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SHOP logo

SHOP

Shopify Inc.
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationRisk-First
$101.12 · 15min delay
β 2.64

A high-quality large-cap risk-flagged situation trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

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52-wk low $100.3152-wk high $182.19

Mkt Cap

$131.22B

P/E

—

PEG

2.41

P/B

9.79

Dividend

—

ROE

11.3%

About the business

Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The Company offers Shopify platform that enables merchants to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics, and reporting and access financing for running their business across all of their sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces. It also provides Shopify Payments, a fully integrated payment processing service that allows merchants to accept and process payment cards online and offline. In addition, the company engages in the sale of themes and apps; shipping labels through Shopify Shipping; point-of-sale hardware; advertising on the Shopify App Store; and Shop Campaigns for buyer acquisitions, as well as registration of domain names. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Ottawa, Canada.

Who would buy SHOP?

Consensus 33/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

3 8 4

Endorses

· 3 frameworks
  • Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First100/100

    Debt/Equity < 0.5 0.01 clears "< 0.50".

  • Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income100/100

    Payout Ratio < 70% 0.0% clears "< 70.0%".

  • Cyclical Value School· Deep Cyclical86/100

    Down > 30% from 52-wk high -44.5% clears "< -30.0%".

Insider activity · Positive

4 insiders bought shares in the open market

Strength 95/100

Over the last ~6 months 4 different insiders made open-market purchases totalling $236.1M, against $961K of selling (including planned 10b5-1 disposals). Multi-insider open-market buying is one of the more durable positive signals because it reflects fresh-dollar conviction rather than vesting or diversification.

In Prism's context

Insider buying adds modest supporting evidence alongside the framework read (Weak match).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
Goodman (Gail Faye)Director of IssuerOption exerciseMay 5, 20261,200$3.97$5KDirect
Goodman (Gail Faye)Director of IssuerOpen-market buyMay 5, 20261,200$115.42$139KDirect
Finkelstein (Harley Michael)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market buyMay 4, 2026675$126.86$86KDirect
Finkelstein (Harley Michael)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market buyMay 4, 2026675$126.86$86KDirect
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 30, 2026152,191$120.75$18.38MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 30, 2026142,159——Direct
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 29, 2026142,159$120.71$17.16MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 29, 2026129,945——Direct
Lutke (Tobias Albin)Director of IssuerOpen-market buyApr 29, 202660,000$121.07$7.26MIndirect
Lutke (Tobias Albin)Director of IssuerOpen-market buyApr 29, 202612,000$121.07$1.45MIndirect
Finkelstein (Harley Michael)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionApr 28, 20263,377——Direct
Finkelstein (Harley Michael)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market sellApr 28, 20261,717$123.51$212KDirect
Hertz (Jessica)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionApr 28, 20265,066——Direct
Hertz (Jessica)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market sellApr 28, 20262,505$123.51$309KDirect
Hertz (Jessica)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionApr 28, 2026738——Direct
Hertz (Jessica)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market sellApr 28, 2026366$123.51$45KDirect
Hertz (Jessica)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionApr 28, 20261,644——Direct
Hertz (Jessica)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market sellApr 28, 2026816$123.51$101KDirect
Hoffmeister (Jeff)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionApr 28, 20264,156——Direct
Hoffmeister (Jeff)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market sellApr 28, 20261,964$123.51$243KDirect
Niehaus (Jean)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionApr 28, 20261,096——Direct
Niehaus (Jean)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market sellApr 28, 2026412$123.50$51KDirect
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 28, 2026129,945$123.98$16.11MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 28, 2026119,237——Direct
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 27, 2026119,237$124.60$14.86MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 27, 2026114,897——Direct
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 24, 2026114,897$123.82$14.23MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 24, 2026111,164——Direct
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 23, 2026111,164$124.95$13.89MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 23, 2026108,705——Direct
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 22, 2026108,705$132.14$14.36MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 22, 2026118,142——Direct
Lutke (Tobias Albin)Director of IssuerOpen-market buyApr 22, 202660,000$132.15$7.93MIndirect
Lutke (Tobias Albin)Director of IssuerOpen-market buyApr 22, 202612,000$132.15$1.59MIndirect
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 21, 2026118,142$134.17$15.85MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 21, 2026136,067——Direct
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 20, 2026136,067$132.88$18.08MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 20, 2026154,243——Direct
Shopify IncIssuerOpen-market buyApr 17, 2026154,243$131.86$20.34MDirect
Shopify IncIssuerTransactionApr 17, 2026171,891——Direct

Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +0 sh

Price history

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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

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AI summaries

Members get a plain-English 'what matters now' brief plus an explanation of why the price is moving, grounded in Prism's framework scores.

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Full framework decision report

See how Lynch, Buffett, Graham, Greenblatt, Fisher and more each score this stock — with every rule, threshold, and reason exposed.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would SHOP do to your portfolio?

Add Shopify Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

SHOP is currently tagged:Risk-FirstWeak match (33/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Shopify Inc. · SHOP

SHOP: 49% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families mixed (medium confidence). Strongest support: D/E 0.01. Main risk to monitor: 384% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
49%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-4.9% → +19.1%
mid +7.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-31.7%
stress -55.0%
Data quality
93/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 48/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from valuation.

