MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.HealthcareHealthcare PlansIncome
$192.03 · 15min delay
β 0.85A steady large-cap income stock trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $121.0652-wk high $327.68
Mkt Cap
$10.01B
P/E
—
PEG
1.73
P/B
2.45
Dividend
—
ROE
4.5%
About the business
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates in four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Who would buy MOH?
Consensus 14/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 5 9
Endorses
· 1 framework- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income80/100
Payout Ratio < 70% 0.0% clears "< 70.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100
ROE > 20% is 4.5% — fails "> 20.0%".
- Philip Fisher
Insider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 35/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (ZORETIC RICHARD C, $100K). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 141,447 shares.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 14/100) and the archetype read (Income).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOISTMAN FRANCIS S JR | Director | Award / grant | May 6, 2026 | 170 | $197.44 | $34K | Direct |
| GROHOWSKI LEO P | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 405 | $135.82 | $55K | Direct |
| ZORETIC RICHARD C | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 405 | $135.82 | $55K | Indirect |
| SCHAPIRO RICHARD M | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 405 | $135.82 | $55K | Direct |
| LOCKHART STEPHEN H | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 405 | $135.82 | $55K | Direct |
| ROMNEY RONNA E | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 405 | $135.82 | $55K | Indirect |
| BRASIER BARBARA L. | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 405 | $135.82 | $55K | Direct |
| ORLANDO STEVEN J | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 405 | $135.82 | $55K | Indirect |
| WOLF DALE B | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 405 | $135.82 | $55K | Indirect |
| ROMNEY RONNA E | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 12, 2026 | 506 | $146.92 | $74K | Indirect |
| HEBERT MAURICE S | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 2,708 | $147.74 | $400K | Direct |
| KEIM MARK LOWELL | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 26,073 | $145.75 | $3.80M | Direct |
| BACON DEBRA | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 9,606 | $145.75 | $1.40M | Direct |
| ZUBRETSKY JOSEPH M. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 66,417 | $145.75 | $9.68M | Direct |
| BARLOW JEFF D | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 13,722 | $145.75 | $2.00M | Direct |
| WOYS JAMES E | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 17,016 | $145.75 | $2.48M | Direct |
| ZORETIC RICHARD C | Director | Open-market buy | Feb 11, 2026 | 800 | $125.16 | $100K | Indirect |
| GROHOWSKI LEO P | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 317 | $173.54 | $55K | Direct |
| ZORETIC RICHARD C | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 317 | $173.54 | $55K | Indirect |
| SCHAPIRO RICHARD M | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 317 | $173.54 | $55K | Direct |
| LOCKHART STEPHEN H | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 317 | $173.54 | $55K | Direct |
| BACON DEBRA | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 22 | $147.50 | $3K | Direct |
| ROMNEY RONNA E | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 317 | $173.54 | $55K | Indirect |
| BRASIER BARBARA L. | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 317 | $173.54 | $55K | Direct |
| ORLANDO STEVEN J | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 317 | $173.54 | $55K | Indirect |
| WOLF DALE B | Director | Award / grant | Dec 31, 2025 | 317 | $173.54 | $55K | Indirect |
| SCHAPIRO RICHARD M | Director | Open-market sell | Nov 24, 2025 | 357 | $143.02 | $51K | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.5% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +141,447 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A notable drawdown — worth re-reading the framework verdicts below with the cheaper price in mind.
What would MOH do to your portfolio?
Add Molina Healthcare, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
MOH is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (14/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Molina Healthcare, Inc. · MOH
MOH: 51% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: CR 1.63. Main risk to monitor: ROE 4% (weak).
Outperform prob.
51%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-11.4% → +24.6%
mid +6.6% / yr
Downside (p20)
-10.2%
stress -20.4%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 49/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality.
Composite
49
/ 100
Deep valueval.
83/ 100
P/B 2.45× · FCF yield 7.6%
Margin of safetyval.
15/ 100
45% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$171.62
-2.2% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 2%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$132.01
-7.2% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 2% operating margin and -4% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Molina Healthcare, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | MOH | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 24.0× | — | 20.0× |
| P/B | 2.45× | 4.80× | — | 3.80× |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.40% | — | 1.80% |
| ROE | 4.5% |
Earnings reaction explainer
MOH blew past estimates by 57.7%.
Reported EPS $2.35 vs $1.49 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 1.7%.
- Growth investorsPositive
Confirms operating leverage — -95% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
- Quality investorsPositive
If ROE (4%) and operating margin (2%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
- Value investorsNegative
Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 22 · consensus EPS $1.49 · last actual $2.35
Are Investors Undervaluing Molina Healthcare (MOH) Right Now?
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Business Wire · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.73
P/B Ratio
2.45
EPS Growth
-95.0%
Revenue Growth
-4.3%
Debt / Equity
0.97
Net Cash / Share
$101.80
Return on Equity
4.5%
Gross Margin
8.9%
Operating Margin
1.7%
FCF / Share
$14.54
Current Ratio
1.63