PDD
PDD Holdings Inc.Consumer CyclicalInternet RetailRisk-First
$95.74 · 15min delay
β 0.03A high-quality large-cap risk-flagged situation trading at a discounted valuation.
52-wk low $95.2452-wk high $139.41
Mkt Cap
$136.28B
P/E
—
PEG
0.71
P/B
2.24
Dividend
—
ROE
26.9%
About the business
PDD Holdings Inc., a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The company operates Pinduoduo platform, which provides various product categories and interactive shopping experiences; and Temu, an online platform, which enables merchants to streamline their manufacturing and commercial operations. The company was formerly known as Pinduoduo Inc. and changed its name to PDD Holdings Inc. in February 2023. PDD Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
Who would buy PDD?
Consensus 54/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
6 7 2
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100
ROE > 15% 26.9% clears "> 15.0%".
- Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First100/100
Debt/Equity < 0.5 0.01 clears "< 0.50".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income100/100
Payout Ratio < 70% 0.0% clears "< 70.0%".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 45/100
2 insiders sold $208K on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it.
- Data is partial — fewer than 5 reported transactions.
- Very small sample (<3 transactions in window).
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Partial match).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAM ANTHONY PING LEUNG | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 30, 2026 | 1,533 | $99.43 | $152K | Direct |
| RIETJENS IVONNE M.C.M. | Director | Open-market sell | Mar 30, 2026 | 560 | $99.59 | $56K | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
—
Loading…
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A notable drawdown — worth re-reading the framework verdicts below with the cheaper price in mind.
What would PDD do to your portfolio?
Add PDD Holdings Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
PDD is currently tagged:Risk-FirstPartial match (54/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
PDD Holdings Inc. · PDD
PDD: 59% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: 85% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: Near 52w lows (1%).
Outperform prob.
59%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
+1.9% → +25.9%
mid +13.9% / yr
Downside (p20)
-4.4%
stress -8.8%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 82/100. Strongest contribution from valuation; weakest from ownership. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.
Composite
82
/ 100
Deep valueval.
92/ 100
P/B 2.24× · FCF yield 62.8%
Margin of safetyval.
100/ 100
85% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$826.43
+53.9% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 21%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$635.71
+46.0% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 21% operating margin holds, 12% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
PDD Holdings Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | PDD | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 2.24× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | 26.9% |
Earnings reaction explainer
PDD beat by 8.1%.
Reported EPS $17.69 vs $16.37 expected — a routine beat. Read the rest of the print (guidance, margins, segment mix) before assuming the multiple should expand. Trailing operating margin: 21.1%.
- Quality investorsPositive
A routine beat with stable margins is the textbook compounder pattern — nothing changes in the thesis.
- Value investorsNeutral
Whether the beat matters depends on entry multiple. P/E — sets the bar.
- Growth investorsNeutral
Positive but unremarkable — guidance and KPI commentary will move the stock more than the beat itself.
What to watch on the next print
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, May 27 · consensus EPS $16.37 · last actual $17.69
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.71
P/B Ratio
2.24
EPS Growth
-16.4%
Revenue Growth
12.0%
Debt / Equity
0.01
Net Cash / Share
$292.91
Return on Equity
26.9%
Gross Margin
56.3%
Operating Margin
21.1%
FCF / Share
$60.16
Current Ratio
2.43