NVDA
NVIDIA CorporationTechnologySemiconductorsRisk-First
$217.60 · 15min delay
β 2.24A high-quality mega-cap risk-flagged situation trading at a discounted valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $124.4752-wk high $223.75
Mkt Cap
$5.29T
P/E
—
PEG
0.68
P/B
33.62
Dividend
0.02%
ROE
101.5%
About the business
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company. The company operates through two segments, Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. The company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants worldwide. It has a collaboration with Tech Mahindra Limited to develop artificial intelligence powered telco network operations reasoning agent. The company has a strategic partnership with Lumentum Holdings Inc. to develop optics technologies for AI and data centers. It also has a strategic partnership with Nebius Group N.V. to develop and deploy hyperscale cloud for the artificial intelligence market; and has a strategic partnership with IREN Limited to accelerate deployment of up to 5 gigawatts of infrastructure. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Who would buy NVDA?
Consensus 62/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
8 6 1
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100
ROE > 15% 101.5% clears "> 15.0%".
- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 101.5% clears "> 20.0%".
- Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First100/100
Debt/Equity < 0.5 0.07 clears "< 0.50".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 70/100
9 insiders sold $489.8M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 58,780,213 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Partial match).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRESS COLETTE M. | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 20, 2026 | 62,650 | $174.89 | $10.96M | — |
| ROBERTSON DONALD F JR | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 20, 2026 | 5,396 | $174.75 | $943K | Direct |
| STEVENS MARK A | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 20, 2026 | 221,682 | $173.68 | $38.50M | Indirect |
| SHAH AARTI S | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 19, 2026 | 19,000 | $176.71 | $3.36M | Direct |
| PURI AJAY K | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 18, 2026 | 300,000 | $182.25 | $54.68M | Indirect |
| HUANG JEN-HSUN | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Mar 18, 2026 | 58,962,602 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| SEAWELL A BROOKE | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Mar 17, 2026 | 530 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DABIRI JOHN O | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 13, 2026 | 3,004 | $184.90 | $555K | Direct |
| PURI AJAY K | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 10, 2026 | 300,000 | $182.52 | $54.76M | Indirect |
| KRESS COLETTE M. | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 47,048 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| TETER TIMOTHY S | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 47,048 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SHOQUIST DEBORA C | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 47,048 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PURI AJAY K | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 9, 2026 | 47,048 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KRESS COLETTE M. | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 106,660 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| TETER TIMOTHY S | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 98,328 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SHOQUIST DEBORA C | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 98,328 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PURI AJAY K | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 103,278 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HUANG JEN-HSUN | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 2, 2026 | 936,771 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KRESS COLETTE M. | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 4, 2026 | 47,640 | $175.72 | $8.37M | — |
| PURI AJAY K | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 21, 2026 | 200,000 | $180.04 | $36.01M | Indirect |
| KRESS COLETTE M. | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 13, 2026 | 47,640 | $184.92 | $8.81M | — |
| PURI AJAY K | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 7, 2026 | 200,000 | $187.82 | $37.56M | Indirect |
| ROBERTSON DONALD F JR | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 2, 2026 | 80,000 | $189.85 | $15.19M | Direct |
| ROBERTSON DONALD F JR | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 19, 2025 | 24,590 | $179.98 | $4.43M | Direct |
| STEVENS MARK A | Director | Open-market sell | Dec 19, 2025 | 222,500 | $180.17 | $40.09M | Indirect |
| STEVENS MARK A | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 18, 2025 | 258,650 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| KRESS COLETTE M. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 17, 2025 | 113,182 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HUANG JEN-HSUN | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 17, 2025 | 141,488 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| JONES HARVEY C JR. | Director | Open-market sell | Dec 15, 2025 | 250,000 | $177.33 | $44.33M | Indirect |
| KRESS COLETTE M. | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 12, 2025 | 50,500 | $178.11 | $8.99M | — |
| SHOQUIST DEBORA C | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 12, 2025 | 229,840 | $180.19 | $41.41M | Indirect |
| SHOQUIST DEBORA C | Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 9, 2025 | 80,000 | $184.65 | $14.77M | Indirect |
| STEVENS MARK A | Director | Open-market sell | Dec 5, 2025 | 350,000 | $181.73 | $63.60M | Indirect |
| SEAWELL A BROOKE | Director | Open-market sell | Dec 2, 2025 | 12,728 | $183.93 | $2.34M | Indirect |
| DABIRI JOHN O | Director | Open-market sell | Nov 24, 2025 | 626 | $179.42 | $112K | Direct |
| SEAWELL A BROOKE | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Nov 24, 2025 | 520,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 4.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +58,780,213 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would NVDA do to your portfolio?
Add NVIDIA Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
NVDA is currently tagged:Risk-FirstPartial match (62/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
NVIDIA Corporation · NVDA
NVDA: 52% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 101%. Main risk to monitor: 117% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
52%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-3.3% → +20.7%
mid +8.7% / yr
Downside (p20)
-28.9%
stress -55.0%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 57/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
57
/ 100
Deep valueval.
23/ 100
P/B 33.62× · FCF yield 1.1%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
117% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$130.63
-9.7% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 65%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$100.49
-14.3% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 65% operating margin holds, 73% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
NVIDIA Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Technology. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | NVDA | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 22.0× | — | 23.0× |
| P/B | 33.62× | 4.00× | — | 4.50× |
| Dividend yield | 0.02% | 1.00% | — | 1.40% |
| ROE | 101.5% |
Earnings reaction explainer
NVDA missed by -8.7%.
Reported EPS $1.62 vs $1.77 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 65.0%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, May 20 · consensus EPS $1.77 · last actual $1.62
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to Reportedly Miss Trump's China Trip
MT Newswires · just now
Wells Fargo Hikes NVIDIA Price Target to $315 Ahead of Earnings: Is the AI King Still Cheap at 20x P/E?
24/7 Wall St. · just now
Susquehanna Adjusts Price Target on Nvidia to $275 From $250, Maintains Positive Rating
MT Newswires · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.68
P/B Ratio
33.62
EPS Growth
95.6%
Revenue Growth
73.2%
Debt / Equity
0.07
Net Cash / Share
$2.10
Return on Equity
101.5%
Gross Margin
71.1%
Operating Margin
65.0%
FCF / Share
$2.39
Current Ratio
3.90