OXY
Occidental Petroleum CorporationEnergyOil & Gas E&PRisk-First
$56.19 · 15min delay
β 0.17A steady large-cap risk-flagged situation trading near fair value. Most frameworks reject it today.
52-wk low $38.8052-wk high $67.45
Mkt Cap
$55.89B
P/E
—
PEG
1.24
P/B
1.82
Dividend
1.89%
ROE
4.1%
About the business
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Who would buy OXY?
Consensus 13/100 · Aligned · Investors mostly agree.
0 8 7
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- AQR / Asness· Quality Factor71/100
Gross Margin > 35% 69.8% clears "> 35.0%".
- Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First67/100
Debt/Equity < 0.5 0.42 clears "< 0.50".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Benjamin Graham
Insider activity · Mixed
Open-market buying concentrated in one insider
Strength 45/100
Buying is limited to a single filer (KLESSE WILLIAM ROBERT, $195K). Single-insider buys are worth noting but carry less weight than broad-based conviction — they can reflect an outlier view rather than a shared read inside the C-suite. Over the 6M window, insiders are net sellers by 29,522,084 shares.
- Buying concentrated in one filer — lower conviction signal.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Fails criteria, score 13/100) and the archetype read (Risk-First).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLESSE WILLIAM ROBERT | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 4,149 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GOULD ANDREW FREDERIC JAMES | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 4,978 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROBINSON KENNETH B. | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 4,149 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ONEILL CLAIRE | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 3,734 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BAILEY VICKY A | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 3,734 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOORE JACK B | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 6,720 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| POLADIAN AVEDICK BARUYR | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 4,149 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GUTIERREZ CARLOS M. | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 3,734 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SHEARER BOB | Director | Award / grant | May 4, 2026 | 3,734 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| POLADIAN AVEDICK BARUYR | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Apr 14, 2026 | 15,000 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DILLON KENNETH | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 27,883 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PETERSON ROBERT L | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 24,115 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JACKSON RICHARD A. | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 37,679 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SIMMONS JEFF F | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 24,115 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MATHEW SUNIL | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 26,376 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KERRIGAN SYLVIA J | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 48,983 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HOLLUB VICKI A. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 94,198 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CHAMPION CHRISTOPHER O | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 27, 2026 | 13,565 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DILLON KENNETH | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 18,393 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PETERSON ROBERT L | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 16,817 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JACKSON RICHARD A. | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 18,393 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HOLLUB VICKI A. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 59,121 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CHAMPION CHRISTOPHER O | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 18, 2026 | 9,197 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KLESSE WILLIAM ROBERT | Director | Open-market buy | Dec 16, 2025 | 5,000 | $38.98 | $195K | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 26.9% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: -29,522,084 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would OXY do to your portfolio?
Add Occidental Petroleum Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
OXY is currently tagged:Risk-FirstFails criteria (13/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Occidental Petroleum Corporation · OXY
OXY: 52% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: 5 tracked holders · peak 36.5%. Main risk to monitor: 58% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
52%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-4.4% → +19.6%
mid +7.6% / yr
Downside (p20)
-2.1%
stress -4.1%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 61/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation.
Composite
61
/ 100
Deep valueval.
80/ 100
P/B 1.82× · FCF yield 5.4%
Margin of safetyval.
2/ 100
58% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$46.30
-3.8% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 18%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$35.61
-8.7% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 18% operating margin and -8% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Occidental Petroleum Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Energy. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | OXY | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 14.8× | — | 9.0× |
| P/B | 1.82× | 2.60× | — | 1.20× |
| Dividend yield | 1.89% | 5.20% | — | 5.50% |
| ROE | 4.1% |
Earnings reaction explainer
OXY missed materially — -29.5% below consensus.
Reported EPS $1.06 vs $1.50 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 17.7%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Aug 5 · consensus EPS $1.50 · last actual $1.06
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
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Better Oil Stock: Occidental Petroleum vs. Energy Transfer
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Inspira Technologies CEO Issues Letter to Shareholders on Strategic Direction and Value Creation Plan
GlobeNewswire · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.24
P/B Ratio
1.82
EPS Growth
315.6%
Revenue Growth
-8.3%
Debt / Equity
0.42
Net Cash / Share
$-12.87
Return on Equity
4.1%
Gross Margin
69.8%
Operating Margin
17.7%
FCF / Share
$3.05
Current Ratio
1.21