Composite
48
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
23/ 100

P/B 9.79× · FCF yield 1.0%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

384% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~20%
$27.17
-23.1% / yr (5y)

A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 16%
  • • Stranded asset value crystallises
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%
$20.90
-27.0% / yr (5y)

No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 16% operating margin and 34% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.

Global value comparison

Shopify Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Technology. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricSHOPGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—22.0×—23.0×
P/B9.79×4.00×—4.50×
Dividend yield—1.00%—1.40%
ROE11.3%
Earnings reaction explainer

SHOP missed by -8.7%.

Miss· -8.7%

Reported EPS $0.36 vs $0.39 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 15.7%.

  • Quality investorsNegative

    A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.

  • Growth investorsNegative

    Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.

  • Value investorsNeutral

    Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.

News & events

Next earnings

Wed, Aug 5 · consensus EPS $0.39 · last actual $0.36

  • Blackhawk Network (BHN) Brings Digital Gift Cards to TikTok Shop, Opening New Path for Brands to Reach Shoppers

    Business Wire · just now

  • Auburn Hills water main break repairs continue; reward in marijuana shop arson case; other stories

    CBS News Videos · just now

  • Retailers move towards predictive shopping with AI

    Retail Insight Network · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

2.41

P/B Ratio

9.79

EPS Growth

N/A

Revenue Growth

34.3%

Debt / Equity

0.01

Net Cash / Share

$4.56

Return on Equity

11.3%

Gross Margin

48.0%

Operating Margin

15.7%

FCF / Share

$1.03

Current Ratio

6.20

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Fama / French· Pure Value Factor0/100

    P/B < 1.5 is 9.79× — fails "< 1.50×".

  • Charlie Munger· Munger Elite Quality22/100

    ROE > 25% (elite) is 11.3% — fails "> 25.0%".

  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula25/100

    ROE > 20% is 11.3% — fails "> 20.0%".

See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
48/100
Medium-Low agreement
Signal families · 2 of 6 signal families mixed
Agreement: Medium-Low
  • Valuationnegative

    Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

    384% above fair valueReverse DCF: low expectations bar1.0% FCF yield (thin)
    31
    /100
  • Qualityneutral

    Quality is mixed — some strengths, some softness.

    50
    /100
  • Balance sheetpositive

    Capital structure is conservative and well-covered.

    D/E 0.01CR 6.20
    68
    /100
  • Momentumnegative

    Price has been weak — momentum is a headwind.

    Near 52w lows (1%)44% off 52w highβ 2.64 (elevated)
    40
    /100
  • Behaviouralpositive

    Insiders and / or superinvestors are accumulating — informed-money tailwind.

    4 insiders buying1 tracked holders · peak 9.1%
    72
    /100
  • Catalysts & eventsneutral

    Mixed catalyst picture.

    EPS miss (-9%)
    44
    /100
Positive drivers
  • • D/E 0.01
  • • CR 6.20
  • • 4 insiders buying
  • • 1 tracked holders · peak 9.1%
Key risks
  • • 384% above fair value
  • • Reverse DCF: low expectations bar
  • • 1.0% FCF yield (thin)
  • • Near 52w lows (1%)
  • • 44% off 52w high
Suggested diligence questions
  • 1. Is insider buying coming from operators with informed perspective on near-term results?
Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

Among 96 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 50% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.2% / yr.

Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
View full thesis
Quality20%
59/ 100

ROE 11% · Op margin 16%

Balance sheet15%
100/ 100

D/E 0.01 · CR 6.20

Insider convictionown.
68/ 100

4 insiders buying

Superinvestorown.
78/ 100

1 tracked holder · peak 9.1%

Shareholder yield10%
34/ 100

Buyback runway via FCF

Momentum5%
21/ 100

1% through 52w range

Growth5%
100/ 100

EPS — · Rev 34%

Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

Customise weights
Drivers
  • • Revenue growth holds near 34%
  • • Operating margin stays around 16%
  • • No major balance-sheet surprises
Bear
~35%
$15.67
-31.1% / yr (5y)

Cyclical earnings prove to be at peak; revenue stalls and the multiple, already low, drifts lower as estimates re-rate down.

Drivers
  • • Operating margin compresses 200–400 bps
  • • Multiple compresses as estimates roll back
  • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
Indicative weights
14.0%
—
16.0%

Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

What to watch on the next print
  • • Management explanation of cause — one-off vs structural
  • • Analyst-revision direction over the next 1-2 weeks

  • AI Shopping Agents and Agentic Commerce Research Report 2026: Adoption Trends and Execution Limits - Control of Interfaces and Infrastructure Defines Competitive Positioning

    GlobeNewswire · just now

  • ATF stripped licenses from fewer gun shops in 2025

    USA TODAY · just now

  • Smoothie King adding 'one-of-a-kind' pickle smoothie to its menu

    USA TODAY · just now

    • Institutional Own.

    74.1%

    Insider Own.

    0.2%

    Dividend Yield

    N/A

    Book Value / Share

    $10.33

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 3.8%

    Grand Portfolio

    • Stephen Mandel

      Lone Pine Capital · Q4 2025

      3.8%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.