NKE
NIKE, Inc.Consumer CyclicalFootwear & AccessoriesCyclical
$42.13 · 15min delay
β 1.12A high-quality large-cap cyclical trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $42.0652-wk high $80.17
Mkt Cap
$62.39B
P/E
—
PEG
1.36
P/B
4.43
Dividend
3.87%
ROE
16.0%
About the business
NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company offers its products under the NIKE, Jordan, Jumpman, Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. It also provides a line of performance equipment and accessories, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities, as well as various plastic products to other manufacturers; distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories; and markets apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos. In addition, the company offers consumer services and experiences, including sport focused events and activations; fitness and activity apps; sport, fitness, and wellness content; and digital services and features in retail stores. It sells its products to footwear stores; sporting goods stores; athletic specialty stores; department stores; skate, tennis, and golf shops; and other wholesale accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores, independent distributors, licensees, sales representatives, and digital platforms. The company was formerly known as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc. and changed its name to NIKE, Inc. in May 1971. NIKE, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
Who would buy NKE?
Consensus 13/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 3 11
Endorses
· 1 framework- Cyclical Value School· Deep Cyclical88/100
Down > 30% from 52-wk high -47.4% clears "< -30.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP0/100
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 1.36× — fails "< 1.00×".
Insider activity · Positive
4 insiders bought shares in the open market
Strength 95/100
Over the last ~6 months 4 different insiders made open-market purchases totalling $8.2M, against $6.1M of selling (including planned 10b5-1 disposals). Multi-insider open-market buying is one of the more durable positive signals because it reflects fresh-dollar conviction rather than vesting or diversification. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 9,389,117 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider buying on a cyclical is notable — buying into a potential turn is a classic "they see something in the pipeline" signal, though it can also be early. Combine with operating-momentum and credit indicators.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HILL ELLIOTT | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market buy | Apr 13, 2026 | 23,660 | $42.27 | $1.00M | Direct |
| HILL ELLIOTT | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market buy | Apr 13, 2026 | 23,660 | $42.27 | $1.00M | Direct |
| COOK TIMOTHY D | Director | Open-market buy | Apr 10, 2026 | 25,000 | $42.43 | $1.06M | Direct |
| ROGERS JOHN W JR | Director | Open-market buy | Apr 9, 2026 | 4,000 | $43.34 | $173K | Direct |
| SWAN ROBERT HOLMES | Director | Open-market buy | Apr 7, 2026 | 11,781 | $42.44 | $500K | Direct |
| LEINWAND ROBERT | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 12, 2026 | 9,065 | $62.33 | $565K | Direct |
| KNIGHT PHILIP H | Divisional Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Feb 11, 2026 | 4,500,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KNIGHT PHILIP H | Divisional Officer | Transaction | Feb 2, 2026 | 4,500,000 | — | — | Direct |
| HILL ELLIOTT | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market buy | Dec 29, 2025 | 16,388 | $61.10 | $1.00M | Direct |
| COOK TIMOTHY D | Director | Open-market buy | Dec 22, 2025 | 50,000 | $58.97 | $2.95M | Direct |
| SWAN ROBERT HOLMES | Director | Open-market buy | Dec 22, 2025 | 8,691 | $57.54 | $500K | Direct |
| FRIEND MATTHEW | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 31,216 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LEINWAND ROBERT | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 31,216 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HEINLE TREASURE | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 31,216 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MONTAGNE AMY | President | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 31,216 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCCARTNEY PHILIP | Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 31,216 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ALAGIRISAMY VENKATESH | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 36,645 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HILL ELLIOTT | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Dec 10, 2025 | 117,060 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PARKER MARK G | Officer and Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Nov 14, 2025 | 11,295 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PARKER MARK G | Officer and Director | Open-market sell | Nov 14, 2025 | 86,078 | $64.80 | $5.58M | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.5% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +9,389,117 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.
What would NKE do to your portfolio?
Add NIKE, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
NKE is currently tagged:CyclicalFails criteria (13/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
NIKE, Inc. · NKE
NKE: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: 5 insiders buying. Main risk to monitor: 97% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
48%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-13.6% → +22.4%
mid +4.4% / yr
Downside (p20)
-13.5%
stress -27.0%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 45/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation.
Composite
45
/ 100
Deep valueval.
55/ 100
P/B 4.43× · FCF yield 2.1%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
97% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$27.86
-7.9% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 7%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$21.43
-12.6% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 7% operating margin holds, 0% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
NIKE, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | NKE | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 4.43× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | 3.87% | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | 16.0% |
Earnings reaction explainer
NKE blew past estimates by 195.2%.
Reported EPS $0.35 vs $0.12 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 6.9%.
- Growth investorsPositive
Confirms operating leverage — -35% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
- Quality investorsPositive
If ROE (16%) and operating margin (7%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
- Value investorsNeutral
A blow-out can pull future quarters forward — value investors will look for sustained margin, not a single-quarter spike.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Jun 25 · consensus EPS $0.12 · last actual $0.35
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.36
P/B Ratio
4.43
EPS Growth
-34.8%
Revenue Growth
0.1%
Debt / Equity
0.79
Net Cash / Share
$-2.60
Return on Equity
16.0%
Gross Margin
40.9%
Operating Margin
6.9%
FCF / Share
$1.10
Current Ratio
2.14