SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.Real EstateREIT - RetailIncome
$203.86 · 15min delay
β 0.00A high-quality large-cap income stock trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $155.4452-wk high $208.28
Mkt Cap
$77.60B
P/E
—
PEG
4.58
P/B
12.83
Dividend
4.30%
ROE
116.8%
About the business
Simon Property Group, Inc. (NYSE:SPG) is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). Simon Property Group, L.P., or the Operating Partnership, is our majority-owned partnership subsidiary that owns all of our real estate properties and other assets. In this package, the terms Simon, we, our, or the Company refer to Simon Property Group, Inc., the Operating Partnership, and its subsidiaries. We own, develop and manage premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations, which consist primarily of malls, Premium Outlets, The Mills, and International Properties. At December 31, 2024, we owned or had an interest in 229 properties comprising 183 million square feet in North America, Asia and Europe. We also owned an 88% interest in The Taubman Realty Group, or TRG, which owns 22 regional, super-regional, and outlet malls in the U.S. and Asia. Additionally, at December 31, 2024, we had a 22.4% ownership interest in Klepierre, a publicly traded, Paris-based real estate company, which owns shopping centers in 14 European countries.
Who would buy SPG?
Consensus 31/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
3 4 8
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 116.8% clears "> 20.0%".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income88/100
Dividend Yield > 2% 4.3% clears "> 2.0%".
- AQR / Asness· Quality Factor86/100
ROE > 20% 116.8% clears "> 20.0%".
Insider activity · Mixed
Insider activity is mixed
Strength 30/100
Prism sees a mix of buys, sells, and option activity over the last 6 months. The pattern is neither a clear positive nor a clear negative. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 40,800 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Weak match, score 31/100) and the archetype read (Income).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KELLY KEVIN M | General Counsel | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 1,361 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FREY DONALD G | Officer and Treasurer | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 2,721 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| JACKSON MATTHEW A | Officer and Treasurer | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 1,361 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RODKIN GARY M | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 232 | $183.80 | $43K | Direct |
| LEWIS RANDALL J. | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 56 | $183.80 | $10K | Direct |
| SMITH DANIEL C. | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 355 | $183.80 | $65K | Direct |
| AEPPEL GLYN F | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 221 | $183.80 | $41K | Direct |
| STEWART MARTA R | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 196 | $183.80 | $36K | Direct |
| SELIG STEFAN M | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 206 | $183.80 | $38K | Direct |
| ROE PEGGY FANG | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 81 | $183.80 | $15K | Direct |
| JONES NINA P. | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 36 | $183.81 | $7K | Direct |
| LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 491 | $183.80 | $90K | Direct |
| GLASSCOCK LARRY C | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 373 | $183.80 | $69K | Direct |
| SIMON DAVID E | Chief Executive Officer | Transaction | Mar 2, 2026 | 20,619 | — | — | Direct |
| RULLI JOHN | Officer | Transaction | Mar 2, 2026 | 4,124 | — | — | Direct |
| MCDADE BRIAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Transaction | Mar 2, 2026 | 5,155 | — | — | Direct |
| REUILLE ADAM J. | Officer | Transaction | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,031 | — | — | Direct |
| SIMON ELI | Chief Operating Officer | Transaction | Mar 2, 2026 | 3,093 | — | — | Direct |
| KELLY KEVIN M | General Counsel | Transaction | Mar 2, 2026 | 516 | — | — | Direct |
| FREY DONALD G | Officer and Treasurer | Transaction | Mar 2, 2026 | 1,031 | — | — | Direct |
| FIVEL STEVEN E | General Counsel | Transaction | Mar 2, 2026 | 4,124 | — | — | Direct |
| RULLI JOHN | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 25, 2026 | 10,000 | $200.88 | $2.01M | Direct |
| CICCO MARTIN J | Director | Award / grant | Feb 5, 2026 | 299 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| LEWIS RANDALL J. | Director | Open-market buy | Dec 15, 2025 | 545 | $183.96 | $100K | Direct |
| LEWIS RANDALL J. | Director | Open-market buy | Nov 18, 2025 | 588 | $180.80 | $106K | Direct |
| SOKOLOV RICHARD S | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Nov 17, 2025 | 1,985 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 1.8% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +40,800 sh
Price history
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What would SPG do to your portfolio?
Add Simon Property Group, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
SPG is currently tagged:IncomeWeak match (31/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Simon Property Group, Inc. · SPG
SPG: 54% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 4 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: 22% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: D/E 4.77 (heavy).
Outperform prob.
54%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
+2.1% → +26.1%
mid +14.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-14.0%
stress -28.0%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 63/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
63
/ 100
Deep valueval.
30/ 100
P/B 12.83× · FCF yield 3.2%
Margin of safetyval.
82/ 100
22% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$337.97
+10.6% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 43%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$259.98
+5.0% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 43% operating margin holds, 19% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Simon Property Group, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Real Estate. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | SPG | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 9.8× | — | 19.0× |
| P/B | 12.83× | 0.90× | — | 1.40× |
| Dividend yield | 4.30% | 4.00% | — | 4.20% |
| ROE | 116.8% |
Earnings reaction explainer
SPG missed materially — -24.1% below consensus.
Reported EPS $1.22 vs $1.61 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: 43.4%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
- Growth investorsNegative
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
- Value investorsNegative
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
News & events
Next earnings
Mon, Aug 3 · consensus EPS $1.61 · last actual $1.22
Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Occupancy and FFO ...
GuruFocus.com · just now
Simon Property (SPG) Q1 FFO and Revenues Top Estimates
Zacks · just now
Evercore ISI Adjusts Price Target on Simon Property to $207 From $198, Maintains In Line Rating
MT Newswires · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
4.58
P/B Ratio
12.83
EPS Growth
16.7%
Revenue Growth
19.3%
Debt / Equity
4.77
Net Cash / Share
$-87.55
Return on Equity
116.8%
Gross Margin
81.6%
Operating Margin
43.4%
FCF / Share
$7.70
Current Ratio
0.41