MSFT
Microsoft CorporationTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureQuality
$409.26 · 15min delay
β 1.09A high-quality mega-cap compounder trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $356.2852-wk high $555.45
Mkt Cap
$3.04T
P/E
—
PEG
1.29
P/B
7.34
Dividend
0.88%
ROE
34.0%
About the business
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment provides Server products and cloud services comprising Azure and other cloud services, GitHub, Nuance Healthcare, virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; server products, including SQL and windows server, visual studio and system center related client access licenses, and other on-premises offerings; enterprise and partner services, such as enterprise support and nuance professional services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner network, and learning experience. The Personal Computing segment provides windows and devices, such as Windows OEM licensing and devices and surface and PC accessories; gaming services and solutions, such as Xbox hardware, content, and services, first- and third-party content Xbox game pass, subscriptions, and cloud gaming, advertising, and other cloud services; search and news advertising services that includes Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News and Edge, and third-party affiliates. It sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and online and retail stores. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.
Who would buy MSFT?
Consensus 38/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
4 6 5
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100
ROE > 15% 34.0% clears "> 15.0%".
- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 34.0% clears "> 20.0%".
- Philip Fisher· Fisher Growth88/100
Revenue Growth > 15% 18.3% clears "> 15.0%".
Insider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 35/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (STANTON JOHN W., $2.0M). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net sellers by 14,230 shares.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Weak match, score 38/100) and the archetype read (Quality).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOGAN KATHLEEN T | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 6, 2026 | 12,320 | $409.55 | $5.05M | Direct |
| STANTON JOHN W. | Director | Open-market buy | Feb 18, 2026 | 5,000 | $397.35 | $1.99M | Direct |
| LIST TERI | Director | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 145 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MASON MARK A.L. | Director | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 145 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STANTON JOHN W. | Director | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 145 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SCHARF CHARLES W | Director | Award / grant | Jan 30, 2026 | 145 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HOGAN KATHLEEN T | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 10, 2025 | 150 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NUMOTO TAKESHI | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 4, 2025 | 2,850 | $478.72 | $1.36M | Direct |
| LIST TERI | Director | Award / grant | Dec 4, 2025 | 130 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MASON MARK A.L. | Director | Award / grant | Dec 4, 2025 | 130 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STANTON JOHN W. | Director | Award / grant | Dec 4, 2025 | 130 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SCHARF CHARLES W | Director | Award / grant | Dec 4, 2025 | 130 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ALTHOFF JUDSON | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 2, 2025 | 12,750 | $491.52 | $6.27M | Direct |
| ALTHOFF JUDSON | Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Nov 20, 2025 | 3,463 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: -14,230 sh
Price history
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What would MSFT do to your portfolio?
Add Microsoft Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
MSFT is currently tagged:QualityWeak match (38/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Microsoft Corporation · MSFT
MSFT: 53% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 34%. Main risk to monitor: 33% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
53%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-4.3% → +19.7%
mid +7.7% / yr
Downside (p20)
-15.1%
stress -30.2%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 57/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
57
/ 100
Deep valueval.
35/ 100
P/B 7.34× · FCF yield 1.2%
Margin of safetyval.
27/ 100
33% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$400.89
-0.4% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 46%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$308.38
-5.5% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 46% operating margin holds, 18% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Microsoft Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Technology. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | MSFT | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 22.0× | — | 23.0× |
| P/B | 7.34× | 4.00× | — | 4.50× |
| Dividend yield | 0.88% | 1.00% | — | 1.40% |
| ROE | 34.0% |
Earnings reaction explainer
MSFT reported in line with consensus.
Reported EPS $4.27 vs $4.25 expected. With no surprise on the headline, the share-price reaction is usually driven by guidance, KPIs, or commentary on demand. Trailing operating margin: 46.3%.
- All audiencesNeutral
In-line prints transfer the conversation from the headline to the guidance, the segment mix, and management commentary on the demand environment.
What to watch on the next print
- • Segment-level KPIs vs estimates
- • Guidance vs current consensus for the next quarter
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 29 · consensus EPS $4.25 · last actual $4.27
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.29
P/B Ratio
7.34
EPS Growth
23.4%
Revenue Growth
18.3%
Debt / Equity
0.30
Net Cash / Share
$-6.35
Return on Equity
34.0%
Gross Margin
68.3%
Operating Margin
46.3%
FCF / Share
$4.98
Current Ratio
1.28