TPL
Texas Pacific Land CorporationEnergyOil & Gas E&PQuality
$396.86 · 15min delay
β 0.68A high-quality large-cap compounder trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $269.2352-wk high $547.20
Mkt Cap
$27.37B
P/E
—
PEG
7.33
P/B
17.59
Dividend
—
ROE
36.5%
About the business
Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The Land and Resource Management segment manages surface acres of land, and oil and gas royalty interest in Permian Basin. This segment also engages in easements, such as transporting oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility, and subsurface wellbore easements. In addition, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche, sand, and other material, as well as sells land. The Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure development, and disposal solutions to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds produced water royalties. The company owns a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 33,000 additional net royalty acres, total of approximately 224,000 NRA located in the Permian Basin. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Who would buy TPL?
Consensus 51/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
6 8 1
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 36.5% clears "> 20.0%".
- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality89/100
ROE > 15% 36.5% clears "> 15.0%".
- Charlie Munger· Munger Elite Quality89/100
ROE > 25% (elite) 36.5% clears "> 25.0%".
Insider activity · Mixed
Insider activity is mixed
Strength 30/100
Prism sees a mix of buys, sells, and option activity over the last 6 months. The pattern is neither a clear positive nor a clear negative. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 43,694 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider activity is inconclusive here. The stock's case should lean on the framework verdict (Partial match, score 51/100) and the archetype read (Quality).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | May 7, 2026 | 1 | $401.00 | $401 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | May 6, 2026 | 1 | $419.00 | $419 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | May 5, 2026 | 1 | $433.00 | $433 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | May 4, 2026 | 1 | $439.00 | $439 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | May 1, 2026 | 1 | $433.00 | $433 | Indirect |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 23, 2026 | 1 | $437.00 | $437 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 22, 2026 | 1 | $438.00 | $438 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 21, 2026 | 1 | $442.00 | $442 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 20, 2026 | 1 | $428.00 | $428 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 16, 2026 | 1 | $424.00 | $424 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 15, 2026 | 1 | $419.00 | $419 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 14, 2026 | 1 | $414.00 | $414 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 13, 2026 | 1 | $415.00 | $415 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 10, 2026 | 1 | $407.00 | $407 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 9, 2026 | 1 | $402.00 | $402 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 8, 2026 | 3 | $449.00 | $1K | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 6, 2026 | 1 | $443.00 | $443 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Apr 2, 2026 | 1 | $443.00 | $443 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 1 | $470.00 | $470 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | $494.00 | $494 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 27, 2026 | 2 | $522.00 | $1K | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | $538.00 | $538 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | $535.00 | $535 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 23, 2026 | 1 | $529.00 | $529 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | $534.00 | $534 | Indirect |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | $527.00 | $527 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | $532.00 | $532 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | $525.00 | $525 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | $525.00 | $525 | Indirect |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 13, 2026 | 1 | $529.00 | $529 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | $532.00 | $532 | Indirect |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | $523.00 | $523 | Indirect |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | $527.00 | $527 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | $527.00 | $527 | Indirect |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | $526.00 | $526 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | $529.00 | $529 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | $530.00 | $530 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | $524.00 | $524 | Direct |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Open-market buy | Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | $517.00 | $517 | Direct |
| EPPS DONNA E | Director | Open-market sell | Feb 25, 2026 | 895 | $510.08 | $457K | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.2% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +43,694 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A notable drawdown — worth re-reading the framework verdicts below with the cheaper price in mind.
What would TPL do to your portfolio?
Add Texas Pacific Land Corporation at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
TPL is currently tagged:QualityPartial match (51/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Texas Pacific Land Corporation · TPL
TPL: 46% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families mixed (low confidence). Strongest support: ROE 36%. Main risk to monitor: 104% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
46%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-3.9% → +20.1%
mid +8.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-15.1%
stress -30.2%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 49/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 6 points off the composite.
Composite
49
/ 100
Deep valueval.
19/ 100
P/B 17.59× · FCF yield -0.2%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
104% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$253.00
-8.6% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 77%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$194.62
-13.3% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 77% operating margin holds, 21% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Texas Pacific Land Corporation vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Energy. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | TPL | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 14.8× | — | 9.0× |
| P/B | 17.59× | 2.60× | — | 1.20× |
| Dividend yield | — | 5.20% | — | 5.50% |
| ROE | 36.5% |
Earnings reaction explainer
TPL reported earnings; consensus comparison unavailable.
Actual EPS came in at $2.07, but no consensus estimate was available for comparison. The print should be judged against the company's own historicals.
- All audiencesNeutral
Without consensus, judge the print against the company's own trailing trend. Look for sequential acceleration / deceleration in revenue and margin.
What to watch on the next print
- • Next reporting date and whether estimates re-anchor
News & events
Next earnings
Wed, Aug 5 · last actual $2.07
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
7.33
P/B Ratio
17.59
EPS Growth
18.3%
Revenue Growth
20.8%
Debt / Equity
0.01
Net Cash / Share
$3.32
Return on Equity
36.5%
Gross Margin
93.2%
Operating Margin
77.2%
FCF / Share
$-0.82
Current Ratio
4.23