16.9%
Debt / Equity
0.23
Net Cash / Share
$105.79
Return on Equity
10.0%
Gross Margin
49.3%
Operating Margin
-9.7%
FCF / Share
$-81.60
Current Ratio
3.22