PM
Philip Morris International Inc.Consumer DefensiveTobaccoQuality
$189.87 · 15min delay
β 0.39A steady mega-cap compounder trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $142.1152-wk high $191.30
Mkt Cap
$295.92B
P/E
—
PEG
1.95
P/B
-29.57
Dividend
3.23%
ROE
—
About the business
Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Who would buy PM?
Consensus 36/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
4 6 5
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100
Operating Margin > 20% 36.0% clears "> 20.0%".
- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
Operating Margin > 15% 36.0% clears "> 15.0%".
- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive80/100
P/B < 1.5 -29.57× clears "< 1.50×".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 65/100
6 insiders sold $28.8M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 184,029 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMBES MICHEL | Director | Award / grant | May 6, 2026 | 1,119 | $169.93 | $190K | Direct |
| BOUGH BONIN | Director | Award / grant | May 6, 2026 | 1,119 | $169.93 | $190K | Direct |
| MORPARIA KALPANA | Director | Award / grant | May 6, 2026 | 1,119 | $169.93 | $190K | Direct |
| YANAI SHLOMO | Director | Award / grant | May 6, 2026 | 1,119 | $169.93 | $190K | Direct |
| POLET ROBERT | Director | Award / grant | May 6, 2026 | 1,119 | $169.93 | $190K | Direct |
| DOBROWOLSKI REGINALDO | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 20, 2026 | 6,000 | $183.48 | $1.10M | — |
| KENNEDY STACEY | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 20, 2026 | 14,350 | $183.13 | $2.63M | Direct |
| GUERIN YANN | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 19, 2026 | 4,000 | $181.69 | $727K | Direct |
| BABEAU EMMANUEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 19, 2026 | 33,800 | $181.61 | $6.14M | Direct |
| OLCZAK JACEK | Officer and Director | Open-market sell | Feb 19, 2026 | 80,000 | $182.18 | $14.57M | Direct |
| DE WILDE FREDERIC J | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 19, 2026 | 20,000 | $182.58 | $3.65M | Direct |
| KENNEDY STACEY | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 16,210 | $47.26 | $766K | Direct |
| DOBROWOLSKI REGINALDO | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 6,538 | $71.41 | $467K | — |
| GUERIN YANN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 8,280 | $105.47 | $873K | Direct |
| BABEAU EMMANUEL | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 61,386 | $31.95 | $1.96M | Direct |
| DE WILDE FREDERIC J | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 33,079 | $55.62 | $1.84M | Direct |
| OLCZAK JACEK | Officer and Director | Award / grant | Feb 6, 2026 | 171,039 | $33.83 | $5.79M | Direct |
| CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE | Chairman of the Board | Award / grant | Feb 5, 2026 | 40,052 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +184,029 sh
Price history
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What would PM do to your portfolio?
Add Philip Morris International Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
PM is currently tagged:QualityWeak match (36/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Philip Morris International Inc. · PM
PM: 47% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: 97% through 52w range. Main risk to monitor: 144% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
47%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-6.8% → +17.2%
mid +5.2% / yr
Downside (p20)
-8.7%
stress -17.4%
Data quality
93/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 55/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.
Composite
55
/ 100
Deep valueval.
57/ 100
FCF yield 2.9%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
144% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$101.16
-11.8% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 36%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$77.81
-16.3% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 36% operating margin and 9% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Philip Morris International Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Defensive. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | PM | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 18.0× | 15.0× | 17.0× |
| P/B | -29.57× | 3.50× | 2.80× | 3.20× |
| Dividend yield | 3.23% | 3.20% | 2.80% | 2.60% |
| ROE |
Earnings reaction explainer
PM missed by -4.0%.
Reported EPS $1.96 vs $2.04 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 36.0%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Already cheap; the question is whether the deterioration is cyclical (digestible) or structural (avoid).
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 22 · consensus EPS $2.04 · last actual $1.96
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.95
P/B Ratio
-29.57
EPS Growth
-9.3%
Revenue Growth
9.1%
Debt / Equity
N/A
Net Cash / Share
$-29.84
Return on Equity
N/A
Gross Margin
67.3%
Operating Margin
36.0%
FCF / Share
$5.50
Current Ratio
0.98