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RSG logo

RSG

Republic Services, Inc.
IndustrialsWaste ManagementIncome
$203.91 · 15min delay
β 0.44

A high-quality large-cap income stock trading at a premium valuation.

Download report

52-wk low $196.4152-wk high $258.75

Mkt Cap

$62.74B

P/E

—

PEG

2.88

P/B

5.25

Dividend

1.26%

ROE

18.3%

About the business

Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the collection and processing of recyclable, solid waste, and industrial waste materials; transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste streams; and other environmental solutions. Its residential collection services include curbside collection of material for transport to transfer stations, landfills, recycling centers, and organics processing facilities; supply of recycling and waste containers; and renting of compactors. The company also engages in the processing and sale of old corrugated containers, old newsprint, aluminum, glass, and other materials; and provision of landfill services. It serves small-container, large-container, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

Who would buy RSG?

Consensus 5/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

0 3 12

Endorses

· 1 framework
  • Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality67/100

    ROE > 15% 18.3% clears "> 15.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP0/100

    PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 2.88× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Charlie Munger
Insider activity · Routine

Activity is dominated by option exercises

Strength 15/100

Recent filings are almost entirely option exercises and awards. These are compensation-driven and do not represent an active view on the stock.

In Prism's context

Prism treats insider activity here as a low-weight input. It neither strengthens nor materially weakens the framework read (Fails criteria).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
BELL JENNIFER LYNNOfficerTransactionMay 1, 2026404——Direct
RODRIGUEZ COURTNEYOfficerTransactionApr 28, 20261,068——Direct
RICHARDSON LARSONOfficerTransactionFeb 27, 2026295——Direct
ARAMBULA JULIAOfficerTransactionFeb 27, 202612——Direct
HODGES AMANDAOfficerTransactionFeb 27, 2026478——Direct
RODRIGUEZ COURTNEYOfficerTransactionFeb 27, 2026485——Direct
BRUMMER GREGGChief Operating OfficerTransactionFeb 27, 2026945——Direct
CARLSEN ELYSEOfficerTransactionFeb 27, 2026219——Direct
VANDER ARK JONATHANChief Executive OfficerTransactionFeb 27, 20263,476——Direct
BALES BRIAN AOfficerTransactionFeb 27, 202624——Direct
DELGHIACCIO BRIAN MChief Financial OfficerTransactionFeb 27, 2026904——Direct
ELLINGSEN CATHARINE D.OfficerTransactionFeb 27, 2026878——Direct
DELGHIACCIO BRIAN MChief Financial OfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 20266,758$0.00$0Direct
HODGES AMANDAOfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 20262,582$0.00$0Direct
RODRIGUEZ COURTNEYOfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 20261,958$0.00$0Direct
BRUMMER GREGGChief Operating OfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 20263,050$0.00$0Direct
CARLSEN ELYSEOfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 202627$0.00$0Direct
RICHARDSON LARSONOfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 20262,366$0.00$0Direct
ARAMBULA JULIAOfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 20263,050$0.00$0Direct
BELL JENNIFER LYNNOfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 2026647$0.00$0Direct
ELLINGSEN CATHARINE D.OfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 20264,457$0.00$0Direct
VANDER ARK JONATHANChief Executive OfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 202623,456$0.00$0Direct
BALES BRIAN AOfficerAward / grantFeb 19, 202699$0.00$0Direct
ARAMBULA JULIAOfficerTransactionFeb 18, 2026242——Direct
HODGES AMANDAOfficerTransactionFeb 18, 2026309——Direct
RODRIGUEZ COURTNEYOfficerTransactionFeb 18, 2026264——Direct
BRUMMER GREGGChief Operating OfficerTransactionFeb 18, 2026463——Direct
CARLSEN ELYSEOfficerTransactionFeb 18, 20268——Direct
RICHARDSON LARSONOfficerTransactionFeb 18, 2026231——Direct
VANDER ARK JONATHANChief Executive OfficerTransactionFeb 18, 20262,387——Direct
BALES BRIAN AOfficerTransactionFeb 18, 20269——Direct
DELGHIACCIO BRIAN MChief Financial OfficerTransactionFeb 18, 2026563——Direct
ELLINGSEN CATHARINE D.OfficerTransactionFeb 18, 2026419——Direct
ARAMBULA JULIAOfficerTransactionFeb 17, 202620——Direct
HODGES AMANDAOfficerTransactionFeb 17, 2026649——Direct
BRUMMER GREGGChief Operating OfficerTransactionFeb 17, 2026392——Direct
CARLSEN ELYSEOfficerTransactionFeb 17, 2026145——Direct
RICHARDSON LARSONOfficerTransactionFeb 17, 202668——Direct
VANDER ARK JONATHANChief Executive OfficerTransactionFeb 17, 20264,511——Direct
BALES BRIAN AOfficerTransactionFeb 17, 202626——Direct

Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +0 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

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What would RSG do to your portfolio?

