QSR
Restaurant Brands International Inc.Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsMomentum
$78.50 · 15min delay
β 0.55A high-quality large-cap momentum story trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $61.3352-wk high $81.96
Mkt Cap
$35.82B
P/E
—
PEG
0.94
P/B
7.48
Dividend
3.32%
ROE
28.1%
About the business
Restaurant Brands International Inc. operates as a quick service restaurant company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through six segments: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Firehouse Subs, International, and Restaurant Holdings. The company owns and franchises Tim Hortons, a coffee and baked good restaurant chain that offers beverages, sandwiches, wraps, flatbread pizzas, and others; Burger King, a quick service hamburger restaurant chain that offers flame-grilled hamburgers, chicken, and other sandwiches; Popeyes, a quick service chicken concept that offers a Louisiana style menu, including fried bone-in chicken, chicken sandwiches, chicken tenders, wings, fried shrimp, and regional items; and Firehouse Subs, which offers subs with meats and cheese, as well as chili, soups, soft drinks, and other sides. Restaurant Brands International Inc. was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Who would buy QSR?
Consensus 17/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
0 8 7
Endorses
· 2 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula75/100
ROE > 20% 28.1% clears "> 20.0%".
- William O'Neil· Momentum / CAN SLIM75/100
Within 15% of 52-wk high -4.2% clears "> -15.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Walter Schloss
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 70/100
10 insiders sold $37.3M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 275,138 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSMAN JEFFREY | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 20, 2026 | 20,000 | $73.48 | $1.47M | Direct |
| HOUSMAN JEFFREY | Officer | Option exercise | Mar 20, 2026 | 20,000 | $55.55 | $1.11M | Direct |
| KOBZA JOSHUA | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 18, 2026 | 200,000 | $75.05 | $15.01M | Direct |
| GRANAT JILL M | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Mar 18, 2026 | 50,000 | $74.92 | $3.75M | Direct |
| GRANAT JILL M | General Counsel | Option exercise | Mar 18, 2026 | 50,000 | $56.92 | $2.85M | Direct |
| KOBZA JOSHUA | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Mar 18, 2026 | 200,000 | $56.92 | $11.38M | Direct |
| SIDDIQUI SAMI A | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 17, 2026 | 80,000 | $74.90 | $5.99M | Direct |
| SANTELMO THIAGO TEMER | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 17, 2026 | 10,000 | $75.41 | $754K | Direct |
| SANTELMO THIAGO TEMER | Officer | Option exercise | Mar 17, 2026 | 10,000 | $55.55 | $556K | Direct |
| SIDDIQUI SAMI A | Chief Financial Officer | Option exercise | Mar 17, 2026 | 80,000 | $55.55 | $4.44M | Direct |
| FRIESNER JACQUELINE | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 16, 2026 | 30,000 | $74.61 | $2.24M | Direct |
| FRIESNER JACQUELINE | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 1,526 | $68.81 | $105K | Direct |
| GRANAT JILL M | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 2,719 | $68.81 | $187K | Direct |
| GRANAT JILL M | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 3,719 | $68.81 | $256K | Direct |
| KOBZA JOSHUA | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 8,149 | $68.81 | $561K | Direct |
| SCHWAN AXEL MR | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 2,498 | $68.81 | $172K | Direct |
| CURTIS THOMAS BENJAMIN IV | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 2,055 | $68.81 | $141K | Direct |
| SIDDIQUI SAMI A | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 3,843 | $68.81 | $264K | Direct |
| HOUSMAN JEFFREY | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 2,115 | $68.81 | $146K | Direct |
| FULTON DUNCAN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 1,540 | $68.78 | $106K | Direct |
| SANTELMO THIAGO TEMER | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 4,493 | $68.81 | $309K | Direct |
| SANTELMO THIAGO TEMER | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 4,601 | $68.81 | $317K | Direct |
| PERDUE PETER DARRELL | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 25, 2026 | 721 | $68.81 | $50K | Direct |
| CURTIS THOMAS BENJAMIN IV | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 15,410 | $67.51 | $1.04M | Direct |
| SIDDIQUI SAMI A | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 12,828 | $67.51 | $866K | Direct |
| SCHWAN AXEL MR | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 34,938 | $67.51 | $2.36M | Direct |
| HOUSMAN JEFFREY | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 7,705 | $67.51 | $520K | Direct |
| FULTON DUNCAN | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 10,307 | $67.52 | $696K | Direct |
| SANTELMO THIAGO TEMER | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 5,686 | $67.51 | $384K | Direct |
| PERDUE PETER DARRELL | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 3,882 | $67.51 | $262K | Direct |
| FRIESNER JACQUELINE | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 4,616 | $67.52 | $312K | Direct |
| GRANAT JILL M | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Feb 23, 2026 | 11,524 | $67.52 | $778K | Direct |
| FRIESNER JACQUELINE | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 11,748 | — | — | Direct |
| GRANAT JILL M | General Counsel | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 29,371 | — | — | Direct |
| HOUSMAN JEFFREY | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 19,580 | — | — | Direct |
| FULTON DUNCAN | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 19,256 | — | — | Direct |
| SANTELMO THIAGO TEMER | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 15,664 | — | — | Direct |
| PERDUE PETER DARRELL | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 9,790 | — | — | Direct |
| CURTIS THOMAS BENJAMIN IV | Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 39,161 | — | — | Direct |
| SIDDIQUI SAMI A | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Feb 20, 2026 | 32,634 | — | — | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +275,138 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week highs despite weak framework scores — market enthusiasm is running ahead of the fundamentals most legends look at.
What would QSR do to your portfolio?
Add Restaurant Brands International Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
QSR is currently tagged:MomentumFails criteria (17/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Restaurant Brands International Inc. · QSR
QSR: 48% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: ROE 28%. Main risk to monitor: D/E 2.96 (heavy).
Outperform prob.
48%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-1.9% → +22.1%
mid +10.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-11.6%
stress -23.1%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 56/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.
Composite
56
/ 100
Deep valueval.
44/ 100
P/B 7.48× · FCF yield 4.6%
Margin of safetyval.
48/ 100
12% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$90.95
+3.0% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 26%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$69.96
-2.3% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 26% operating margin holds, 7% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Restaurant Brands International Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | QSR | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 17.5× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 7.48× | 2.40× | — | 2.00× |
| Dividend yield | 3.32% | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| ROE | 28.1% |
Earnings reaction explainer
QSR missed materially — -17.6% below consensus.
Reported EPS $0.86 vs $1.04 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 25.9%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Aug 6 · consensus EPS $1.04 · last actual $0.86
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.94
P/B Ratio
7.48
EPS Growth
100.0%
Revenue Growth
7.3%
Debt / Equity
2.96
Net Cash / Share
$-42.26
Return on Equity
28.1%
Gross Margin
33.9%
Operating Margin
25.9%
FCF / Share
$4.76
Current Ratio
0.99