MO
Altria Group, Inc.Consumer DefensiveTobaccoQuality
$70.31 · 15min delay
β 0.52A steady large-cap compounder trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $54.7052-wk high $74.56
Mkt Cap
$117.40B
P/E
—
PEG
1.74
P/B
-36.58
Dividend
6.18%
ROE
—
About the business
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Who would buy MO?
Consensus 50/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
6 6 3
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100
Operating Margin > 20% 62.3% clears "> 20.0%".
- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
Operating Margin > 15% 62.3% clears "> 15.0%".
- Charlie Munger· Munger Elite Quality100/100
Gross Margin > 50% 87.4% clears "> 50.0%".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 40/100
1 insiders sold $1.9M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 271,746 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHITAKER CHARLES N | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 5, 2026 | 27,908 | $67.57 | $1.89M | Direct |
| MCCARTER ROBERT A. III | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 5,767 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NEWMAN HEATHER A | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 11,822 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WHITAKER CHARLES N | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 9,711 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MANCUSO SALVATORE | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 17,166 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BEGLEY JODY L | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 17,166 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GIFFORD WILLIAM F JR | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 26, 2026 | 70,364 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCCARTER ROBERT A. III | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 22,448 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PATTERSON KATIE F. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 1,432 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NEWMAN HEATHER A | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 11,973 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WHITAKER CHARLES N | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 13,534 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MANCUSO SALVATORE | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 25,376 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BEGLEY JODY L | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 22,448 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MUNOZ GEORGE | Director | Option exercise | Feb 13, 2026 | 2,078 | $67.25 | $140K | Direct |
| GIFFORD WILLIAM F JR | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Feb 4, 2026 | 15,700 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MUNOZ GEORGE | Director | Option exercise | Jan 15, 2026 | 9,750 | $61.58 | $600K | Direct |
| NEWMAN HEATHER A | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 9, 2025 | 25,751 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WHITAKER CHARLES N | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 9, 2025 | 17,168 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +271,746 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would MO do to your portfolio?
Add Altria Group, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
MO is currently tagged:QualityPartial match (50/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Altria Group, Inc. · MO
MO: 62% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: 45% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: Big EPS miss (-11%).
Outperform prob.
62%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
+2.1% → +26.1%
mid +14.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-6.2%
stress -12.5%
Data quality
93/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 86/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from ownership.
Composite
86
/ 100
Deep valueval.
84/ 100
FCF yield 7.3%
Margin of safetyval.
100/ 100
45% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$167.18
+18.9% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 62%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$128.60
+12.8% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 62% operating margin and 5% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Altria Group, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Defensive. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | MO | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 18.0× | 15.0× | 17.0× |
| P/B | -36.58× | 3.50× | 2.80× | 3.20× |
| Dividend yield | 6.18% | 3.20% | 2.80% | 2.60% |
| ROE | — |
Earnings reaction explainer
MO missed materially — -11.2% below consensus.
Reported EPS $1.32 vs $1.49 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 62.3%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Jul 30 · consensus EPS $1.49 · last actual $1.32
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Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.74
P/B Ratio
-36.58
EPS Growth
106.3%
Revenue Growth
5.3%
Debt / Equity
N/A
Net Cash / Share
$-12.62
Return on Equity
N/A
Gross Margin
87.4%
Operating Margin
62.3%
FCF / Share
$5.12
Current Ratio
0.62