Add Republic Services, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

RSG is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (5/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Republic Services, Inc. · RSG

RSG: 45% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (medium confidence). Strongest support: ROE 18%. Main risk to monitor: 124% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
45%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-5.3% → +18.7%
mid +6.7% / yr
Downside (p20)
-7.3%
stress -14.5%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 45/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.

Composite
45
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
52/ 100

P/B 5.25× · FCF yield 2.9%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

124% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~25%
$118.57
-10.3% / yr (5y)

Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 20%
  • • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%
$91.21
-14.9% / yr (5y)

Business continues to compound at recent rates — 20% operating margin holds, 3% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.

Global value comparison

Republic Services, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricRSGGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—15.5×13.0×16.0×
P/B5.25×2.00×1.70×2.40×
Dividend yield1.26%3.00%2.60%2.20%
ROE18.3%
Earnings reaction explainer

RSG missed by -7.2%.

Miss· -7.2%

Reported EPS $1.70 vs $1.83 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 20.2%.

  • Quality investorsNegative

    A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.

  • Growth investorsNegative

    Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.

  • Value investorsNeutral

    Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.

News & events

Next earnings

Tue, Jul 28 · consensus EPS $1.83 · last actual $1.70

  • UBS Adjusts Republic Services Price Target to $223 From $240, Maintains Neutral Rating

    MT Newswires · just now

  • 3 S&P 500 Stocks That Fall Short

    StockStory · just now

  • Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Republic Services to $247 From $253, Maintains Buy Rating

    MT Newswires · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

2.88

P/B Ratio

5.25

EPS Growth

7.5%

Revenue Growth

2.6%

Debt / Equity

1.18

Net Cash / Share

$-45.40

Return on Equity

18.3%

Gross Margin

43.0%

Operating Margin

20.2%

FCF / Share

$5.88

Current Ratio

0.67

· Munger Elite Quality
0/100

ROE > 25% (elite) is 18.3% — fails "> 25.0%".

  • Walter Schloss· Schloss Deep Value0/100

    P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 5.25× — fails "< 1.00×".

    • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    45/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 1 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationnegative

      Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

      124% above fair valueReverse DCF: aggressive expectations
      17
      /100
    • Qualitypositive

      Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.

      ROE 18%Op margin 20%
      75
      /100
    • Balance sheetnegative

      Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.

      CR 0.67 (tight)
      40
      /100
    • Momentumnegative

      Price has been weak — momentum is a headwind.

      Near 52w lows (12%)
      40
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      1 tracked holders · peak 16.1%
      54
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsnegative

      Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.

      EPS miss (-7%)1 medium-severity flag
      38
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • ROE 18%
    • • Op margin 20%
    Key risks
    • • 124% above fair value
    • • Reverse DCF: aggressive expectations
    • • CR 0.67 (tight)
    • • Near 52w lows (12%)
    • • EPS miss (-7%)
    • • Possible quality trap (paying up)
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Multiple compression
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 95 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 47% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -1.6% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    71/ 100

    ROE 18% · Op margin 20%

    Balance sheet15%
    54/ 100

    D/E 1.18 · CR 0.67

    Insider convictionown.
    50/ 100

    Quiet

    Superinvestorown.
    79/ 100

    1 tracked holder · peak 16.1%

    Shareholder yield10%
    55/ 100

    1.26% yield + buyback runway

    Momentum5%
    30/ 100

    12% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    52/ 100

    EPS 8% · Rev 3%

    Risk deduction: 1 pattern flagged · possible quality trap (paying up). 2 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near 3%
    • • Operating margin stays around 20%
    • • Capital returns continue at current cadence
    Bear
    ~20%
    $68.40
    -19.6% / yr (5y)

    A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.

    Drivers
    • • Growth decelerates by ~300 bps for two consecutive quarters
    • • Refinancing at higher rates pressures interest coverage
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    11.0%
    10.5%
    12.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Management explanation of cause — one-off vs structural
    • • Analyst-revision direction over the next 1-2 weeks

  • Why Republic Services (RSG) is a Top Growth Stock for the Long-Term

    Zacks · just now

  • Top waste companies spent nearly $700M on M&A in Q1 2026

    Waste Dive · just now

  • Republic Services Shares Fall After Argus Downgrade

    MT Newswires · just now

    • Institutional Own.

    98.0%

    Insider Own.

    0.1%

    Dividend Yield

    1.26%

    Book Value / Share

    $38.86

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 6.8%

    Grand Portfolio

    • Chuck Akre

      Akre Capital Management · Q4 2025

      6.8%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.